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How do you assume the coronavirus epidemic will affect your practicing, performing or teaching habits?

I'm going to continue using practice room pianos next week (before my term ends). However, I've bought some disinfectant spray (antiviral) this weekend, and plan to spray the keyboards of those practice room pianos.

Statistically, though, I assume the pianos will continue to be relatively safe for the next week - as the number of students using each keyboard will be relatively small (probably not more than 5 people over a day), and it's unlikely that anyone from such a small pool would have the virus already. So to some extent, spraying the keyboard may be a bit premature and panicky at least this coming week.
Originally Posted by 3am_stargazing
How do you assume the coronavirus epidemic will affect your practicing, performing or teaching habits?

I'm going to continue using practice room pianos next week (before my term ends). However, I've bought some disinfectant spray (antiviral) this weekend, and plan to spray the keyboards of those practice room pianos.

Statistically, though, I assume the pianos will continue to be relatively safe for the next week - as the number of students using each keyboard will be relatively small (probably not more than 5 people over a day), and it's unlikely that anyone from such a small pool would have the virus already. So to some extent, spraying the keyboard may be a bit premature and panicky at least this coming week.

Instead of spraying everything you touch with C2H5OH (don't forget all the door knobs, the piano stool, the piano lid, every human or animal or object you also touch..... wink ), why not just wash your hands, never ever touch your face with your hands (assume they're contaminated until proven otherwise, which of course you can never prove) - unless they've just been throughly washed -, and don't hug or kiss anyone?
I would not go spraying pianos--not sure what's in that stuff, but moisture that could get between the keys seems as if it could be bad for the action, or could damage the finish on the wood around the keyboard. (I wouldn't let anyone spray my piano, for sure.) If you feel you have to disinfect, you can get alcohol wipes that evaporate quickly.
The only way to be safe is to play in a hazmat suit. It said however on the news that coronavirus likes D sharps and often lives dormant in pianos inside the D sharp key. I understand many have said that playing with a hazmat suit is protective however many others have said this is fake news. I have therefore quarantined the D sharps on my piano and applied a 1cm radius which will mean the D or E's can only be touched with caution.
Bennevis is correct:
But one addition. Anti-viral sprays are not effective. Surface cleaners need to be a minimum of 70% isopropyl alcohol. Not sure that can be used on keys.

The length of time this virus can live on surface objects is not fully known but can be up to 9 days so you may risk spreading it to your piano music; when you get home, I would assume the music is infected and go through the same process. You also would need to factor in how much these pianos were played in the previous week based on the potentially long period the virus can still be transferred


https://www.infectioncontroltoday.c...surfaces-amid-novel-coronavirus-outbreak

The incidence rate is not fully known
The whole coronavirus panic is overblown. Just take reasonable precautions like I’m doing here and everything will be fine. smile

[Linked Image]
“Registered Piano Technician
Nate Reyburn
Posted 7 hours ago
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Peroxide is useful for deep cleaning on yellowed keytops. It can be a bleaching agent, so caution around the sharps. It's also really good at killing stuff.
Alcohol should be avoided, again because of sharps. It's a solvent for dye and shellac, both of which are used on some sharps. You really don't want to pick up black dye and move it around.” Pianotech PTG

Better pianos have ebony sharps so dye solvent is not an issue. I assume most piano practice rooms, except Juilliard and Curtis, pianos’ sharps are dyed.
Originally Posted by 3am_stargazing
How do you assume the coronavirus epidemic will affect your practicing, performing or teaching habits?
I'm going to continue to live my life. I'm a "clean" sort of person anyway.

I honestly do wonder sometimes if people today could handle things like a widespread Depression or the siege of Leningrad or The Blitz the way earlier generations could.
Originally Posted by rmns2bseen

I honestly do wonder sometimes if people today could handle things like a widespread Depression or the siege of Leningrad or The Blitz the way earlier generations could.

Four score and twenty years ago, people didn't handle the so-called "Spanish Flu" (which actually originated in Kansas) very well..........
What's the difference between catching coronavirus and catching a cold, or flu?
Originally Posted by Sanfrancisco

Better pianos have ebony sharps so dye solvent is not an issue. I assume most piano practice rooms, except Juilliard and Curtis, pianos’ sharps are dyed.


They'll still have black dye on the sides of the keys.
Originally Posted by bennevis
Originally Posted by 3am_stargazing
How do you assume the coronavirus epidemic will affect your practicing, performing or teaching habits?

I'm going to continue using practice room pianos next week (before my term ends). However, I've bought some disinfectant spray (antiviral) this weekend, and plan to spray the keyboards of those practice room pianos.

Statistically, though, I assume the pianos will continue to be relatively safe for the next week - as the number of students using each keyboard will be relatively small (probably not more than 5 people over a day), and it's unlikely that anyone from such a small pool would have the virus already. So to some extent, spraying the keyboard may be a bit premature and panicky at least this coming week.

Instead of spraying everything you touch with C2H5OH (don't forget all the door knobs, the piano stool, the piano lid, every human or animal or object you also touch..... wink ), why not just wash your hands, never ever touch your face with your hands (assume they're contaminated until proven otherwise, which of course you can never prove) - unless they've just been throughly washed -, and don't hug or kiss anyone?

You touch your face unconsciously though (many times an hour), so I don't think that's a very possible option. As for door knobs, I already open them with my sleeves rolled over my hands.

Washing hands at least once an hour is a good idea of course, in this epidemic.
Originally Posted by dogperson
Bennevis is correct:
But one addition. Anti-viral sprays are not effective. Surface cleaners need to be a minimum of 70% isopropyl alcohol. Not sure that can be used on keys.

The length of time this virus can live on surface objects is not fully known but can be up to 9 days so you may risk spreading it to your piano music; when you get home, I would assume the music is infected and go through the same process. You also would need to factor in how much these pianos were played in the previous week based on the potentially long period the virus can still be transferred


https://www.infectioncontroltoday.c...surfaces-amid-novel-coronavirus-outbreak

The incidence rate is not fully known

I'm going to lightly spray and then wipe down the keys with this stuff. On the website, the company claims it should kill (deactivate) coronaviruses.

I'll be helping other people as well. (Although as I said, I don't think the particular virus is likely to be here for another week).

It's designed for use on upholstery as well so I assume it will not remove dyes or cause any more damage than peoples' sweat could do to the keys and action anyway.
[Linked Image]
Originally Posted by Zaphod
What's the difference between catching coronavirus and catching a cold, or flu?

Unfortunately, it seems to be a lot more deadly than flu. (And it will spread in populations with no pre-existing immunity, unlike flu).

Case fatality rate varies a lot with age though, I'd rather not spread this to older family members.

[Linked Image]

Also, in a worst case scenario (like in Italy at the moment), hospital beds could become full, and then the case fatality rates could rise a lot.

https://twitter.com/epsilon3141/status/1236288169672355843
Originally Posted by rmns2bseen
Originally Posted by 3am_stargazing
How do you assume the coronavirus epidemic will affect your practicing, performing or teaching habits?
I'm going to continue to live my life. I'm a "clean" sort of person anyway.

I honestly do wonder sometimes if people today could handle things like a widespread Depression or the siege of Leningrad or The Blitz the way earlier generations could.

The millions of people who died in events like WW2, probably wish people had handled things better.

In this epidemic, it will be mostly older people who will be killed, and we surely have a lot of responsibility to try to minimize its spread for their sake?

I know people are panicking early (this week). But in Italy things are already getting out of control (the number of deaths per day is increasing at a frightening speed there).
Originally Posted by 3am_stargazing

You touch your face unconsciously though (many times an hour), so I don't think that's a very possible option.

It is a very possible option, and I am deadly serious.

Touching your face with your hands is a sure way to infect yourself with coronavirus - or any virus -, if you have it on your hands. Just think of what your hands have touched in the past ten minutes, if you haven't been sitting at the piano and tickling the ivories. The virus cannot penetrate intact skin, but it penetrates mucous membranes (eyes, nose, mouth).
Originally Posted by bennevis
Originally Posted by 3am_stargazing

You touch your face unconsciously though (many times an hour), so I don't think that's a very possible option.

It is a very possible option, and I am deadly serious.

Touching your face with your hands is a sure way to infect yourself with coronavirus - or any virus -, if you have it on your hands. Just think of what your hands have touched in the past ten minutes, if you haven't been sitting at the piano and tickling the ivories. The virus cannot penetrate intact skin, but it penetrates mucous membranes (eyes, nose, mouth).

Exactly it's one of the main ways to infect yourself, and you unconsciously will touch your face.

So just washing your hands is not enough. We will also need to disinfect the surfaces we touch, before we touch them.

If one is going to play a piano (which other people have played in the last 72 hours), then just washing one's hands before and after will unfortunately not be enough, as one might touch one's face multiple times in that hour without realizing it.

Spraying the key surfaces with a disinfectant (which should deactivate viruses), and then wiping it off, is the only way I can think of to solve the problem. Although of course the safest option would be to not play any public or shared pianos from now on.
Originally Posted by Zaphod
What's the difference between catching coronavirus and catching a cold, or flu?

Morbidity rate. Last time I checked it is around 3.4% for coronavirus vs. 0.1% for flu.
Colds, flu and corona spread through coughs and sneezes.
What I've read is that cv can infect from particles on exposed surfaces for up to 14 days.
Much useful information from (retired) UK Dr. John Campbell on his YT channel here:
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCF9IOB2TExg3QIBu
As to the question of whether or not some people are getting overly anxious...we, in the USA are behind where we need to be (as of this date) in availability of diagnostic tests; we are (according to medical experts) at least a year out (at best) from a vaccine, and... we have no therapeutics to help kill the virus before it kills us. So, yes, I am concerned. So, e.g., is the government of Italy as evidenced by the decision to shut down an entire region very important to the country's economy.

Corona virus is frightening, because it is so easy to get infected with it, and the morbidity statistics are so high. Ebola and Marburg are more virulent with morbidity rates up to 90%, but the infection rates are lower. Read about that here: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6249600/

Finally, I **think** that if you take the same precautions you would take during flu season you would be prudent in doing so. Those things will help keep YOU safe. And, if YOU get sick, and want to help us, you could wear a mask, clean your hands before touching the practice or studio pianos.

This may all be "moot" soon if schools start closing.
I think we'll start seeing that happening sooner than later.

Aaargh. Enough virus talk tonight. Back to thinking about the piano and music...
Originally Posted by bennevis
Four score and twenty years ago, people didn't handle the so-called "Spanish Flu" (which actually originated in Kansas) very well..........
Something like that today would cause complete societal breakdown. A hint of a toilet paper shortage and you have people tackling each other in Costcos in some places. (My area of the country is still pretty serene. We're usually kind of stoic in my neck of the woods anyway.)
Originally Posted by 3am_stargazing

The millions of people who died in events like WW2, probably wish people had handled things better.

If only they had had our social-media-fueled freakouts, the Nazis could've ruled the world.
For some reason people have stripped supermarket shelves of toilet paper in my neck of the woods. I plan to handle lessons by using hand sanitizing gel on my hands before and after a lesson... oh, no, can't do that... the shelves have been stripped of tbat too! 😯
Originally Posted by Bett
For some reason people have stripped supermarket shelves of toilet paper in my neck of the woods. I plan to handle lessons by using hand sanitizing gel on my hands before and after a lesson... oh, no, can't do that... the shelves have been stripped of tbat too! 😯

Well I guess it'll be the Sears-Roebuck catalog down by the crick. grin
The C virus is here in North Vancouver. Perhaps I shall stop teaching altogether ,I just do not know what else to do ?
Originally Posted by Lady Bird
The C virus is here in North Vancouver. Perhaps I shall stop teaching altogether ,I just do not know what else to do ?


The virus becomes progressively more serious the older we are—- read everything you can from legitimate sources and decide. If I were over 60 and teaching, I would personally cancel lessons for awhile and limit exposure to others.
This is a big topic of conversation in the movie theatre business too. The new James Bond movie has been moved to the fall and while nothing else has been moved (other than the Trolls movie that's going to move into the weekend that James Bond had originally planned to be in) everything seems to be a bit up in the air as far as what's going to happen in the future.

We live in interesting times.....
I hope our fellow PWers who are travelling can get home safely.

Originally Posted by 3am_stargazing
Originally Posted by bennevis
Originally Posted by 3am_stargazing

You touch your face unconsciously though (many times an hour), so I don't think that's a very possible option.

It is a very possible option, and I am deadly serious.

Touching your face with your hands is a sure way to infect yourself with coronavirus - or any virus -, if you have it on your hands. Just think of what your hands have touched in the past ten minutes, if you haven't been sitting at the piano and tickling the ivories. The virus cannot penetrate intact skin, but it penetrates mucous membranes (eyes, nose, mouth).

Exactly it's one of the main ways to infect yourself, and you unconsciously will touch your face.

So just washing your hands is not enough. We will also need to disinfect the surfaces we touch, before we touch them.


You're misunderstanding my message, which is about your own self-preservation. You need to change your personal habits right now. Don't touch your face except with tissue paper etc.

The message is: Don't touch your face with unwashed hands. It's on the NHS website.

If you live like a hermit and don't ever leave your home, and nobody - not even your own family - is allowed in, you can disinfect everything in your home before you touch it. Are you going to go around with your spray disinfecting the doors of every building you walk in, and everything you have to use that isn't your own, each and every time before you touch it? What happens if someone is allergic to the stuff in your spray? Can you remember to wash your hands thoroughly every time before you touch your face?
Originally Posted by Bett
For some reason people have stripped supermarket shelves of toilet paper in my neck of the woods. I plan to handle lessons by using hand sanitizing gel on my hands before and after a lesson... oh, no, can't do that... the shelves have been stripped of tbat too! 😯

I thought it was only the uptight Poms who would panic buy, but it seems that laid-back Aussies are not so laid-back after all........ smirk

In case my neck of the woods goes into lockdown like northern Italy, I already have enough provisions in my home to survive for one year (not!) - which is how long the pandemic would last with the most optimistic AI modelling.
Originally Posted by bennevis
You're misunderstanding my message, which is about your own self-preservation. You need to change your personal habits right now. Don't touch your face except with tissue paper etc.

No, we understand your message. We just question how realistic it is to think that people will actually be able to follow your advice. It's a bit like saying: "Playing the Hammerklavier sonata is actually quite easy. You just need to make sure not to play too slowly and not to play any wrong notes."

I think cleaning a surface that you are about to touch for a prolonged time, and that you know that other people have touched before you for a prolonged time, and before which those other people sat in perfect sneezing and coughing distance for a prolonged time too (i.e. keyboard of a practice room piano) is a sensible precaution. Because it is almost guaranteed (for normal mortals at least) that you *will* touch your face before the practice session is over.

You are not the first to give this "don't touch your face" advice, and check out how well it worked for the others:

Originally Posted by 3am_stargazing
Originally Posted by dogperson
Bennevis is correct:
But one addition. Anti-viral sprays are not effective. Surface cleaners need to be a minimum of 70% isopropyl alcohol. Not sure that can be used on keys.

The length of time this virus can live on surface objects is not fully known but can be up to 9 days so you may risk spreading it to your piano music; when you get home, I would assume the music is infected and go through the same process. You also would need to factor in how much these pianos were played in the previous week based on the potentially long period the virus can still be transferred


https://www.infectioncontroltoday.c...surfaces-amid-novel-coronavirus-outbreak

The incidence rate is not fully known

I'm going to lightly spray and then wipe down the keys with this stuff. On the website, the company claims it should kill (deactivate) coronaviruses.

I'll be helping other people as well. (Although as I said, I don't think the particular virus is likely to be here for another week).

It's designed for use on upholstery as well so I assume it will not remove dyes or cause any more damage than peoples' sweat could do to the keys and action anyway.
[Linked Image]


You might want to read this from the Daily Mail. ‘There is no evidence this is effective against coronavirus

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/...uhan-coronavirus-finally-reached-UK.html

Even Dettol admits it is ineffective
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/10870648/dettol-coronavirus-wuhan-label/

I suggest you check out what to use from a legitimate government site
Originally Posted by JoBert
Originally Posted by bennevis
You're misunderstanding my message, which is about your own self-preservation. You need to change your personal habits right now. Don't touch your face except with tissue paper etc.

No, we understand your message. We just question how realistic it is to think that people will actually be able to follow your advice. It's a bit like saying: "Playing the Hammerklavier sonata is actually quite easy. You just need to make sure not to play too slowly and not to play any wrong notes."

I think cleaning a surface that you are about to touch for a prolonged time, and that you know that other people have touched before you for a prolonged time, and before which those other people sat in perfect sneezing and coughing distance for a prolonged time too (i.e. keyboard of a practice room piano) is a sensible precaution. Because it is almost guaranteed (for normal mortals at least) that you *will* touch your face before the practice session is over.

As you know, I never give advice which I don't - or can't - follow myself. I never ever touch my face with unwashed hands, without a clean tissue or hanky.

Because of my job, I myself have changed my personal habits several decades ago, and have adhered to what I am advising everyone in PW now, as have most others in my profession. I can shake hands etc with no problems because I don't touch my face. ("Elbowing" - or whatever it's called - as an alternative is frankly silly.... crazy).

BTW, 'cleaning' surfaces is not the same as sterilizing them. Don't rely on whatever you're using.....unless maybe if it's 100% alcohol.

We're not just talking about coughs and colds anymore.........
Originally Posted by JoBert



About the best example of viral marketing and getting your message out for free I can imagine. As long as you don't value being embarrassed very highly.

I can easily imagine myself as that poor woman. The more I try and think about not touching my face the more I seem to do exactly that. I don't know if I'm just noticing something I've always been doing or whether trying not to just results in me doing.

It is the sort of behaviour change I'll only achieve over months of consciously catching myself out when I do it.

In the meantime I'll need to do less effective measure as well.
Just a note about the mortality figures for COVID-19: currently they are almost certainly overestimates because there are no reliable figures yet about the total number infected. Since some cases are mild or asymptomatic (especially among young people), this is hard to determine. It will be a while before we have studies of sample populations testing for antibodies to find the full number exposed.

The epidemic is still concerning, of course, but it's good to be aware of the limits of our knowledge.
Don’t forget cell phones. Medical professionals have judged that cleaning cell phones may prove a more important health measure than wearing facemasks.

All the major phone-makers warn against cleaning your phone with alcohol, hand sanitizer, or sterilizing wipes because it can damage the protective coating on the screen.

Damaging this layer could make it easier for germs to stick to the device.

Modern phones tend to be water-resistant, so you could clean your phone with regular soap and water and a single-use paper towel. But verify your phone is water resistant beforehand.

I use Optico brand lens cleaning wipes for cleaning my phone as well as computer monitors and the lenses in my movie projector and even my glasses.

I get them at Costco.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oberammergau

Anyone going? I know people who were planning to go.
Originally Posted by jdw
Just a note about the mortality figures for COVID-19: currently they are almost certainly overestimates because there are no reliable figures yet about the total number infected. Since some cases are mild or asymptomatic (especially among young people), this is hard to determine. It will be a while before we have studies of sample populations testing for antibodies to find the full number exposed.

The epidemic is still concerning, of course, but it's good to be aware of the limits of our knowledge.

A likely more accurate number comes from South Korea, which has an aggressive testing regime. As of a few days ago, there were 50 deaths from 7313 infections, giving a mortality rate of 0.68%.
Originally Posted by dogperson
Originally Posted by 3am_stargazing
Originally Posted by dogperson
Bennevis is correct:
But one addition. Anti-viral sprays are not effective. Surface cleaners need to be a minimum of 70% isopropyl alcohol. Not sure that can be used on keys.

The length of time this virus can live on surface objects is not fully known but can be up to 9 days so you may risk spreading it to your piano music; when you get home, I would assume the music is infected and go through the same process. You also would need to factor in how much these pianos were played in the previous week based on the potentially long period the virus can still be transferred


https://www.infectioncontroltoday.c...surfaces-amid-novel-coronavirus-outbreak

The incidence rate is not fully known

I'm going to lightly spray and then wipe down the keys with this stuff. On the website, the company claims it should kill (deactivate) coronaviruses.

I'll be helping other people as well. (Although as I said, I don't think the particular virus is likely to be here for another week).

It's designed for use on upholstery as well so I assume it will not remove dyes or cause any more damage than peoples' sweat could do to the keys and action anyway.
[Linked Image]


You might want to read this from the Daily Mail. ‘There is no evidence this is effective against coronavirus

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/...uhan-coronavirus-finally-reached-UK.html

Even Dettol admits it is ineffective
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/10870648/dettol-coronavirus-wuhan-label/

I suggest you check out what to use from a legitimate government site

However, if you study the ingredients, it has Anionic Surfactants - and this does kill enveloped viruses. There's no reason why the novel coronavirus will not be killed (deactivated) by a chemical which kills other coronaviruses.
Originally Posted by jdw
Just a note about the mortality figures for COVID-19: currently they are almost certainly overestimates because there are no reliable figures yet about the total number infected. Since some cases are mild or asymptomatic (especially among young people), this is hard to determine. It will be a while before we have studies of sample populations testing for antibodies to find the full number exposed.

The epidemic is still concerning, of course, but it's good to be aware of the limits of our knowledge.

The current death rate estimates will also be underestimates in another direction, which is time. Most of the cases are not resolved yet, so a lot of the deaths are lagging the diagnoses.
Originally Posted by 3am_stargazing
Originally Posted by dogperson
Originally Posted by 3am_stargazing
Originally Posted by dogperson
Bennevis is correct:
But one addition. Anti-viral sprays are not effective. Surface cleaners need to be a minimum of 70% isopropyl alcohol. Not sure that can be used on keys.

The length of time this virus can live on surface objects is not fully known but can be up to 9 days so you may risk spreading it to your piano music; when you get home, I would assume the music is infected and go through the same process. You also would need to factor in how much these pianos were played in the previous week based on the potentially long period the virus can still be transferred


https://www.infectioncontroltoday.c...surfaces-amid-novel-coronavirus-outbreak

The incidence rate is not fully known

I'm going to lightly spray and then wipe down the keys with this stuff. On the website, the company claims it should kill (deactivate) coronaviruses.

I'll be helping other people as well. (Although as I said, I don't think the particular virus is likely to be here for another week).

It's designed for use on upholstery as well so I assume it will not remove dyes or cause any more damage than peoples' sweat could do to the keys and action anyway.
[Linked Image]


You might want to read this from the Daily Mail. ‘There is no evidence this is effective against coronavirus

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/...uhan-coronavirus-finally-reached-UK.html

Even Dettol admits it is ineffective
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/10870648/dettol-coronavirus-wuhan-label/

I suggest you check out what to use from a legitimate government site

However, if you study the ingredients, it has Anionic Surfactants - and this does kill enveloped viruses. There's no reason why the novel coronavirus will not be killed (deactivated) by a chemical which kills other coronaviruses.


Amazing that the manufacturer says it doesn’t work. Glad you’re satisfied
Originally Posted by Stubbie
Originally Posted by jdw
Just a note about the mortality figures for COVID-19: currently they are almost certainly overestimates because there are no reliable figures yet about the total number infected. Since some cases are mild or asymptomatic (especially among young people), this is hard to determine. It will be a while before we have studies of sample populations testing for antibodies to find the full number exposed.

The epidemic is still concerning, of course, but it's good to be aware of the limits of our knowledge.

A likely more accurate number comes from South Korea, which has an aggressive testing regime. As of a few days ago, there were 50 deaths from 7313 infections, giving a mortality rate of 0.68%.

There have been other estimates in that range, however, I think there is a systematic problem here. From an article on Friday or Saturday:
Quote
"The best estimates now of the overall mortality rate for COVID-19 is somewhere between 0.1% and 1%," Adm. Brett Giroir, assistant secretary for health at HHS, says. "That's lower than you heard probably in many reports ... it's not likely in the range of 2 to 3%"

Something I think one should consider is that if the fatality rate of COVID-19 is really only from 0.1% to 1%, then with the 366 people that have been confirmed to have died in Italy, this would suggest that from 36,600 people (1% death rate) to 366,000 people (0.1% death rate) actually have COVID-19 in Italy.

Furthermore, 3,892 people have died worldwide form COVID-19 as of this moment. Does it make it better to think that from 389,200 - 3,892,000 people actually have COVID-19 right now? Because only 111,362 cases have been reported as of this moment, which would mean that if Dr. Giroir is right, there are from 277,838 - 3,780,638 more cases that have not been reported. If he is right, this would also mean that from 71.3% - 97.1% of all COVID-19 cases are actually going unreported so far.

It comes down to this: Would you rather believe that the death rate is higher, or that there are more people unreported people are sick? Because the former is scary, but the if you think about it, the latter is far scarier!
Originally Posted by bennevis
Originally Posted by 3am_stargazing
Originally Posted by bennevis
Originally Posted by 3am_stargazing

You touch your face unconsciously though (many times an hour), so I don't think that's a very possible option.

It is a very possible option, and I am deadly serious.

Touching your face with your hands is a sure way to infect yourself with coronavirus - or any virus -, if you have it on your hands. Just think of what your hands have touched in the past ten minutes, if you haven't been sitting at the piano and tickling the ivories. The virus cannot penetrate intact skin, but it penetrates mucous membranes (eyes, nose, mouth).

Exactly it's one of the main ways to infect yourself, and you unconsciously will touch your face.

So just washing your hands is not enough. We will also need to disinfect the surfaces we touch, before we touch them.


You're misunderstanding my message, which is about your own self-preservation. You need to change your personal habits right now. Don't touch your face except with tissue paper etc.

The message is: Don't touch your face with unwashed hands. It's on the NHS website.

If you live like a hermit and don't ever leave your home, and nobody - not even your own family - is allowed in, you can disinfect everything in your home before you touch it. Are you going to go around with your spray disinfecting the doors of every building you walk in, and everything you have to use that isn't your own, each and every time before you touch it? What happens if someone is allergic to the stuff in your spray? Can you remember to wash your hands thoroughly every time before you touch your face?

I understand your message - my point is that you will still touch your face unconsciously.

That's why, not touching your face is not sufficient. You have to try not to touch your face. You have to wash your hands regularly. But we also have to disinfect surfaces that we touch inbetween those hand washes.
This virus will surely kill some number of people. Panicking would likely kill ten to a hundred times more. There is too much excitement about this outbreak already, and unfortunately it looks like there will be more to come.

There are a number of things not commonly considered. We have, for example, no way of knowing whether the published numbers of infected persons is at all a precise indicator of the scope of the disease. Partly because nobody tests the quality of the virus tests (they might be completely wrong in diagnosing people), partly because an unknown number of infected people never felt ill enough to go to the doctor.

Also, there a many other viral diseases out there going their rounds; these also kill, and the new virus is just an addition to the collection.

Moreover, as far as I have learned, this new virus is very slowly mutating, as compared to the flu, so that in itself should make it less of a problem than the flu.

The world may still come to an end, but it will likely be panick causing it. Not a disease.
Originally Posted by dogperson


Amazing that the manufacturer says it doesn’t work. Glad you’re satisfied

The manufacturer doesn't say that it doesn't work. They simply admit they haven't tested it on COVID-19 (although they have tested it on other coronaviruses).

Here is their statement about this issue:

"Specific Dettol products have demonstrated effectiveness (>99.9% inactivation) against coronavirus strains from the same family as the 2019 Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) in third party laboratory testing, when used in accordance with the directions for use. These products are: Dettol Antibacterial Surface Cleanser Spray, Dettol Antibacterial Surface Cleanser Wipes, Dettol All-In-One Disinfectant Spray, and Dettol Disinfectant Liquid.

Given the structural similarities of the COVID-19 virus to the coronavirus strains tested previously (SARS-CoV, MERS-CoV, Human Coronavirus), and based on the evidence available to us, we would expect our Dettol products (listed above) to be effective against the new strain. Definitive scientific confirmation of this, as with all other commercially available virucides, can only be provided once testing against COVID-19 Coronavirus has been conducted, following release of the strain by relevant health authorities.

The CDC and World Health Organization specifically advises people to wash hands often with soap and water or use an alcohol-based hand sanitizer as a key preventative measure against the spread Coronavirus COVID-19. A good quality disinfectant will help reduce risk to families. Our Dettol Hand Sanitizers use ethanol (alcohol) as the germ disinfection active ingredient in line with CDC and WHO recommendations.Specific Dettol products have demonstrated effectiveness (>99.9% inactivation) against coronavirus strains from the same family as the 2019 Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) in third party laboratory testing, when used in accordance with the directions for use. These products are: Dettol Antibacterial Surface Cleanser Spray, Dettol Antibacterial Surface Cleanser Wipes, Dettol All-In-One Disinfectant Spray, and Dettol Disinfectant Liquid.

Given the structural similarities of the COVID-19 virus to the coronavirus strains tested previously (SARS-CoV, MERS-CoV, Human Coronavirus), and based on the evidence available to us, we would expect our Dettol products (listed above) to be effective against the new strain. Definitive scientific confirmation of this, as with all other commercially available virucides, can only be provided once testing against COVID-19 Coronavirus has been conducted, following release of the strain by relevant health authorities.

The CDC and World Health Organization specifically advises people to wash hands often with soap and water or use an alcohol-based hand sanitizer as a key preventative measure against the spread Coronavirus COVID-19. A good quality disinfectant will help reduce risk to families. Our Dettol Hand Sanitizers use ethanol (alcohol) as the germ disinfection active ingredient in line with CDC and WHO recommendations.

https://www.dettol.co.uk/about-us/understanding-coronavirus/
For anyone travelling - including to concert venues, of course - take heed of this missive, which I received from (US based) MedicineNet today:

Dr. Luis Ostrosky, professor of infectious diseases at UT Health, offers these tips in a university news release to keep yourself healthy while traveling:

Frequently wash hands with soap and water -- time the wash to the "Happy Birthday" song to ensure germs are washed away.

Carry a hand sanitizing gel with at least 60% alcohol as a backup when hand-washing isn't available.

Don't touch your face. This is a tough one, because people do this without realizing it many times an hour. Try to be more aware of the habit.

If you don't have to touch that doorknob, railing or countertop, don't. Like the cold and flu virus, coronavirus can be coughed or sneezed onto surfaces.

Don't wear a face mask routinely in public. According to the CDC, in everyday scenarios, face masks aren't effective in cutting down on your risk of infection, and might even raise the odds of infection as people touch their face to readjust the mask. A mask might be of help if you are sitting next to someone who is coughing. But otherwise, only wear a mask if you are already sick, to prevent spread to others.

Keep yourself informed, preferably by reputable sources such as the CDC's travel notices, the U.S. Department of State's travel advisories, and the World Health Organization's situation reports.

Specifically for Americans: Should you travel at all?
Read this:

Dr. Susan Wootton, an infectious disease pediatrician at the University of Texas Health Science Center in Houston, has developed this nine-point checklist to help you decide whether your trip is a go or a no.

If your answer matches the response in parentheses to each question, move on to the next question. If not, you may need to rethink your travel plans.

Are the travelers healthy? (Yes.)

Have the travelers received flu shots? (Yes.)

Do any of the travelers or anyone the travelers have had contact with have any underlying high-risk conditions for the virus, such as chronic obstructive pulmonary disease? (No.)

Are any travel restrictions for your destination listed on the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention or U.S. Department of State websites? (No.)

Is the trip a cruise (which Wootton advises against)? (No.)

Are there any major events after the trip that would cause problems if you and your fellow travelers were quarantined for a period of time? (No.)

Would anxiety during travel ruin the trip for you? (No.)

Are you reasonably able to take common preventative measures -- such as washing hands and keeping hands away from the face -- during travel? (Yes.)

Would your regret be manageable if you or a family member caught COVID-19? (Yes.)

If you've successfully made your way to the end of the checklist, your planned vacation may still be a "go."
BYW, the ticket price for Oberammergau is $500, the one scheduled for September wasn't cancelled (not sure about those scheduled for earlier)
In my part of the world, the only thing that seems to be falling is the financial markets. I don't have a problem taking public transit across town for weekly lessons at the local conservatory. My teacher have no problem heading down to the conservatory either. We use Yamaha Clavinova DPs in class without wiping the keys or use hand sanitizer. Not sure about the students using the acoustic pianos downstairs at the conservatory. I only use the student pianos for making recordings. For practice I just use the keyboard at home.

Some people are out wearing masks but overall not many. Even the Asian supermarkets in the area are busy. With a lot of Chinese coming & going, not sure how many came back from China recently. A lot of shops have hand sanitizer or tissues for hand wipe at the door. The # cases is not enough to lockdown entire cities.
We have our first confirmed CV in our small town outside of Seattle. Did my multi-modal trip for my piano lesson and it’s apparent people are working from home. Lots of social distancing on the ferry and light rail. Not much traffic on I-5. My teacher is gearing up for possible Skype/Facetime lessons. So far, no cancellations for her lessons Have to admit it felt good to get out of the house. And I didn’t touch my face once.
Living within 15 miles of most of the U.S. deaths (so far) from covid-19, I have begun thinking of potential quarantine at home or the currently recommended “social distancing” as a time for lots of concentrated piano practice.

There were a few empty seats at Hélène Grimaud’s performance last week, but I saw only one person wearing a mask. Is that the last concert I attend for a while? Large public gatherings are discouraged; many events are cancelled. I felt an intensely appreciative mood in the hall, and gratitude for the music. Her third encore was The Drowned Cathedral. That will stay with me.
Hi neighbor PianogrlNW! Stay healthy!
I’m listening to your Gnossienne from the ABF Recital: what gorgeous mysteries! I thought of yours when Grimaud played Gnossiennes IV and I.
Even some of us who live in areas not yet touched by the virus - it's only a matter of time, they say, and as a major cruise ship destination it may be sooner rather than later here - may be thinking of adjusting our contacts with society. The information we are getting is that one problem with the COVID-19 virus is that it has a long incubation period. People could be carrying the virus and unknowingly passing it on to others long before they develop symptoms.

If I were hosting my monthly recital group at the end of this month, I would think twice and poll members before doing so. As it is, I am not hosting, so no other hands will be on my piano, but I may not attend if we go ahead with the monthly recital. Yes, you may say it's over reacting, but I am in that age group considered the highest risk of serious complications if I were to contract the virus. At the moment, overkill or not, I'm staying home alone for some time to come.

Regards,
Originally Posted by BruceD
Yes, you may say it's over reacting, but I am in that age group considered the highest risk of serious complications if I were to contract the virus. At the moment, overkill or not, I'm staying home alone for some time to come.
Regards,


It's not overkill at all. You have to look after yourself.
Originally Posted by johnstaf
Originally Posted by BruceD
Yes, you may say it's over reacting, but I am in that age group considered the highest risk of serious complications if I were to contract the virus. At the moment, overkill or not, I'm staying home alone for some time to come.
Regards,


It's not overkill at all. You have to look after yourself.


I’m doing exactly what Bruce is doing as there has been no testing done for Coronavirus in my little part of the world. I’m essentially self-quarantining, which includes home grocery delivery. I will continue to do this until there is more incidence data.

I’m lucky to work at home, but was horrified on Sunday to receive an email from my company they wanted me to fly (a three airport trip) to a US area with known Coronavirus. It was not presented as an option. Ultimately, the trip was cancelled but not by my employer. ... perhaps says something about the intersection of risk and business profit and the choice that was made.
Originally Posted by dogperson

I’m lucky to work at home, but was horrified on Sunday to receive an email from my company they wanted me to fly (a three airport trip) to a US area with known Coronavirus. It was not presented as an option. Ultimately, the trip was cancelled but not by my employer. ... perhaps says something about the intersection of risk and business profit and the choice that was made.


Words fail me.
Originally Posted by dogperson
I’m lucky to work at home, but was horrified on Sunday to receive an email from my company they wanted me to fly (a three airport trip) to a US area with known Coronavirus. It was not presented as an option. Ultimately, the trip was cancelled but not by my employer. ... perhaps says something about the intersection of risk and business profit and the choice that was made.


In the company I work for, it's the other way around: we are not allowed to visit our German subsidiary, because all of Germany is considered high risk (which I consider ludicrous).
Originally Posted by BruceD
Even some of us who live in areas not yet touched by the virus - it's only a matter of time, they say, and as a major cruise ship destination it may be sooner rather than later here - may be thinking of adjusting our contacts with society. The information we are getting is that one problem with the COVID-19 virus is that it has a long incubation period. People could be carrying the virus and unknowingly passing it on to others long before they develop symptoms.

If I were hosting my monthly recital group at the end of this month, I would think twice and poll members before doing so. As it is, I am not hosting, so no other hands will be on my piano, but I may not attend if we go ahead with the monthly recital. Yes, you may say it's over reacting, but I am in that age group considered the highest risk of serious complications if I were to contract the virus. At the moment, overkill or not, I'm staying home alone for some time to come.


You're not over-reacting, and even if you were, better safe than sorry! Italy is on lockdown now but life goes on, hopefully with more sense of responsibility towards higher-risk people. Our healthcare service is free of charge and well-functioning, but resources are limited and doctors are already faced with tough choices - if you have an accident now there may not be an ICU bed available for you. Everybody has elderly or immunocompromised relatives or friends, and the least we can do is avoid catching this virus and passing it on.

It's all over the world now and I honestly hope that other countries will quickly understand how serious the situation is. It's not just a problem of China or Italy. The virus is already everywhere and we don't even know how and when it got there. Just stay home! At least we have our pianos.
Originally Posted by sinophilia
It's all over the world now and I honestly hope that other countries will quickly understand how serious the situation is. It's not just a problem of China or Italy. The virus is already everywhere and we don't even know how and when it got there. Just stay home! At least we have our pianos.


Absolutely, the idea that "it's not here so we can just carry on as normal" is crazy. The situation in Italy now will most likely be replicated in many/most other countries in the coming days/weeks.
There are things we can do individually to limit our risk, and things that can be done at a societal level to mitigate the impact, but carrying on as normal is most certainly not one of them.
Absolutely. Surely it's easier to contain by acting early.
I thought the point of slowing the spread wasn't necessarily to minimise the number of people who get infected but to keep the caseload within bounds that the healthcare system can manage. From what I understand Northern Italy failed to do this, and as a result the number of deaths has spiked because people who would have responded to treatment haven't been getting it.

Tweet with a graphic to describe what I mean.
Originally Posted by KevinM
I thought the point of slowing the spread wasn't necessarily to minimise the number of people who get infected but to keep the caseload within bounds that the healthcare system can manage. From what I understand Northern Italy failed to do this, and as a result the number of deaths has spiked because people who would have responded to treatment haven't been getting it.


I believe that is true. If the incubation period is indeed 10 days, or longer, then preventing the disease spreading to nearly everyone would probably be hopeless. What can be achieved is stretching the period of time, during which people fall ill, as much out as possible.
Originally Posted by QuasiUnaFantasia
Originally Posted by KevinM
I thought the point of slowing the spread wasn't necessarily to minimise the number of people who get infected but to keep the caseload within bounds that the healthcare system can manage. From what I understand Northern Italy failed to do this, and as a result the number of deaths has spiked because people who would have responded to treatment haven't been getting it.


I believe that is true. If the incubation period is indeed 10 days, or longer, then preventing the disease spreading to nearly everyone would probably be hopeless. What can be achieved is stretching the period of time, during which people fall ill, as much out as possible.


If widespread testing were done, wouldn’t spread be limited? Virus Positive patients would be quarantined much earlier in the incubation period, limiting their exposure to new people. This is the reason health authorities have been gathering patient history, so that those that are exposed can be quarantined and stop infecting others.
Originally Posted by dogperson
Originally Posted by QuasiUnaFantasia
Originally Posted by KevinM
I thought the point of slowing the spread wasn't necessarily to minimise the number of people who get infected but to keep the caseload within bounds that the healthcare system can manage. From what I understand Northern Italy failed to do this, and as a result the number of deaths has spiked because people who would have responded to treatment haven't been getting it.


I believe that is true. If the incubation period is indeed 10 days, or longer, then preventing the disease spreading to nearly everyone would probably be hopeless. What can be achieved is stretching the period of time, during which people fall ill, as much out as possible.


If widespread testing were done, wouldn’t spread be limited? Virus Positive patients would be quarantined much earlier in the incubation period, limiting their exposure to new people. This is the reason health authorities have been gathering patient history, so that those that are exposed can be quarantined and stop infecting others.


I'm no pandemic specialist, so take anything I say with a large dose of salt.

I think it has been accepted for a couple of weeks now that COVID is out and cannot be contained. That from now on we will have a flue and COVID season each year. So one way or another pretty much all of us will get it unless a COVID jab is developed fairly quickly.

There is also a chance COVID will mutate into a less aggressive version with time.
Originally Posted by dogperson
Originally Posted by QuasiUnaFantasia
Originally Posted by KevinM
I thought the point of slowing the spread wasn't necessarily to minimise the number of people who get infected but to keep the caseload within bounds that the healthcare system can manage. From what I understand Northern Italy failed to do this, and as a result the number of deaths has spiked because people who would have responded to treatment haven't been getting it.


I believe that is true. If the incubation period is indeed 10 days, or longer, then preventing the disease spreading to nearly everyone would probably be hopeless. What can be achieved is stretching the period of time, during which people fall ill, as much out as possible.


If widespread testing were done, wouldn’t spread be limited? Virus Positive patients would be quarantined much earlier in the incubation period, limiting their exposure to new people. This is the reason health authorities have been gathering patient history, so that those that are exposed can be quarantined and stop infecting others.


The problem is that any signs of the disease may have been caused by infection 10 days earlier. 10 days is a small eternity in virus terms. How many people can an infected person infect over 10 days? Let's be very conservative and say 3, and that infected people always pass it on to three others within the first 10 days of their incubation period. Then after 30 days there will be 27 patients, after 60 days there will be 729, and after 90 days there will be 19683 patients. All beginning from the first one.

Now, at present we have hundreds of thousands infected. Imagine the scenario in three months time ...

Quarantining of course is likely to help, but people are not being quarantined on day 1. They may be quarantined on day 5, 15, or never.
Originally Posted by QuasiUnaFantasia
Originally Posted by dogperson
Originally Posted by QuasiUnaFantasia
Originally Posted by KevinM
I thought the point of slowing the spread wasn't necessarily to minimise the number of people who get infected but to keep the caseload within bounds that the healthcare system can manage. From what I understand Northern Italy failed to do this, and as a result the number of deaths has spiked because people who would have responded to treatment haven't been getting it.


I believe that is true. If the incubation period is indeed 10 days, or longer, then preventing the disease spreading to nearly everyone would probably be hopeless. What can be achieved is stretching the period of time, during which people fall ill, as much out as possible.


If widespread testing were done, wouldn’t spread be limited? Virus Positive patients would be quarantined much earlier in the incubation period, limiting their exposure to new people. This is the reason health authorities have been gathering patient history, so that those that are exposed can be quarantined and stop infecting others.


The problem is that any signs of the disease may have been caused by infection 10 days earlier. 10 days is a small eternity in virus terms. How many people can an infected person infect over 10 days? Let's be very conservative and say 3, and that infected people always pass it on to three others within the first 10 days of their incubation period. Then after 30 days there will be 27 patients, after 60 days there will be 729, and after 90 days there will be 19683 patients. All beginning from the first one.

Now, at present we have hundreds of thousands infected. Imagine the scenario in three months time ...

Quarantining of course is likely to help, but people are not being quarantined on day 1. They may be quarantined on day 5, 15, or never.


Yes, but that is why ad hoc testing for asymptomatic patients is being done, so that positive patients can be identified as early as possible. China instituted drive- through testing, so that anyone could get a test. In addition, Identification at Day five certainly beats a lot out of identification at day 10, or 15

A symptomatic patient states he went over to the neighbor’s house yesterday. The neighbor is now tested in quarantine before he can impact a large number of people
My understanding is that the aim of containing the pockets at this stage is to stop the exponential growth in the number of cases. Until people have immunity, you can't really make it go away, but you can attempt to buy time, which may or may not work.

Even if there is no vaccine on the horizon, there are apparently antivirals that look promising for treating people who are ill. Of course that requires health care systems remaining functional.
Well, it looks like my frantic last-minute practising (to get my pieces to concert standard whistle) for my next monthly recital on Thursday has all been for nought, following the news conference yesterday with Boris. I got an email today informing me that every public gathering at the lecture theatre where I perform has been cancelled for the next two months. It's very likely that restrictions on public gatherings here in the UK will come into force within the next week or so (including possible school and university closures - just three weeks before the Easter hols), and the meetings and conferences I had booked to attend in the next few weeks have almost all been cancelled. The remaining ones which haven't yet been called off will almost certainly be, when Boris appears with his soulmates on TV again........ cry. And all the concerts around the country will also be affected.

So, I'm going to take a break from proper practising today, and just have a hash-up: no, nothing hallucinogenic - my term for playing and mixing anything that comes to mind: everything from an improv on Scarbo + K467 to my unique version of Blowin' in the Wind (which the Nobel Prize winner himself certainly won't recognize, let alone approve wink ).
There may be a light at the end of the tunnel - Farr's Law of Epidemics.

This law, first established in 1840, states that epidemics tend to rise and fall in a roughly symmetrical pattern that can be approximated by a normal bell-shaped curve. It accurately predicted the rise and fall of various epidemics including AIDS, SARS and Ebola

This may be good news for coronavirus concerns, as it may already be happening in China. Cases there peaked and began ­declining more than a month ago. Fewer than 200 new cases are reported daily, down from a peak of 4,000.
Originally Posted by QuasiUnaFantasia
Originally Posted by KevinM
I thought the point of slowing the spread wasn't necessarily to minimise the number of people who get infected but to keep the caseload within bounds that the healthcare system can manage. From what I understand Northern Italy failed to do this, and as a result the number of deaths has spiked because people who would have responded to treatment haven't been getting it.


I believe that is true. If the incubation period is indeed 10 days, or longer, then preventing the disease spreading to nearly everyone would probably be hopeless. What can be achieved is stretching the period of time, during which people fall ill, as much out as possible.

If the basic reproduction number of the infections can be brought below 1, then the number of infections would start to fall exponentially.

Just, as far as I can see, few countries are willing to take the necessary containment steps (such as mass testing and quarantining of infected people), outside of South Korea and China.

The warmer weather will probably lower the basic reproduction number of the infections as well, but that's not going to be soon helpful for my cold Northern country.
Originally Posted by JJHLH
There may be a light at the end of the tunnel - Farr's Law of Epidemics.

This law, first established in 1840, states that epidemics tend to rise and fall in a roughly symmetrical pattern that can be approximated by a normal bell-shaped curve. It accurately predicted the rise and fall of various epidemics including AIDS, SARS and Ebola

This may be good news for coronavirus concerns, as it may already be happening in China. Cases there peaked and began ­declining more than a month ago. Fewer than 200 new cases are reported daily, down from a peak of 4,000.

Yes, but China is taking extreme steps (shutting down whole regions of the country), that probably won't be applicable in our liberal Western countries.

The warm weather with the arrival of Spring/Summer though, should at least help to reduce the basic reproduction number of infections.
A graph showing new coronavirus cases in China. This is very good news and an excellent illustration of Farr’s law.

Other countries can expect to follow a similar pattern.

[Linked Image]
Originally Posted by 3am_stargazing

Yes, but China is taking extreme steps (shutting down whole regions of the country), that probably won't be applicable in our liberal Western countries.

The warm weather with the arrival of Spring/Summer though, should at least help to reduce the basic reproduction number of infections.


That is true, but the better overall medical care and lower population densities in western countries should help to offset that, along with practicing social distancing for the sick and elderly, and the warming weather you mentioned which begins this month in the Northern Hemisphere.

The takeaway is that the Coronavirus is going to reach its peak and start declining sooner than we think.
Went to a local library to practice piano today. It has a nice Pramberger upright that is in tune. People can borrow the piano for up to 2h/day. The library happens to be in a low-income area so there are homeless people walking in and out. Some of them haven't taken a bath for a few weeks.

The room with the piano is in a remote corner so it is far from the smell in the general seating area. The buzzing noise from the furnace next door is a bigger concern than people using the piano. Homeless people with just a bus pass across town wouldn't travel out of the country. They are unlikely to practice piano. And many people who use the piano are usually well-off to have taken music lessons. Wouldn't know any of the people who used the piano came back from a high risk country like China, Korea, Iran or Italy recently. The chance of contacting the virus through touching the piano keys is very low. Didn't practice music with a mask on or spray sanitizer on the keys. The least anybody can do is to wear single use surgical gloves. When you're done with your practice, the glove goes into the trash.
Originally Posted by thepianoplayer416
Went to a local library to practice piano today. It has a nice Pramberger upright that is in tune. People can borrow the piano for up to 2h/day. The library happens to be in a low-income area so there are homeless people walking in and out. Some of them haven't taken a bath for a few weeks.

The room with the piano is in a remote corner so it is far from the smell in the general seating area. The buzzing noise from the furnace next door is a bigger concern than people using the piano. Homeless people with just a bus pass across town wouldn't travel out of the country. They are unlikely to practice piano. And many people who use the piano are usually well-off to have taken music lessons. Wouldn't know any of the people who used the piano came back from a high risk country like China, Korea, Iran or Italy recently. The chance of contacting the virus through touching the piano keys is very low. Didn't practice music with a mask on or spray sanitizer on the keys. The least anybody can do is to wear single use surgical gloves. When you're done with your practice, the glove goes into the trash.


Where do you get the idea that the chance of getting the virus by playing a piano is low? It is not limited to only those who have traveled or not ‘well off’, it can live on surfaces for up to nine days and is highly contagious. For your own health, don’t dismiss this virus so quickly. It is not like the flu.
Originally Posted by JJHLH
A graph showing new coronavirus cases in China. This is very good news and an excellent illustration of Farr’s law.

Other countries can expect to follow a similar pattern.

[Linked Image]

This didn't happen spontaneously, but because China enforced a massive quarantine.

Wuhan was like this:

Originally Posted by bennevis
Well, it looks like my frantic last-minute practising (to get my pieces to concert standard whistle) for my next monthly recital on Thursday has all been for nought, following the news conference yesterday with Boris. I got an email today informing me that every public gathering at the lecture theatre where I perform has been cancelled for the next two months. It's very likely that restrictions on public gatherings here in the UK will come into force within the next week or so (including possible school and university closures - just three weeks before the Easter hols), and the meetings and conferences I had booked to attend in the next few weeks have almost all been cancelled. The remaining ones which haven't yet been called off will almost certainly be, when Boris appears with his soulmates on TV again........ cry. And all the concerts around the country will also be affected.

So, I'm going to take a break from proper practising today, and just have a hash-up: no, nothing hallucinogenic - my term for playing and mixing anything that comes to mind: everything from an improv on Scarbo + K467 to my unique version of Blowin' in the Wind (which the Nobel Prize winner himself certainly won't recognize, let alone approve wink ).

Bennevis, so you're also in the UK like me.

I have to say, I'm pretty worried about the situation here. And the fact our government doesn't seem to be taking this seriously enough (e.g. there are still flights from Italy and Iran landing here, and the passengers aren't even screened on entry).
Originally Posted by JJHLH
Originally Posted by 3am_stargazing

Yes, but China is taking extreme steps (shutting down whole regions of the country), that probably won't be applicable in our liberal Western countries.

The warm weather with the arrival of Spring/Summer though, should at least help to reduce the basic reproduction number of infections.


That is true, but the better overall medical care and lower population densities in western countries should help to offset that, along with practicing social distancing for the sick and elderly, and the warming weather you mentioned which begins this month in the Northern Hemisphere.

The takeaway is that the Coronavirus is going to reach its peak and start declining sooner than we think.



I worry that the NHS could get overwhelmed very easily though, long before the weather warms enough to slow the infections.

Italy's healthcare system (which has a lot more medical personnel per capita than our one) has been overwhelmed in the North.

See this Twitter thread:
https://twitter.com/silviast9/status/1236933818654896129

Also
Originally Posted by 3am_stargazing
Originally Posted by JJHLH
A graph showing new coronavirus cases in China. This is very good news and an excellent illustration of Farr’s law.

Other countries can expect to follow a similar pattern.

[Linked Image]

This didn't happen spontaneously, but because China enforced a massive quarantine.

Wuhan was like this:



The quarantine in Wuhan helped by delaying the spread of Coronavirus in China by 3-5 days, and the rest of the world by a few weeks. But that alone doesn’t explain why the number of cases has declined so precipitously in China, particularly since the disease has now spread to most parts of the country.

China announced another decline in the number of new cases yesterday, with just 24.

At the same time Merkel of Germany is warning that up to 70% of her country could end up infected. Farr’s Law would indicate that’s she’s likely to be wrong.

Before we all get too depressed by a new virus we can neither prevent nor treat, let's remember that Earth will go on spinning for a while yet (on its own axis as well as around the Sun), and gather together (one metre apart, of course: don't forget - everyone else is harbouring Covid-19 until proven otherwise, so maintain social distancing) and sing this song:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ep9Vzb6R_58 thumb
I took a walk today - because the weather is wonderful, perfect early spring, and I just needed a little sun and fresh air - and to be honest it's heaven out there. We're experiencing how life would be with a much lower population density, and the few people that there are mind their own business and keep far away from each other! It's a paradise for introverts and misanthropists LOL! But of course it's also creepy.

All in all, even if this will be disastrous for our economy, which was not great to begin with, it may serve as a wake-up call. Cutting public healthcare? Not a good idea! Lombardia and Veneto may have the best-functioning systems in Italy, but in the last years we have suffered too as public funds were diverted in favor of private clinics. I'm just afraid that all this will be forgotten very soon once it is over.
Originally Posted by JJHLH

At the same time Merkel of Germany is warning that up to 70% of her country could end up infected. Farr’s Law would indicate that’s she’s likely to be wrong.


So either Merkel has an ulterior motive for saying it, or she's downright stupid / obtuse. I wonder which one it is?
Originally Posted by BruceD
Even some of us who live in areas not yet touched by the virus - it's only a matter of time, they say, and as a major cruise ship destination it may be sooner rather than later here - may be thinking of adjusting our contacts with society.

There is a severe backlash.

I have a ward who a few years ago I helped get a job as cruise crew with a major cruise company. She met and became engaged to another crew member. Now her fiance is on a cruise ship which was to put in at port in Abu Dhabi yesterday, only they were turned away, although they have no known cases onboard. The only open port to cruise ships left in the area is Oman. So they are making a dash (as much as a cruise ship can) for Oman to see if the authorities will allow disembarkation. He is supposed to fly home but can't disembark. They don't know what they will do if Oman will decide to refuse them. They will have to refuel at sea and will continue hunting for a port that will accept them. Their home port, Dubai is closed to them since UAE was one of the first to shut down.

She says this is happening to many of the ships of their company. Cruise ships are seen as a vector and now are being refused docking and disembarkation rights.
Since we are recounting anecdotes relating to the COVID-19 virus:

The cruise ship season in Victoria, B.C. starts on April 3, with approximately 300 ships expected here between April and October. The very first of those ships is the Grand Princess, that ship that was held off the coast of San Francisco for several days last week, carrying multiple people who tested positive for COVID-19, and only finally allowed to dock in Oakland to allow Canadian passengers to disembark. Those passengers who have tested positive have been flown to an army base in Ontario for a 14-day quarantine period. One of the questions now asked is how "safe" is the ship and how well will it be - or can it be - disinfected before it continues on its cruises? The cruise lines seem to be minimizing risk and danger, understandably.

Our provincial public health officer is quoted as saying: "It is my belief that we should be delaying our cruise season until we are in a safer place internationally. [...] I have grave concerns about cruises right now." The federal government is also weighing in about whether to curtail cruise-ship arrivals in Canada.

Weighing serious potentially wide-spread health risks against severe economic impact is a hard balancing act as we are already seeing elsewhere in the world.

Regards,
Originally Posted by Zaphod
Originally Posted by JJHLH

At the same time Merkel of Germany is warning that up to 70% of her country could end up infected. Farr’s Law would indicate that’s she’s likely to be wrong.


So either Merkel has an ulterior motive for saying it, or she's downright stupid / obtuse. I wonder which one it is?


I don’t know what her reason is, but it certainly seems like it does nothing but help foster unnecessary hysteria. I would think the leader of a major country would act more responsibly.

Why wouldn’t she look at the dramatic decline in new cases in China instead and say good news is on the horizon? How is she even arriving at her 70% figure?
https://apnews.com/aa6d49b5f8df715cf0cd5cbd36220d22

Rome’s mega-exhibit celebrates 500 years from Raphael death
The exhibition ends on June 2.
Originally Posted by JJHLH
Originally Posted by Zaphod
[quote=JJHLH]
At the same time Merkel of Germany is warning that up to 70% of her country could end up infected. Farr’s Law would indicate that’s she’s likely to be wrong.

So either Merkel has an ulterior motive for saying it, or she's downright stupid / obtuse. I wonder which one it is?

Or maybe Merkel is looking at more comprehensive information. Or maybe China has its own motives for the data it is reporting ("nothing to see here!"). There are lots of potential reasons for Merkel's statement besides the negative ones suggested.

What makes Farr's Law a "Law"? Does the coronavirus know that's the Law?! Note 3 peaks in the graph of the 1918 influenza pandemic.

My community has had multiple coronavirus deaths. My county and two adjacent counties have just canceled all public gatherings over 250 people. If that's what one might call panic, well, not going to a baseball game or a concert is not going to kill me. Coronavirus probably won't either, but I don't want to be a vector to someone's elderly friend or fragile family member.

My natural inclination to be a hermit suits at this time: I will be staying home more, which gives me more time to practice. Please stay healthy, everyone!
Originally Posted by JJHLH
Originally Posted by Zaphod
Originally Posted by JJHLH

At the same time Merkel of Germany is warning that up to 70% of her country could end up infected. Farr’s Law would indicate that’s she’s likely to be wrong.


So either Merkel has an ulterior motive for saying it, or she's downright stupid / obtuse. I wonder which one it is?


I don’t know what her reason is, but it certainly seems like it does nothing but help foster unnecessary hysteria. I would think the leader of a major country would act more responsibly.

Why wouldn’t she look at the dramatic decline in new cases in China instead and say good news is on the horizon? How is she even arriving at her 70% figure?


From what I read on Der Spiegel, it was Dr Wieler who said ""60 bis 70 Prozent der Menschen wird das Virus infizieren". And he was talking about what would eventually happen over time if nothing is done.

Also Farr's law doesn't say how big the bell is, so it's no consolation. With a giant bell curve you are looking at the virus disappearing because everyone is dead.
Making associations between different countries and extrapolating one country's experience to another's is not feasible. People in different countries behave differently, and governments are different.

Can Germany - or any other country - build a hospital from scratch in one week, like China did? Can any Western country institute the kind of lockdown that China did to huge swathes of its population? (Compare Italy's current lockdown with China's).

Why did Italy suffer so badly so quickly even though it was the only European country to block flights from China - and quite early on? I saw interviews with several Italians on TV in which they said that many of their fellow citizens openly disobeyed the directives from their government, about self-isolating and restricting movements etc.
Originally Posted by Qwerty53
Or maybe Merkel is looking at more comprehensive information.


What information is that?

And if her information is severe enough for her to suggest that 60-70% of her country is likely to be infected, doesn’t she have an obligation to share that data with the rest of the world?

Here is her quote:

“When the virus is out there, the population has no immunity and no therapy exists, then 60 to 70% of the population will be infected," Merkel told a news conference in Berlin on Wednesday, according to Reuters.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/11/angela-merkel-most-people-will-get-the-coronavirus.html
The number of 60% comes from this idea:

- one infected person infects on average another 2.5 persons
- if immunities exist, this number of infected persons decreases accordingly (e.g. if 50% are immune then only 1.25 persons get infected, or 2.5*(1-p) is the number of people getting infected if p is the percentage of immunities in the population)
- a further spreading of the disease comes to an end eventually if the infection rate goes below 1.0
- for an infection rate of 2.5 without immunities to go below 1.0 with immunities you need an immunity percentage of p=0.6

Not sure where this number of 2.5 people getting infected by a single infected person comes from or in how far this really is accurate.
Originally Posted by Gretel
The number of 60% comes from this idea:

- one infected person infects on average another 2.5 persons
- if immunities exist, this number of infected persons decreases accordingly (e.g. if 50% are immune then only 1.25 persons get infected, or 2.5*(1-p) is the number of people getting infected if p is the percentage of immunities in the population)
- a further spreading of the disease comes to an end eventually if the infection rate goes below 1.0
- for an infection rate of 2.5 without immunities to go below 1.0 with immunities you need an immunity percentage of p=0.6

Not sure where this number of 2.5 people getting infected by a single infected person comes from or in how far this really is accurate.


But how does that square with the data coming out of China showing a rapidly declining incidence of new cases?

Some in Wuhan are actually being told to go back to work as the cases subside there. President Xi Jinping visited the region for the first time since the outbreak began. Another good sign.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...-on-infections-from-abroad-idUSKBN20Y03W
I guess the strict quarantine in China helped to reduce this number of 2.5 to something a lot lower.
China has taken extraordinary, early steps: isolate, quarantine and mass testing. Germany, UK and US are not doing nearly as much to limit the spread. We’ll need to see what the final numbers and peak date are after it is over. Merkel may be very wrong—- but I’m sure this was a number provided to her by the medical/scientific community.

I have seen estimates today of the peak around mid April. But of course, if you don’t test, you don’t count the low/ no symptom patients in the country totals.
Originally Posted by JJHLH


But how does that square with the data coming out of China showing a rapidly declining incidence of new cases?


Do you seriously believe that Westerners would tolerate the kind of complete lockdown that the Chinese government is able to impose on its population - including those who are completely healthy?

One infected person with no symptoms can infect several hundred in one day. The incubation period of Covid-19 is up to 2 weeks, during which there may be no symptoms. The virus is already out there in the community in all Western countries. Asymptomatic people who are already infected - and infectious - are going about their daily lives.

Go figure.........
Without more context for Merkel’s quote within which she has not provided a timescale that seems not unreasonable to me.

We are likely to have flue season and corona virus season now where each year the virus returns and unless we develop a corona virus jab the yearly return of the corona virus will just slowly decline as the population as a whole develops immunity from having had the virus.
Just saw that Tom Hanks and his wife tested positive for Coronavirus in Australia.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/ente...sitive-coronavirus-australia/5027878002/

And the NBA season has been suspended indefinitely.

https://www.latimes.com/sports/stor...n-indefinitely-over-coronavirus-pandemic

This whole thing makes me appreciate the solitary solace provided by the piano.
If anyone was ever interested in pursuing the hermit lifestyle, now would be a great time to start (with your piano of course).
Originally Posted by JJHLH
Originally Posted by Gretel
The number of 60% comes from this idea:

- one infected person infects on average another 2.5 persons
- if immunities exist, this number of infected persons decreases accordingly (e.g. if 50% are immune then only 1.25 persons get infected, or 2.5*(1-p) is the number of people getting infected if p is the percentage of immunities in the population)
- a further spreading of the disease comes to an end eventually if the infection rate goes below 1.0
- for an infection rate of 2.5 without immunities to go below 1.0 with immunities you need an immunity percentage of p=0.6

Not sure where this number of 2.5 people getting infected by a single infected person comes from or in how far this really is accurate.


But how does that square with the data coming out of China showing a rapidly declining incidence of new cases?

Some in Wuhan are actually being told to go back to work as the cases subside there. President Xi Jinping visited the region for the first time since the outbreak began. Another good sign.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...-on-infections-from-abroad-idUSKBN20Y03W

This "Farr's Law" mantra is irrelevant and useless today, and just describes a fact we all know: highly infectious diseases should follow patterns of exponential growth and decline in a population. (Perhaps in the 19th century, that was considered a new insight, although I doubt it, as it is obvious to everyone who is not innumerate).

Of course, because this is the nature of infection - the rate of new infection depends on the number of infections in the previous generation of infections. So it will be exponential. That exponential shape doesn't tell us anything about how many people will be infected.

China brought the number of cases down, because they rapidly went into total lockdown, even in cities like Beijing which were relatively unaffected by the virus. If Chinese policies can bring R0 below 1, then the number of infections will decline exponentially.

Here is how they reacted last month in Beijing.


Originally Posted by Zaphod
Originally Posted by JJHLH

At the same time Merkel of Germany is warning that up to 70% of her country could end up infected. Farr’s Law would indicate that’s she’s likely to be wrong.


So either Merkel has an ulterior motive for saying it, or she's downright stupid / obtuse. I wonder which one it is?

Neither. Her comment will be based on what she was told by her scientific advisers, who will be basing it on the best evidence available to them (although it sounds a bit fatalistic).

As for this "Farr’s Law would indicate" - it doesn't indicate anything except that infectious diseases grow and decline exponentially (due to the fact the number of people infected in each generation of infections is dependent on the number who were infected in the previous generation of infections).
Originally Posted by 3am_stargazing

This "Farr's Law" mantra is irrelevant and useless today, and just describes a fact we all know: highly infectious diseases should follow patterns of exponential growth and decline in a population. (Perhaps in the 19th century, that was considered a new insight, although I doubt it, as it is obvious to everyone who is not innumerate).

Of course, because this is the nature of infection - the rate of new infection depends on the number of infections in the previous generation of infections. So it will be exponential. That exponential shape doesn't tell us anything about how many people will be infected.

China brought the number of cases down, because they rapidly went into total lockdown, even in cities like Beijing which were relatively unaffected by the virus. If Chinese policies can bring R0 below 1, then the number of infections will decline exponentially.

Here is how they reacted last month in Beijing.




I guess we will have to disagree regarding Farr’s Law.

Looking at a graph of total coronavirus cases I would expect the curve for cases outside China to follow a similar course to the one involving China itself and begin to level off in the coming weeks.

New cases in South Korea appear to be trending lower.

Or maybe Angela Merkel is correct with her prediction that 60-70% of her country’s population will become infected.

Only time will tell.

[Linked Image]

Originally Posted by JJHLH
I guess we will have to disagree regarding Farr’s Law.

Looking at a graph of total coronavirus cases I would expect the curve for cases outside China to follow a similar course to the one involving China itself and begin to level off in the coming weeks.

New cases in South Korea appear to be trending lower.

Or maybe Angela Merkel is correct with her prediction that 60-70% of her country’s population will become infected.

Only time will tell.

Angela Merkel's prediction of 60-70% infection rate is predicated on her knowledge (and/or, that of her scientific advisors) of the reality of her country's inabiility, and that of other European's nations inabilities, to respond aggressively to this pandemic as has been done in China and South Korea, and the difficulty it will be to contain this health threat in a society this is more free and open than in China and South Korea. It is essentially a defeatist projection.

I think what we see today in Europe is what we might have seen in 2003 with SARS if China had been less aggressive then with that particular coronavirus, SARS-CoV, and it had escaped to Europe in greater numbers than it had then.

As you say, time will tell if she is right to be pessimistic, but the example of how the Italian authorities have, so far, met the challenge of this pandemic is not inspiring, in this regard. It was observed last night in POTUS's address that most US cases have been transmitted via Europe, and not China or Korea. I have not see any confirmation of this though and consider it of unclear reliability.
Article: The Present and Future of Coronavirus by Dr. Roey Tzezana.

Originally Posted by Dr. Roey Tzezana
This post describes the potential future of the Coronavirus and what we can expect to happen in the next couple of weeks and months. It was originally published in Israel, where it became instantly viral. I translated it and sent it to one of the largest global media corporations, only to be told that they can’t publish it because of “public sensitivity”. I see no other way to bring this information to the public, except by the new digital media. Please read it carefully and to the end, to see both the reasons for optimism and pessimism...
The BBC broadcast a documentary "Contagion! The BBC4 Pandemic" two years ago on how a new flu virus is transmitted and spread. It's worth watching, if you can access it. BTW, the protagonist in the program, Dr Hannah Fry, is a mathematician who has made interesting TV programs on maths-related subjects, and everything is based on hard science, unlike the movie "Contagion" (2011), which it should not be confused with.

https://www.imdb.com/title/tt8219352/

(OT: any gamblers should watch Hannah Fry's "The Joy of Winning" smirk , and would-be mathematicians will find "Magic Numbers: Hannah Fry's Mysterious World of Maths" very interesting.)
Originally Posted by Gretel
The number of 60% comes from this idea:

- one infected person infects on average another 2.5 persons
- if immunities exist, this number of infected persons decreases accordingly (e.g. if 50% are immune then only 1.25 persons get infected, or 2.5*(1-p) is the number of people getting infected if p is the percentage of immunities in the population)
- a further spreading of the disease comes to an end eventually if the infection rate goes below 1.0
- for an infection rate of 2.5 without immunities to go below 1.0 with immunities you need an immunity percentage of p=0.6

Not sure where this number of 2.5 people getting infected by a single infected person comes from or in how far this really is accurate.


Gretel is quite to the point with his assumptions and explanations.
For those of you which are interested in some modelling and scenarios, this could be an interesting link:

Richard Neher from Basel University/Switzerland
The current estimate for the US is that 70-100 million people will be affected.
These estimates of tens of millions of Americans and Germans becoming infected make absolutely no sense to me.

The number of new cases in China and South Korea continued to decline overnight.

Many have suggested that these countries represent a special case because they were able to “lockdown” their population, something western countries won’t be able to do, and therefore we should be cautious about extrapolating their data to the rest of the world.

But a recently published article in Science studied the effectiveness of lockdowns. This is what they concluded:

“We show that by 23 January 2020, the epidemic had already spread to other cities within Mainland China. The travel quarantine around Wuhan has only modestly delayed the epidemic spread to other areas of Mainland China.... Furthermore, the modeling study shows that additional travel limitations up to 90% of the traffic have a modest effect unless paired with public health interventions and behavioral changes that achieve a considerable reduction in the disease transmissibility.”

https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/03/05/science.aba9757

So despite the lack of effectiveness of lockdowns the number of new cases in China and South Korea continue to decline. That shows that other factors, the public health interventions mentioned by the authors, are likely responsible for the decline.

There is no reason these interventions can’t be applied to other countries with similar results. Yet we still have leaders predicting doomsday scenarios.

At this point there is still a lot we don't know about the Coronavirus. We can't say for sure whether some people with cold or flu-like symptoms have the virus. At least the city I'm in is not in a lockdown situation. Very few people do any panic buying at the local grocers. Masks and hand sanitizers tend to be in short supply. The local conservatory is still open although some people may be avoiding unnecessary trips to use the grand pianos for students. In every room with a piano you see hand sanitizers and wet tissues for wiping the keys. People are getting used to wiping the piano before and after practices to avoid catching & giving germs from & to other people. This is the least we can do.

Last year traveling in Hong Kong a lot of elevators have a plastic cover over the buttons and a sign that says "sanitized every hour". Most people live in an apartment in Hong Kong so elevator buttons are sensitive areas for spreading germs. At this time nobody can say the # cases reached the peak and new infections is on the decline. Still a while before anybody comes out with a vaccine.

Yesterday a friend left town to go to Africa. He is in a part of the continent that have few or no reported cases. Don't think he has any concerns catching germs on the way over. In recent years, Africa is a hot spot for Chinese investments and people looking for opportunities. With many who came from China recently, the risk of infection is high.
Perhaps the most effective way to stop the spread is to test people and isolate those that have the virus. This appears to be what is happening in China and South Korea and likely helps to explain why their new cases are declining.

In China, the virus will continue to spread as soon as the lockdown is removed, unless some kind of treatment is developped in the meantime. The only purpose of this quarantine is to limit the number of infected people at a given time to avoid overwhelming the health system and protect the older people who are more at risk than others. Similarly in Italy, France, Germany, Uk, Us, Canada and plenty other countries the virus will spread massively. Since there are plenty of healthy people who have the virus without even knowing it, they will infect others.

The world economy can not sustain a complete stop of all industrial and commercial activities for very long so eventually the activities will have to restart in a few weeks, whether the disease has been eradicated or not. The good news is that unlike the spanish flue of 1918, the mortality rate is very low (all things relative). There has been many waves of large scale diseases in the past when no medicine was available, so we will survive this one too.
Originally Posted by Sidokar
The good news is that unlike the spanish flue of 1918, the mortality rate is very low (all things relative).

Mortality rate for the 1918 Spanish Flu was 2.7%. In the face of a healthcare system that already has been overwhelmed, the mortality rate of COVID-19 in Italy hit 6.7% today.
Originally Posted by Tyrone Slothrop
Originally Posted by Sidokar
The good news is that unlike the spanish flue of 1918, the mortality rate is very low (all things relative).


Mortality rate for the 1918 Spanish Flu was 2.7%. In the face of a healthcare system that already has been overwhelmed, the mortality rate of COVID-19 in Italy hit 6.7% today.
I just finished reading an article about epidemiology which stated that the mortality rate of COVID-19 is likely highly inflated because 80% of the people sickened by COVID-19 get only a mild cold and may not think of being tested or testing is unavailable.

Keep practicing. The world needs cheering up.
The mortality rate for old people is quite high. Among people of all ages, not so high. It's the old folks that are under siege by this virus... poor grampas and grammas. Advanced medical technology can only do so much, a lot depends on the strength of the patient. The elderly just don't have enough strength to fight.
Following the press conference by Boris with his medical & scientific advisors by his side earlier today (actually, it was yesterday in the UK but today in the US, if you get my drift whistle), in which he told us the blunt truth - that it's out there and cannot be stopped, and likely there are already 10,000 people infected in the UK (though so far, much less than 1,000 cases have been tested positive), and we are now past the 'containment' phase and are now in the "delay" phase (without blaming other countries for our predicament, unlike another well-known politician) in which the priority is to slow down the spread to give the NHS a fighting chance to cope, the British population are now told to self-isolate for a week if we developed a fever or cough. But unlike our European neighbours, schools will remain open, and sports fixtures can gone on, at least for the present. (Personally, I doubt the London Marathon will take place next month.......but I won't be running it this year anyway wink ).

So, my thoughts turn to what I'd do if I developed a cough (regardless of whether it's due to coronavirus or respiratory syncytial virus) and I had to lock myself down (by order of Boris - no ifs and no buts): well, I could just snuggle beneath my duvet and mope and curse my bad luck cry - or I could dust down that old volume of Wagner/Liszt and bang out the Tännhauser Overture to my heart's content. (I've never banged out that overture in its entirety before, but there's always a first time cool.) I could even learn to play it properly. Somehow, it seems an appropriate piece to learn and occupy myself for a week when you're in a personal lockdown, rather than, say, the Isolde Liebestod.......

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W46BKM0mg-g

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x9BO-YzSvLs (not!)
Oh boy, the wife of our prime minister, Justin Trudeau, has tested positive for Covid-19. She just came back from London, UK. There is so much BREAKING NEWS my brain is going to explode.

https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/coron...au-tests-positive-for-covid-19-1.4850159

A lot of people tested positive this week including movie actor Tom Hanks who recently played the role of Fred Rogers who hosted a popular education TV series for children and his wife Rita Wilson in quarantine in Australia.

A number of sporting events in America got postponed or cancelled including Major League Baseball, NBA basketball, PGA golf & NHL hockey. Next comes the Tokyo Olympics. Will it be postponed or cancelled altogether?

The March Break in much of North American may turn out to be a few weeks longer as people are told to take an extra few weeks off. Still at least a year away before anybody comes up with a vaccine.
Originally Posted by Tyrone Slothrop
Originally Posted by Sidokar
The good news is that unlike the spanish flue of 1918, the mortality rate is very low (all things relative).

Mortality rate for the 1918 Spanish Flu was 2.7%. In the face of a healthcare system that already has been overwhelmed, the mortality rate of COVID-19 in Italy hit 6.7% today.


You are comparing 2 different ratios. The 2.7 is in relation of total number estimated death due to the deseases vs total worldwide population. The current death ratio of covid is in relation to number of known infected people tested positive which we know is quite underestimated. So far the number of death in relation to ww population is marginal.

But those are statistics. Even a very small number is still too much.
There was a statistical study done which showed that two thirds of all Corona virus deaths happened to people who were already suffering from three or more diseases at the time of infection. Most of the remaining deaths happened to people who already suffered from two diseases. A small minority of deaths happened to people with zero or one ongoing disease.

From this study it would appear that old folks need not be worried, unless they suffer from quite a few things already (and come into contact with carriers of the virus).

Moreover, I speculate that a lot of influenza cases are being misdiagnosed as Corona virus, because the symptoms are very similar.

In other news, my employer has asked everyone who can work from home to do so. I can work from home, so now I work in close proximity of my digital piano. This will be a challenge. smile
The diagnosis of Coronavirus is not made through symptoms but by counting those with a positive viral test. Since limited testing is available, the incidence rate is probably much higher than what we know, not lower.

What should be of concern is not just the breakdown of deaths but also serious disease, Such as mechanical ventilation and Extended ICU stays. The center for disease control here has issued a warning for anyone of sixty years or older With or without underlying conditions.
Bulgarian government just declared a state of emergency. We still don't know what that means, it has never been used since WWII, I thought it was a constitutional clause reserved for wartime smile The only human rights that remain valid are the right of life and the right of not being tortured. Every other constitutional right may be discarded at the discretion of the state, according to the emergency state rules.
Originally Posted by CyberGene
Bulgarian government just declared a state of emergency. We still don't know what that means, it has never been used since WWII, I thought it was a constitutional clause reserved for wartime smile The only human rights that remain valid are the right of life and the right of not being tortured. Every other constitutional right may be discarded at the discretion of the state, according to the emergency state rules.


The state of emergency will allow the government to cancel meetings, limit crowd sizes and mandatory Quarantine, as they consider appropriate
Having listened to several experts on TV explaining the rationale behind the UK policy of allowing mass gatherings and sporting fixtures that attract huge crowds (including a big horse-racing event in Cheltenham currently still under way) to continue - which is completely out on a limb with the rest of Western Europe, including Eire -, it is evident that what the government is trying to do now is not to stop people catching the virus, but rather to slow down the rate of transmission while trying to protect the vulnerable - by developing 'herd immunity' in the healthy, younger population.

That is, allowing most of the population - eventually - to become infected in a gradual fashion, because we cannot prevent it, but we can try to slow it. 70 - 80% is the figure being thrown around. Merkel was right on target.

"If you suppress something very, very hard, when you release those measures it bounces back and it bounces back at the wrong time. Our aim is to try and reduce the peak, broaden the peak, not suppress it completely.
Because the vast majority of people get a mild illness, our aim is to build up some kind of herd immunity so more people are immune to this disease and we reduce the transmission, at the same time we protect those who are most vulnerable to it.
" - UK Chief Scientific Adviser

So, we are playing a waiting game, waiting for the right time before curtailing mass gatherings and closing schools prior to causing wholesale disruption by a complete lockdown. Life goes on, you can still book for classical concerts for the coming weeks, football has been cancelled for the foreseeable future because some clubs have Covid-19 within their ranks, all school trips abroad have been stopped, >70s are advised not to go on cruises.........

I get the feeling that a LOT of people have gotten/have it already and just don't know it. It's very suspicious that the only people who seem to get it (in my area anyway) are those with pre-existing medical conditions. The other day a teenager from a very rural town, far from anything, was diagnosed. They have no idea how he got it since he hasn't traveled and no one he knows is sick. Oh, and he has pre-existing medical conditions.

My daughter came home from school last week with a cough and a fever. We called the doctor who thought we were crazy for even considering that it could be coronavirus. I followed their advice to watch it and call again if she wasn't getting better in 3 days. She was. Then I followed the advice sent out by her school and sent her back to school when she hadn't had a fever or vomited (she never vomited) for 24 hours. She's still coughing a week later, but says she feels fine. My husband has also been coughing for about a week, but otherwise feels pretty ok. Cold? Flu? Coronavirus? We'll never know.

I do think I'll send a message to our piano teacher and offer to do skype lessons for the next week or so. She's older, and I don't know what kind of health issues she or her husband might have.
Originally Posted by QuasiUnaFantasia

From this study it would appear that old folks need not be worried, unless they suffer from quite a few things already


Oh... you must be young. How many old folks don't suffer from several things? It is, afterall, how people die : the body doesn't work anymore. I don't know anyone over 80 not on some kind of medication.
Originally Posted by wszxbcl
Originally Posted by QuasiUnaFantasia

From this study it would appear that old folks need not be worried, unless they suffer from quite a few things already


Oh... you must be young. How many old folks don't suffer from several things? It is, afterall, how people die : the body doesn't work anymore. I don't know anyone over 80 not on some kind of medication.


Maybe it is a cultural thing. I do know people above that age who are not on medication.

By the way, I'm approaching mid-50's, so not that young.

Another bit of knowledge of less than global importance: an 80 year old man died in Denmark today; he was apparently infected. As far as I know, the cause of death was heart failure (he had a prior heart condition).
Those under 40 are not getting a free pass on COVID-19 either. In fact, just yesterday it was reported that the Italian Patient Zero, a 38-year old many with no major health conditions, only just started breathing on his own after three weeks. I suppose it could have been worse for him.
Originally Posted by Tyrone Slothrop
Those under 40 are not getting a free pass on COVID-19 either. In fact, just yesterday it was reported that the Italian Patient Zero, a 38-year old many with no major health conditions, only just started breathing on his own after three weeks. I suppose it could have been worse for him.


I heard about him...this is what scares me.

Boris Johnson said many families will lose loved ones before their time...

That was really hard to hear. When you talk about statistics and 1% or 2% or even 7 or 8% death rate, it's not so difficult to swallow. They're just numbers. When you say families will lose loved ones, it really hits home.

That's also why I roll my eyes when people start talking about numbers and statistics like it's the be all and end all. Like if the death rate is only 1%, everything's good. It's not. Every lost life was a loved one to someone.
1% of 60% is a lot of people.
I can't help but fear that Johnson, the UK PM is being cavalier. The NHS is close to capacity as it is and the UK doesn't seem to be doing anything like enough to flatten the curve for the health system to cope. As a consequence a large number of people who would survive with the appropriate care, like Italy's patient Zero who needed medical help to breathe will not have that care provided to them.

It is a dangerous game he is playing.
Please bear in mind that many of those who will die as a consequence of Coronoi virus would have died due to other causes anyway within a short amount of time. Those who are already weakened by diseases are more at risk to complications from additional infectious diseases, whether these be Corona, the flu, or any number of other nasty viral or bacterial diseases.

We will only know in hindsight how large a death toll Corona will cause; it may well turn out to be undetectable.
As a male over 50 with cardiovascular disease I have risks https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demographics/

I would very much prefer if I do get the virus, which is likely based on our prime ministers approach that the health system at the same time is not overwhelmed as Italy's has been. The overloaded Italian health system has meant a large number of deaths that would have been avoided if it had been operating within capacity. The UK health system has far less spare capacity than the Italian system did prior to the start of the infection entering Italy.

Though I've made this personal, by highlighting my own personal risks, what I hope is to do is highlight the very real additional risk that the UK and US approach results in compared to say countries like South Korea and Singapore.
Hi Kevin
Given the exponential increase in cases in the US, and the small number of tests being done, I have decided to self-quarantine myself: vacation cancelled, all groceries delivered and absolutely nothing outside the four walls of my house. I will continue this until this over.

Take care of yourself and assume the government will not be diligent.
Originally Posted by KevinM
I can't help but fear that Johnson, the UK PM is being cavalier. The NHS is close to capacity as it is and the UK doesn't seem to be doing anything like enough to flatten the curve for the health system to cope. As a consequence a large number of people who would survive with the appropriate care, like Italy's patient Zero who needed medical help to breathe will not have that care provided to them.

It is a dangerous game he is playing.

I can't help but think of the phrase, "keeping a stiff upper lip."

He's decided to seek "herd immunity" to COVID-19 by having 60% of UK citizens come down with it. How is it to be part of the herd?
Originally Posted by WeakLeftHand
Originally Posted by Tyrone Slothrop
Those under 40 are not getting a free pass on COVID-19 either. In fact, just yesterday it was reported that the Italian Patient Zero, a 38-year old many with no major health conditions, only just started breathing on his own after three weeks. I suppose it could have been worse for him.


I heard about him...this is what scares me.

Boris Johnson said many families will lose loved ones before their time...

That was really hard to hear. When you talk about statistics and 1% or 2% or even 7 or 8% death rate, it's not so difficult to swallow. They're just numbers. When you say families will lose loved ones, it really hits home.

That's also why I roll my eyes when people start talking about numbers and statistics like it's the be all and end all. Like if the death rate is only 1%, everything's good. It's not. Every lost life was a loved one to someone.

When the healthcare system becomes overloaded, as in Italy, doctors have to make hard decisions. At least Italian Patient Zero recieved oxygen and a ventilator when he needed it. As a lot of victims of COVID-19 in Italy have discovered, this is not always a given. Typically, the elder patients or those with complication are among the first sacrificed when there are equipment shortages, so the scarce equipment may go to those with a best chance of survival, and the others are left to die. Medical ethics in action.
Originally Posted by johnstaf
1% of 60% is a lot of people.


Furthermore it doesn't mean that for the remaining 99% of the 60% it would be a walk in the park.
Originally Posted by QuasiUnaFantasia
Originally Posted by wszxbcl
Originally Posted by QuasiUnaFantasia

From this study it would appear that old folks need not be worried, unless they suffer from quite a few things already


Oh... you must be young. How many old folks don't suffer from several things? It is, afterall, how people die : the body doesn't work anymore. I don't know anyone over 80 not on some kind of medication.


Maybe it is a cultural thing. I do know people above that age who are not on medication.

By the way, I'm approaching mid-50's, so not that young.

Another bit of knowledge of less than global importance: an 80 year old man died in Denmark today; he was apparently infected. As far as I know, the cause of death was heart failure (he had a prior heart condition).


Yes I'm sure there exist some very healthy (for now) old people. And people in your country may be overall healthier than rest of the world. But still Danes do die and not live forever, right? The main mechanism for dying is disease, organ failure. That's why old people as a group are necessarily less healthy, is all I'm saying.
Originally Posted by WeakLeftHand
Oh boy, the wife of our prime minister, Justin Trudeau, has tested positive for Covid-19. She just came back from London, UK. There is so much BREAKING NEWS my brain is going to explode.

https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/coron...au-tests-positive-for-covid-19-1.4850159


I'm a day late on this. So she was in the UK? They're in Ottawa. I'm in Ottawa. But nowhere near where the politicians hobnob. But we're still being careful. Taking steps like everyone else.

Originally Posted by thepianoplayer416
The March Break in much of North American may turn out to be a few weeks longer as people are told to take an extra few weeks off.


March break extended here, I heard. I don't have kids anymore. Grandchild is 3 though.
Originally Posted by keystring
Originally Posted by WeakLeftHand
Oh boy, the wife of our prime minister, Justin Trudeau, has tested positive for Covid-19. She just came back from London, UK. There is so much BREAKING NEWS my brain is going to explode.

https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/coron...au-tests-positive-for-covid-19-1.4850159


I'm a day late on this. So she was in the UK? They're in Ottawa. I'm in Ottawa. But nowhere near where the politicians hobnob. But we're still being careful. Taking steps like everyone else.

Originally Posted by thepianoplayer416
The March Break in much of North American may turn out to be a few weeks longer as people are told to take an extra few weeks off.


March break extended here, I heard. I don't have kids anymore. Grandchild is 3 though.


Mrs. Trudeau just returned from the UK where she had speaking engagements and shaking lots of people's hands no doubt.

As of today, practically everything has been shut down. My workplace advised to work from home effective immediately. My sister's workplace is CLOSED until further notice. My piano teacher has cancelled in-person lessons and transferred them to Skype. My swim club is cancelled for now. March break camps for kids are cancelled. And yes, schools closed until April 5th. As a city, we're pretty much closed. Many of us are locking ourselves down. Not taking a chance.
Originally Posted by Tyrone Slothrop
Originally Posted by KevinM
I can't help but fear that Johnson, the UK PM is being cavalier. The NHS is close to capacity as it is and the UK doesn't seem to be doing anything like enough to flatten the curve for the health system to cope. As a consequence a large number of people who would survive with the appropriate care, like Italy's patient Zero who needed medical help to breathe will not have that care provided to them.

It is a dangerous game he is playing.

I can't help but think of the phrase, "keeping a stiff upper lip."

He's decided to seek "herd immunity" to COVID-19 by having 60% of UK citizens come down with it. How is it to be part of the herd?

Boris has been guided by "the science" throughout, and his two advisers (The Chief Medical Officer and Chief Scientific Officer) answered most of the questions (and the latter two subsequently went on radio and TV interviews by themselves) put to them by the press when they all appeared together in front of them - three times in the past ten days, if I'm not mistaken, following the COBRA cabinet meetings with them.

I watched all the press conferences, and what they're doing right now makes perfect sense to me. They've accepted that the battle for 'containment' has long been lost (it was probably lost a month ago, in fact, when it became evident that an infected person appeared out of 'nowhere'), there're almost certainly several thousands of people - likely many children - out there scattered throughout the UK who are harbouring the virus without knowing it (on the map, the confirmed infected cases show that), and they are threading a fine line between minimalizing public disruption, protecting the vulnerable (the elderly, the sick, the immunosuppressed), keeping the country afloat and carrying the public with them.

For instance, if schools are closed too early (say, from Monday), parents will have to stop working to look after the children - so what about all the millions of workers in the NHS (and not just nurses, health care assistants and doctors)? Who will staff the hospitals, the care homes etc? OR - grandparents (the elderly, likely with health problems themselves) are roped in to help look after the kids. And kids - especially the teens - will still go out and mix with others, bringing in germs to infect their grandparents. The UK population will not stand for the kind of wholesale lockdown imposed by the Chinese on its citizens for such a long time: we're talking several weeks, if not months........a couple of weeks might just be tolerable, but then what? We saw what happened in Italy - even within a day or two, some people were disregarding the authorities' directives. That's where behavioural science comes in, modelling what is likely to happen within the population of the country.

But as all three admitted in the press conference, we are all in uncharted territory, and no-one knows what is the 'correct' - or best approach for the citizens of each country. (Remember, people in different countries behave very differently: contrast the Italians and the Austrians, for example, even though they are neighbours.)

However, Boris is most certainly not "cavalier" in this pandemic like another politician I could name........
This situation here in SoCal is what I would expect. Was at the grocery store this morning. Complete Chaos. 9am, no parking, no carts, no paper products. But plenty of food I thought, haha. You need food before toilet paper.

Everybody I work with or works in a similar field is working remote as per request from employers. HIMSS and Epic XGM was canceled. Piano events are being cancelled or postponed, Certificate of Merit. Bach Festival. Girlfriend decided on a Skype lesson last night instead.

But it's all good. Since we are all at home, we can just play piano all day.

Happy Practicing
We live near Kirkland, Washington, the epicenter of our state’s outbreak. We did our weekly grocery shopping this morning, careful not to touch our faces. The store wasn’t that crowded and there was plenty of everything we needed. We stocked up on a few things that have a long shelf life or items that can be frozen but there was plenty of food. I keep scratching my head over the fact that the entire toilet paper aisle was empty. It makes sense that they were out of hand sanitizer but toilet paper? Covid -19 is not a stomach virus.

The streets are empty. Restaurants and stores are quiet. We’re both seniors so we are staying close to home except when we need necessities. We are entertaining ourselves with scrabble, walks, streaming, picnics, reading and of course, music.

It’s a little confining but really no so bad as long as we are healthy.

Stay well everyone. This will pass.
Originally Posted by gooddog
I keep scratching my head over the fact that the entire toilet paper aisle was empty. It makes sense that they were out of hand sanitizer but toilet paper? Covid -19 is not a stomach virus.


This seems to be a weird theme; first we heard about it from the UK, people loading up on masses of toilet paper, now apparently in North Western US, and here in Denmark the same thing: toilet paper bought up everywhere (along with fresh yeast and flour). So strange ...

Originally Posted by gooddog

Stay well everyone. This will pass.


Thanks, and I wish the same for all. And it will indeed pass.
I'm starting to wonder that if in addition to a national strategic oil reserve.... We might need a national strategic toilet paper reserve. smile

Meanwhile the good new in South Korea continues:

“South Korea reported more recoveries from the coronavirus than new infections on Friday for the first time since its outbreak emerged in January, as a downward trend in daily cases raised hopes that Asia’s biggest epidemic outside China may be slowing.”

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-southkorea-idUSKBN210051

And the number of new daily cases in China is down to single digits:

“China’s Wuhan city, ground zero of the new coronavirus outbreak, reported five new cases on Friday, the second day in a row the tally has been less than 10, while no locally transmitted infections were reported in the rest of the country.”

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...r-just-five-new-cases-idUSKBN2100BP?il=0
Food (including produce) still available here in DC, but not toilet paper. I did find a secret stash at a "Peapod for Giant" online store and bought 50 rolls for delivery on Wednesday (which is the earliest "same day" delivery they have available! haha)

The next weeks are going to be a mess folks. Stay safe.
Originally Posted by JJHLH
Meanwhile the good new in South Korea continues:

“South Korea reported more recoveries from the coronavirus than new infections on Friday for the first time since its outbreak emerged in January, as a downward trend in daily cases raised hopes that Asia’s biggest epidemic outside China may be slowing.”

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-southkorea-idUSKBN210051

And the number of new daily cases in China is down to single digits:

“China’s Wuhan city, ground zero of the new coronavirus outbreak, reported five new cases on Friday, the second day in a row the tally has been less than 10, while no locally transmitted infections were reported in the rest of the country.”

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...r-just-five-new-cases-idUSKBN2100BP?il=0

This is not going to help us here in the West. If China and Korea manage to get their epidemics under control, they will be locking their doors to keep people from the West from coming back in and re-infecting their own citizens!
Originally Posted by Tyrone Slothrop
Food (including produce) still available here in DC, but not toilet paper. I did find a secret stash at a "Peapod for Giant" online store and bought 50 rolls for delivery on Wednesday (which is the earliest "same day" delivery they have available! haha)

The next weeks are going to be a mess folks. Stay safe.


If it is the kind of mess you can clean up with toilet paper, you'll be in great shape with your 50 rolls!
I can't remember when the boss of a big supermarket chain appeared on TV to tell his customers to stop buying so much stuff from his stores, but that was exactly what happened yesterday. And he said something pertinent - that only those who could afford it were able to stockpile hand sanitizers and toilet paper (and pasta and tinned/frozen food etc), leaving nothing left for those who could only afford to buy what they needed.......(like me - I never spend more money than I have to whistle)

Life has been going on as normal where I live, all shops are open, people are at work etc, except that the motorway (freeway) traffic today was more akin to that of a public holiday than a busy Friday. Bliss for me, having to drive ten miles on it every day to & from work - and my job means I have to keep going to work even if the world is invaded by green aliens - or a certain spiky virus.

But things are changing day by day in the UK: the London Marathon has been postponed for the first time ever (the same goes for the Boston Marathon, I see) and mass gatherings will soon be banned. But schools will remain open, so there will still be a semblance of normality - and I have to continue to run the gauntlet of schools traffic every morning. Can they stay open till the Easter hols? We will see........
Some people have a tendency to stock up on common household items. Besides food (cereal, canned food, crackers, etc.), hand sanitizer, bleach detergent, sanitary tissue & toilet paper are also popular. Depending on the country you are in, if you have to stay home long enough, you need to keep a lot of these items in stock.

Can't really avoid gatherings completely. Some people have to work. Schools are closed so they drop their kids to a daycare facility or a community center and we have small groups of people gathering. A lot of local churches are still holding weekly services but no extracurricular activities.

A lot of shops you can pay by a tapping a bank card. This prevents people from passing coins & paper money around. In public washrooms we already have automatic faucets where water would run when you put your hand under with a hand dryer to make single use paper for hand drying unnecessary. The next thing would be a toilet that spray water onto your behind and then you get warm air to dry the area so that toilet paper won't be needed. Came across the self-cleaning toilet idea in a magazine while travelling in Taiwan a few decades ago.
Originally Posted by bennevis
...schools will remain open...


Today it was announced that students in my district have "been dismissed." Staff are instructed not to say that schools are closed.
Our schools closed too. First it was the university, which will continue remotely for the rest of the semester, and now all the public elementary and high schools. It's a relief for me because I was already planning on pulling my kids out on Monday, and this way my daughter can't blame me that she's missing all of her activities. The performing arts center also closed, so my musical next weekend is canceled, which is a huge bummer.

And, also no toilet paper here. I went to get some dry beans today and couldn't find them anywhere. I have a hard time believing that many people eat beans around here.
Originally Posted by bennevis
I can't remember when the boss of a big supermarket chain appeared on TV to tell his customers to stop buying so much stuff from his stores, but that was exactly what happened yesterday. And he said something pertinent - that only those who could afford it were able to stockpile hand sanitizers and toilet paper (and pasta and tinned/frozen food etc), leaving nothing left for those who could only afford to buy what they needed.......(like me - I never spend more money than I have to whistle)
[...].


That's what sort of stuns me in this crisis. The attitude seems to be: "I'm going to look out for myself and hoard all I can, even though I may not need it all; too bad for the little guy who will just have to fend for himself because he can't afford to hoard; that's his problem, not mine." Yet, in the long run, we're all in this together but that thought doesn't seem to strike home with some.

One of our politicians urged people - as did bennevis' supermarket boss - to stop panic buying and clearing out store shelves, leaving nothing for those in the queue behind.

Sad times!

Regards,
Originally Posted by malkin
Originally Posted by bennevis
...schools will remain open...


Today it was announced that students in my district have "been dismissed." Staff are instructed not to say that schools are closed.

The district I'm in just let the kids out for three weeks. We're going to have a lot of unsupervised juvenile delinquents hanging around. Disneyland is closed.
Here in Hand Sanitizer Central all schools in the state are closed, all public venues are closed, and all social events have been cancelled. If you want social interaction, go for a walk and say hello to the passersby. And yes, TP hoarding is happening here, along with clearing grocery shelves of staples.

Guess there will be plenty of time to practice.
I found half a bottle of sanitiser in the bathroom!

Anyone have a concert grand they'd like to swap for it?
people only stockpiled on regular spaghetti, you can still get linguine, farfalle, tagliatelle and so on, lmao
Just got this from my German ward:

https://mobile.twitter.com/dopsleutel13/status/1238546244173250560

The above video is amusing even if it is in Dutch. Basically, the English voice-over is this guy is taking a selfie video of himself driving a forklift through a warehouse full of TP asking, "what shortage???" and laughing his @ss off. 🤣🤣🤣
Tyrone, I just forwarded it to my Dutch friend who loves to laugh! Thanks.
Originally Posted by Tyrone Slothrop
Just got this from my German ward:

https://mobile.twitter.com/dopsleutel13/status/1238546244173250560

The above video is amusing even if it is in Dutch. Basically, the English voice-over is this guy is taking a selfie video of himself driving a forklift through a warehouse full of TP asking, "what shortage???" and laughing his @ss off. 🤣🤣🤣


My friend was shopping a couple of days ago and the staff found the antics of some of the shoppers hilarious.
Originally Posted by KlinkKlonk
people only stockpiled on regular spaghetti, you can still get linguine, farfalle, tagliatelle and so on, lmao

Not quite, in my neck of the woods.

I just returned from a conference (likely to be the last for the foreseeable future) where the lecture hall was half-empty. Many people cancelled or just didn't turn up, even though it's not even a "large gathering" like Wimbledon. Then I went to my gym - where it was half as busy as it normally is on a Saturday: I had the whole swimming pool to myself - bliss! whistle.

Then I went for a haircut (in case the place gets closed down before my hair reaches my shoulders...) which is next to a big supermarket. I dropped in to have a look - and it was crowded. No "social distancing" going on there. Yep - no TP, no pasta, no rice, no UHT milk, no goat's or almond or soya milk - not even of any sort. But I managed to buy a couple of packets of Japanese udon noodles, which probably have been on the shelf for a few years, because no Asians live around the area. (I was the only customer who wasn't Caucasian.) So, I bought the 'ethnic' stuff (including quinoa, miso paste, Harissa sauce and tofu) that no-one else wants.........which suits me just fine. grin

The world is preparing for WW3......
And now a Public Service Announcement for Pianists Everywhere

I was the fool on the hill.

I had an eye test and a basic hearing test today. So yes a new glasses prescription is required, but then it meant trying on lots of glasses because I'm so vain. I need to go back for a more comprehensive hearing test at a later date as there is some loss.

There was plenty of sanitiser around and everyone was asked if they had travelled anywhere or been in contact with a person known to be infected or suffered any likely symptoms when arriving. But honestly looking back at it, I should just have said, no I'll look at replacing my glasses some other time.
I do the grocery shopping at our house. Today my wife went to town, ostensibly to go to the post office. She came home with 36 rolls of toilet paper, 8 rolls of paper towels, and 4 boxes of tissues. Enough to last the two of us for a very long time. So our household is doing it's part to contribute to shortages...

Sam
I hope no-one is planning to use kitchen paper towels (or even tissues) as substitute TP.

They don't disintegrate in water like TP, which means they could clog up your toilet, which means.........
Originally Posted by KevinM

There was plenty of sanitiser around and everyone was asked if they had travelled anywhere or been in contact with a person known to be infected or suffered any likely symptoms when arriving. But honestly looking back at it, I should just have said, no I'll look at replacing my glasses some other time.


I've lost my glasses. I only got my first pair last year, so I have no spare pair. I'll need to go about getting new ones next week. We certainly know how to pick our moments...
Sorry to say there are people buying supplies from a retail store in bulk and reselling to others online at inflated prices:
BC couple confronted at Costco

Otherwise the local McDonald’s is busy today. The local grocer still has a lot of food on display. Hand sanitizer, cleaning supplies are sold out.
Originally Posted by PianogrlNW
And now a Public Service Announcement for Pianists Everywhere
Love this! A friend in the state capital who is a music teacher just sent me the sheet music. Thanks for sharing the full performance!
Italians sing during Coronavirus isolations— makes me wish my neighbors were in Sienna or I had an Italian opera tenor next door

https://www.classicfm.com/composers/puccini/nessun-dorma-florence/
Weak Left Hand, at least I would not be bored lock up with my piano. Sometimes I take a vacation day just to play.
The piano studio I go to in Virginia is still open, she said she had some cancellations but not many. I plan to attend piano lessons unless she closes. Kids schools are closed for two weeks. Universities extended spring break and then will be online until the end of the semester.
Originally Posted by QuasiUnaFantasia
Originally Posted by gooddog
I keep scratching my head over the fact that the entire toilet paper aisle was empty. It makes sense that they were out of hand sanitizer but toilet paper? Covid -19 is not a stomach virus.


This seems to be a weird theme; first we heard about it from the UK, people loading up on masses of toilet paper, now apparently in North Western US, and here in Denmark the same thing: toilet paper bought up everywhere (along with fresh yeast and flour). So strange ...

Originally Posted by gooddog

Stay well everyone. This will pass.


Thanks, and I wish the same for all. And it will indeed pass.

Because people are planning to self-isolate, which will help to slow the epidemic (and also prevent them from catching the virus).

Buying flour and yeast is really smart, because it means you can bake your own fresh bread at home, and don't need to go outside.
Originally Posted by Sidokar
In China, the virus will continue to spread as soon as the lockdown is removed, unless some kind of treatment is developped in the meantime. The only purpose of this quarantine is to limit the number of infected people at a given time to avoid overwhelming the health system and protect the older people who are more at risk than others. Similarly in Italy, France, Germany, Uk, Us, Canada and plenty other countries the virus will spread massively. Since there are plenty of healthy people who have the virus without even knowing it, they will infect others.

The world economy can not sustain a complete stop of all industrial and commercial activities for very long so eventually the activities will have to restart in a few weeks, whether the disease has been eradicated or not. The good news is that unlike the spanish flue of 1918, the mortality rate is very low (all things relative). There has been many waves of large scale diseases in the past when no medicine was available, so we will survive this one too.

The spread of the virus will slow down in the summer weather (and China can get quite warm in the summer, I believe). It will probably re-emerge in the autumn though.
Originally Posted by QuasiUnaFantasia
There was a statistical study done which showed that two thirds of all Corona virus deaths happened to people who were already suffering from three or more diseases at the time of infection. Most of the remaining deaths happened to people who already suffered from two diseases. A small minority of deaths happened to people with zero or one ongoing disease.

From this study it would appear that old folks need not be worried, unless they suffer from quite a few things already (and come into contact with carriers of the virus).

Moreover, I speculate that a lot of influenza cases are being misdiagnosed as Corona virus, because the symptoms are very similar.

In other news, my employer has asked everyone who can work from home to do so. I can work from home, so now I work in close proximity of my digital piano. This will be a challenge. smile

The case fatality rates increase greatly with age, unfortunately.

So it's very important that old people isolate or follow social distancing.

[Linked Image]
Originally Posted by dogperson
Italians sing during Coronavirus isolations— makes me wish my neighbors were in Sienna or I had an Italian opera tenor next door

https://www.classicfm.com/composers/puccini/nessun-dorma-florence/

That is way cool.
This seems very familiar.The Russian flu epidemic of 1889-1893
I'm a full-time pastor and I also teach at a Christian high school. It's quite possible that our churches and schools will be shutdown for the foreseeable future. We've already canceled a 3-week conference in July that I've participated in for the last 20 years. It usually draws over 10k people.

So life as I know it is on hold right now. However, I'm praising the Lord for the spiritual and physical provisions that are available to me, and I'll continue to try and encourage and serve people the best way I can given the circumstances.

God Bless,
David


University of Alabama have closed for Spring Break, and they've extended that closure to students until March 30th. From April 1st, classes will move to "Alternative Delivery", and exactly what that will mean is not yet certain. For academic classes it will be simple enough to arrange video conferencing and submitting papers online. For piano lessons and other instrumental instruction nobody is quite sure what form that will take yet. It could be that those who are healthy can still meet professors on a one-to-one basis (it's not that all human contact is banned!), or it might be that the university asks us to upload unlisted videos onto YouTube, or submit audio files for appraisal - and while that is not a replacement for a real lesson, it will be enough to firstly meet attendance requirements at the university which is of incredibly high importance for those on F1 and J1 visas (myself included), it will also keep things ticking over, and make sure the students are still practising.

It will be a difficult time for some students, and I really do feel sorry for those who hope to graduate in May since they might find that their graduations have to be cancelled, which honestly really sucks for them after all the work that has gone into getting their degrees, but Alabama are actually very good at looking after their students on a pastoral level and I'm sure when this blows over there will be an alternative ceremony offered, etc. Everyone is trying to work with compassion and understanding, and now the initial stress is giving way to acceptance and a mild grumbling frustration.

Friday was an incredibly stressful day since Department of Homeland security issued advice that our visas may be invalidated by moving to 'online' learning since campus was closed, and then of course that started to pose the logistical problem of where they would actually send students with invalidated visas since there are basically no flights out of the US to Europe or China and those flights that are available are incredibly expensive at this time (IF they go at all). Six hours later - SIX HOURS - DHS issued guidance saying that they were wrong, visas will be fine, and as long as we remain fully enrolled and meet our institutions requirements for attendance in their new form. I think someone lower down the food chain at DHS might have panicked unduly but you can imagine that all the International students turned grey during that time! A lot of students were breaking down in tears not knowing what to do. Anyway it's ALL FINE NOW.

By the way, normal bars of soap for washing hands are effective against this virus. Although it spreads quickly and once you get it, it can be really bad, the virus itself only as strong and communicable as the common cold, so making sure you don't get coughed on or touched by infected people, don't touch your face after you've been out in public until you can wash your hands, if you feel ill stay home - all the things you'd do when you know there's a cold going around. I've had common colds develop into pneumonia before because I have ulcerative colitis, so while I'm not going to say I'm not feeling uneasy about this, I'm fairly used to being careful about hygiene. As yet the virus isn't 'airborne' as in, it won't float around in the air, it will float around in droplets from sneezes and coughs which will fall to the ground fairly quickly and the virus will die fairly quickly outside the body. Still, I don' think it's good to take chances!

Stay safe everyone!
Joe
COV-19 will stay on objects: plastic and wood up to nine days, and more porous materials like cardboard for approx two.

The CDC has published info that it is stronger and more communicable than the common cold and flu.
If we haven't already changed our personal habits, it's time to do so - and as quickly as possible. For our own protection as well as those of others.

I was watching the news on TV just now, which showed people returning to the US from their trips to Europe, escaping just in time before almost all flights are stopped. People were hugging and kissing each other at the airport as they were greeted by loved ones etc. Seriously, there is no faster way to transmit the virus, short of someone coughing into your open mouth. Be very careful, especially with the elderly and the vulnerable.

I also noticed that women (& men) with long hair were repeatedly touching their faces inadvertently - very close to their eyes - when they pushed their hair back with their hands. What have their hands been touching earlier?

Twelve supermarket chains in the UK have got together to plead with the public not to deprive others of essential stuff by buying more (as in twenty times more mad) than we need. I couldn't buy any eggs today, even at the most upmarket supermarket (Waitrose) - half an hour after it opened for business, presumably having been stocked up overnight. As for TP, tissues, pasta and rice - forget it.

Truly, humans - whatever their social status, even their IQ - show their herd mentality during hard times: a few people start hoarding, other people notice and think they must also do the same, otherwise they would feel deprived - of stuff they already have lots of at home. Or maybe they believe they would starve..........

What would their pets think, when they see their owners filling up two whole cupboards with enough toilet rolls or pasta to last for three years? How about their favorite cat or dog food instead? smirk
Originally Posted by David B
I'm a full-time pastor and I also teach at a Christian high school. It's quite possible that our churches and schools will be shutdown for the foreseeable future. We've already canceled a 3-week conference in July that I've participated in for the last 20 years. It usually draws over 10k people.

So life as I know it is on hold right now. However, I'm praising the Lord for the spiritual and physical provisions that are available to me, and I'll continue to try and encourage and serve people the best way I can given the circumstances.

God Bless,
David



I can't advise you, but if I was a pastor or religious leader, I would close the churches as early as possible, until the peak of the epidemic has past. The transmission of the virus seems to be largely airborne, and having lots of people together in the same room could transmit it. In South Korea, the virus was spread rapidly among members of a single church.

You could switch to internet services for the coming weeks, if that's possible?
Originally Posted by bennevis


Twelve supermarket chains in the UK have got together to plead with the public not to deprive others of essential stuff by buying more (as in twenty times more mad) than we need. I couldn't buy any eggs today, even at the most upmarket supermarket (Waitrose) - half an hour after it opened for business, presumably having been stocked up overnight. As for TP, tissues, pasta and rice - forget it.

Truly, humans - whatever their social status, even their IQ - show their herd mentality during hard times: a few people start hoarding, other people notice and think they must also do the same, otherwise they would feel deprived - of stuff they already have lots of at home. Or maybe they believe they would starve..........

What would their pets think, when they see their owners filling up two whole cupboards with enough toilet rolls or pasta to last for three years? How about their favorite cat or dog food instead? smirk

I think it's not a bad idea though. Those people hoarding toilet paper (unless they plan to resell it), are presumably doing it because they are planning to self-isolate themselves?

If every non-essential worker self-isolated themselves for the coming weeks, then the virus epidemic should die out, or at least slow down like it is in Taiwan.
Originally Posted by 3am_stargazing
Originally Posted by bennevis


Twelve supermarket chains in the UK have got together to plead with the public not to deprive others of essential stuff by buying more (as in twenty times more mad) than we need. I couldn't buy any eggs today, even at the most upmarket supermarket (Waitrose) - half an hour after it opened for business, presumably having been stocked up overnight. As for TP, tissues, pasta and rice - forget it.

Truly, humans - whatever their social status, even their IQ - show their herd mentality during hard times: a few people start hoarding, other people notice and think they must also do the same, otherwise they would feel deprived - of stuff they already have lots of at home. Or maybe they believe they would starve..........

What would their pets think, when they see their owners filling up two whole cupboards with enough toilet rolls or pasta to last for three years? How about their favorite cat or dog food instead? smirk

I think it's not a bad idea though. Those people hoarding toilet paper (unless they plan to resell it), are presumably doing it because they are planning to self-isolate themselves?

Actually, no, they have no intention of doing so, unless they had to, by decree from Boris.

The TV reporter asked a few people why they were buying up so much stuff, and they said: "Everyone else is doing it, so we thought we'd better do the same."
Originally Posted by 3am_stargazing
Originally Posted by bennevis


Twelve supermarket chains in the UK have got together to plead with the public not to deprive others of essential stuff by buying more (as in twenty times more mad) than we need. I couldn't buy any eggs today, even at the most upmarket supermarket (Waitrose) - half an hour after it opened for business, presumably having been stocked up overnight. As for TP, tissues, pasta and rice - forget it.

Truly, humans - whatever their social status, even their IQ - show their herd mentality during hard times: a few people start hoarding, other people notice and think they must also do the same, otherwise they would feel deprived - of stuff they already have lots of at home. Or maybe they believe they would starve..........

What would their pets think, when they see their owners filling up two whole cupboards with enough toilet rolls or pasta to last for three years? How about their favorite cat or dog food instead? smirk

I think it's not a bad idea though. Those people hoarding toilet paper (unless they plan to resell it), are presumably doing it because they are planning to self-isolate themselves?

If every non-essential worker self-isolated themselves for the coming weeks, then the virus epidemic should die out, or at least slow down like it is in Taiwan.


I’m not seeing how any self-isolating person needs to stockpile 50+ rolls of toilet paper. Sadly, those living paycheck to paycheck can’t hoard anything because they don’t have the disposable income to buy in bulk. So the hoarding by those that can afford it means others walk into the grocery stores to empty shelves of essential items. Really a sad commentary on society.
Everybody seems to be focused on last minute shopping and stocking up household essentials, not too many talk about the extra time they have for music practice with many businesses closed and shopping areas operating with reduced hours. Definitely going to use the time to prepare for the next PW Forum recital audio.

On the other hand, I've gone to 3 separate stores yesterday. The toilet paper & tissue racks were empty. Canned beans, bags of dry pasta & rice were going fast too. Lucky to be able to get a few bags of paper towel just in case.
Originally Posted by bennevis
The TV reporter asked a few people why they were buying up so much stuff, and they said: "Everyone else is doing it, so we thought we'd better do the same."
A poll of a few people doesn't mean anything,

I think a lot of people are planning to try and stay in their home all the time so they need a lot of everything to do that even if it's only for a month or two. I live in NYC and will probably try to do that as much as possible. When people get too scared to go out that's probably good because it dramatically increases social isolation.
Originally Posted by pianoloverus
Originally Posted by bennevis
The TV reporter asked a few people why they were buying up so much stuff, and they said: "Everyone else is doing it, so we thought we'd better do the same."
A poll of a few people doesn't mean anything,

I think a lot of people are planning to try and stay in their home all the time so they need a lot of everything to do that even if it's only for a month or two. I live in NYC and will probably try to do that as much as possible. When people get too scared to go out that's probably good because it dramatically increases social isolation.


Check out the internet today at the pictures of vast herds crammed together waiting to get into bars and restaurants for St Patrick’s Day. The governor of OK took his family out to a restaurant and defended it. Senator Nunes has encouraged people to eat out.

No, people are only preparing to have supplies, and too many, if the government requires them to isolate.
Originally Posted by pianoloverus
Originally Posted by bennevis
The TV reporter asked a few people why they were buying up so much stuff, and they said: "Everyone else is doing it, so we thought we'd better do the same."
A poll of a few people doesn't mean anything,

I think a lot of people are planning to try and stay in their home all the time so they need a lot of everything to do that even if it's only for a month or two. I live in NYC and will probably try to do that as much as possible. When people get too scared to go out that's probably good because it dramatically increases social isolation.

Actually, these are younger people who are out and about and still going to work and doing outdoor stuff - as well as excessive shopping - etc. A 10K race went on as usual this morning in a nearby village. Life is still going on as normal in the UK, with no restrictions on movements, or even large gatherings (though that's set to change in the following week), and all shops are open normal hours. Those who can't - or don't want to - go out shopping can order online from the supermarkets, who will deliver to their homes.

And the hoarding started a few weeks ago.
The only reason for that is "panic buying" (panicking long before there's any need to smirk ) and herd mentality.

Result: the many older retired people who live alone (some of whom don't use computers) and who have their regular weekly routine of supermarket shopping are unable to buy what they need. And the elderly are the main group who may soon be asked to stay at home for their own protection.......
Originally Posted by bennevis
And the hoarding started a few weeks ago.The only reason for that is "panic buying" (panicking long before there's any need to smirk ) and herd mentality.
Of course, that is just your opinion.
Originally Posted by pianoloverus
Originally Posted by bennevis
And the hoarding started a few weeks ago.The only reason for that is "panic buying" (panicking long before there's any need to smirk ) and herd mentality.
Of course, that is just your opinion.

What is yours, if there is no food or stock shortages (other than that caused by hoarding), and the people who are causing all those problems are young and fit, and have no reason to isolate themselves at present (unless they're sick, in which case they wouldn't be out shopping: they've been ordered to stay home by Boris, in fact)?

In fact, the idea has just been mooted that supermarkets open an hour earlier, just for older people to do their shopping (before the hoards get in and buy up all the stock)......
Originally Posted by bennevis
Originally Posted by pianoloverus
Originally Posted by bennevis
And the hoarding started a few weeks ago.The only reason for that is "panic buying" (panicking long before there's any need to smirk ) and herd mentality.
Of course, that is just your opinion.
What is yours, if there is no food or stock shortages (other than that caused by hoarding), and the people who are causing all those problems are young and fit, and have no reason to isolate themselves at present (unless they're sick, in which case they wouldn't be out shopping: they've been ordered to stay home by Boris, in fact)?
I already gave my opinion.

It is not just that some people are worried about shortages(real or not) but that some want to self isolate in their homes. If people thought there was no danger in going out shopping there would be less mass buying. I don't know why you think all or even many of the people doing the hoarding are young and fit. That's just another opinion. Finally, once it's clear that some people are buying huge amounts of certain items it's reasonable to think that there might be shortages even when suppliers and stores say otherwise.
Originally Posted by pianoloverus
Originally Posted by bennevis
Originally Posted by pianoloverus
Originally Posted by bennevis
And the hoarding started a few weeks ago.The only reason for that is "panic buying" (panicking long before there's any need to smirk ) and herd mentality.
Of course, that is just your opinion.
What is yours, if there is no food or stock shortages (other than that caused by hoarding), and the people who are causing all those problems are young and fit, and have no reason to isolate themselves at present (unless they're sick, in which case they wouldn't be out shopping: they've been ordered to stay home by Boris, in fact)?
I already gave my opinion.

It is not just that some people are worried about shortages(real or not) but that some want to self isolate in their homes. If people thought there was no danger in going out shopping there would be less mass buying. I don't know why you think all or even many of the people doing the hoarding are young and fit.

I'm watching on my TV screen right now the same scenes I saw in person this morning at a local supermarket, only the scene on TV is of a different supermarket 200 miles away.

Young, fit people pushing overloaded trolleys, standing in long queues. I've never seen anything like it. Christmas and sales shopping is nothing in comparison.

And prominent politicians were also on TV asking the public to stop panic buying. The supermarkets all put out a similar statement.
Originally Posted by bennevis
I'm watching on my TV screen right now the same scenes I saw in person this morning at a local supermarket, only the scene on TV is of a different supermarket 200 miles away.

Young, fit people pushing overloaded trolleys, standing in long queues.
Only young and fit? That would be close to impossible to believe. I live a block from a Trader Joe's and the shoppers certainly aren't all young and fit. They're a mixture and I think would be the norm.

Some places in the U.S. are encouraging low risk people to not go out a lot because they can still transmit the disease to vulnerable people even if they don't get very sick from the virus. In fact, an article in the NY Times said that self isolation among less vulnerable people can do more to flatten the curve then self isolation of vulnerable people.
Originally Posted by pianoloverus
Originally Posted by bennevis
I'm watching on my TV screen right now the same scenes I saw in person this morning at a local supermarket, only the scene on TV is of a different supermarket 200 miles away.

Young, fit people pushing overloaded trolleys, standing in long queues.
Only young and fit? That would be close to impossible to believe.

Why do you find it impossible to believe that only young and fit people would stand in a long queue (probably half an hour long) pushing a heavy trolley?

On a normal day, you get all age groups. Any elderly person seeing such a queue would think twice, as I did this morning, when I just wanted to buy a few things.


Quote
Some places in the U.S. are encouraging low risk people to not go out a lot because they can still transmit the disease to vulnerable people even if they don't get very sick from the virus. In fact, an article in the NY Times said that self isolation among less vulnerable people can do more to flatten the curve then self isolation of vulnerable people.

The big flaw is that low risk - and younger - people are much less likely to comply with staying home (if you are young, you want to go out with friends, play ball, get drunk etc). We saw what happened in Italy, and now Ireland.

If the vulnerable people self-isolate, they cannot catch the virus.

They've shown that infectivity is greatest in the first five days of the onset of symptoms. Therefore, the best way to flatten the curve is to order everyone - anyone - with any symptoms of fever and/or cough to self-isolate immediately, for at least a week.
Can you please stop your bickering, Bennevis and Pianoloverus. It’s not what we need right now.
Originally Posted by PianogrlNW
Can you please stop your bickering, Bennevis and Pianoloverus. It’s not what we need right now.

thumb
Originally Posted by bennevis
Originally Posted by pianoloverus
Some places in the U.S. are encouraging low risk people to not go out a lot because they can still transmit the disease to vulnerable people even if they don't get very sick from the virus. In fact, an article in the NY Times said that self isolation among less vulnerable people can do more to flatten the curve then self isolation of vulnerable people.

The big flaw is that low risk - and younger - people are much less likely to comply with staying home (if you are young, you want to go out with friends, play ball, get drunk etc). We saw what happened in Italy, and now Ireland.

If the vulnerable people self-isolate, they cannot catch the virus.

They've shown that infectivity is greatest in the first five days of the onset of symptoms. Therefore, the best way to flatten the curve is to order everyone - anyone - with any symptoms of fever and/or cough to self-isolate immediately, for at least a week.
Not what the NY Times article said. The flaw in your reasoning is probably that the vulnerable people usually don't self isolate or self isolate 100% so that they eventually come in contact with younger people who may not even be aware they have the virus.
Originally Posted by pianoloverus

Not what the NY Times article said. The flaw in your reasoning is probably that the vulnerable people usually don't self isolate or self isolate 100% so that they eventually come in contact with younger people who may not even be aware they have the virus.

If you are vulnerable, you do what it takes to protect yourself.

If you think you're just going to get a mild illness, you don't curtail your social life. Unless you are in a certain kind of society.

That's behavioural science in play - and that has to be tailored for a specific population. That's why using the Chinese or South Korean model doesn't work in Western countries.
Originally Posted by bennevis
Originally Posted by 3am_stargazing
Originally Posted by bennevis


Twelve supermarket chains in the UK have got together to plead with the public not to deprive others of essential stuff by buying more (as in twenty times more mad) than we need. I couldn't buy any eggs today, even at the most upmarket supermarket (Waitrose) - half an hour after it opened for business, presumably having been stocked up overnight. As for TP, tissues, pasta and rice - forget it.

Truly, humans - whatever their social status, even their IQ - show their herd mentality during hard times: a few people start hoarding, other people notice and think they must also do the same, otherwise they would feel deprived - of stuff they already have lots of at home. Or maybe they believe they would starve..........

What would their pets think, when they see their owners filling up two whole cupboards with enough toilet rolls or pasta to last for three years? How about their favorite cat or dog food instead? smirk

I think it's not a bad idea though. Those people hoarding toilet paper (unless they plan to resell it), are presumably doing it because they are planning to self-isolate themselves?

Actually, no, they have no intention of doing so, unless they had to, by decree from Boris.

The TV reporter asked a few people why they were buying up so much stuff, and they said: "Everyone else is doing it, so we thought we'd better do the same."

Most of the people hoarding are planning to self-isolate. I've noticed all the longlife and frozen food is being purchased, while people are leaving perishable items on the shelves.

Stocking up is also the most altruistic thing you can do in this situation, as it will allow people to self-isolate (it's a necessary condition for the social distancing that will slow the spread of the epidemic). https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/observations/preparing-for-coronavirus-to-strike-the-u-s/
Originally Posted by bennevis
Originally Posted by pianoloverus
Originally Posted by bennevis
The TV reporter asked a few people why they were buying up so much stuff, and they said: "Everyone else is doing it, so we thought we'd better do the same."
A poll of a few people doesn't mean anything,

I think a lot of people are planning to try and stay in their home all the time so they need a lot of everything to do that even if it's only for a month or two. I live in NYC and will probably try to do that as much as possible. When people get too scared to go out that's probably good because it dramatically increases social isolation.

Actually, these are younger people who are out and about and still going to work and doing outdoor stuff - as well as excessive shopping - etc. A 10K race went on as usual this morning in a nearby village. Life is still going on as normal in the UK, with no restrictions on movements, or even large gatherings (though that's set to change in the following week), and all shops are open normal hours. Those who can't - or don't want to - go out shopping can order online from the supermarkets, who will deliver to their homes.

And the hoarding started a few weeks ago.
The only reason for that is "panic buying" (panicking long before there's any need to smirk ) and herd mentality.

Result: the many older retired people who live alone (some of whom don't use computers) and who have their regular weekly routine of supermarket shopping are unable to buy what they need. And the elderly are the main group who may soon be asked to stay at home for their own protection.......

The stocking up is rational - without it, it will be impossible to quarantine or self-isolate.

You realize that supermarket home delivery will require weeks of booking in advance. If you want to avoid having a high chance of getting the virus, the only way is to stock up now, while it's not yet prevalent in the general public.

In addition, stocking up ("hoarding") is the most altruistic thing you can possibly do in this situation:

Quote

[T]he only path to flattening the curve for COVID-19 is community-wide isolation: the more people stay home, the fewer people will catch the disease. The fewer people who catch the disease, the better hospitals can help those who do...

Here’s what all this means in practice: get a flu shot, if you haven’t already, and stock up supplies at home so that you can stay home for two or three weeks, going out as little as possible. The flu shot helps decrease the odds of having to go to the hospital for the flu, or worse yet, get both flu and COVID-19; comorbidities drastically worsen outcomes.

Staying home without needing deliveries means that not only are you less likely to get sick, thus freeing up hospitals for more vulnerable populations, it means that you are less likely to infect others (while you may be having a mild case, you can still infect an elderly person or someone with cancer or another significant illness) and you allow delivery personnel to help out others.



https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/observations/preparing-for-coronavirus-to-strike-the-u-s/
Originally Posted by 3am_stargazing

The stocking up is rational - without it, it will be impossible to quarantine or self-isolate.

No, it's irrational.

You only have to self-isolate for one week if you're sick. How many loo rolls or kitchen towels do you use in one week?

(If you're still sick after one week, you'll likely be in hospital.)

Quote
You realize that supermarket home delivery will require weeks of booking in advance.

No, it doesn't.

If I order online now from Sainsbury's or Tesco, it will be delivered today. Unless they run out.


Quote
If you want to avoid having a high chance of getting the virus, the only way is to stock up now, while it's not yet prevalent in the general public.

Eh?

The public has already been told to self-isolate if they have symptoms. So, no-one should be outside coughing out germs.

If you keep at least one metre from everyone else and never touch your face unless your hands have been thoroughly washed, you won't catch it.

This is the joint letter from the supermarkets:
"We would ask everyone to be considerate in the way they shop. We understand your concerns but buying more than is needed can sometimes mean that others will be left without. There is enough for everyone if we all work together."
Originally Posted by bennevis

This is the joint letter from the supermarkets:
"We would ask everyone to be considerate in the way they shop. We understand your concerns but buying more than is needed can sometimes mean that others will be left without. There is enough for everyone if we all work together."

I like this. “Work together.” Nicely stated.
I'm a bit late noticing this silly bit ...
Originally Posted by QuasiUnaFantasia
This virus will surely kill some number of people. Panicking would likely kill ten to a hundred times more.
...
The world may still come to an end, but it will likely be panic causing it. Not a disease.
I've never heard it said that panic can cause widespread death.
Originally Posted by MacMacMac
I'm a bit late noticing this silly bit ...
Originally Posted by QuasiUnaFantasia
This virus will surely kill some number of people. Panicking would likely kill ten to a hundred times more.
...
The world may still come to an end, but it will likely be panic causing it. Not a disease.
I've never heard it said that panic can cause widespread death.


The indications are that this virus is not particularly deadly. Only about 3200 deaths so far.

Panic is the manic activitiy of people not using their reason. That sort of thing can cause damage in ways that no virus could ever hope to aspire to. Panic can for example cause economic recessions, which in turn can remove the life sustenance for masses of people (particularly in already poor countries).
Originally Posted by QuasiUnaFantasia
The indications are that this virus is not particularly deadly. Only about 3200 deaths so far.

As of last night, 6,513 deaths of 169,387 confirmed cases
Originally Posted by QuasiUnaFantasia
Originally Posted by MacMacMac
I'm a bit late noticing this silly bit ...
Originally Posted by QuasiUnaFantasia
This virus will surely kill some number of people. Panicking would likely kill ten to a hundred times more.
...
The world may still come to an end, but it will likely be panic causing it. Not a disease.
I've never heard it said that panic can cause widespread death.


The indications are that this virus is not particularly deadly. Only about 3200 deaths so far.

Panic is the manic activitiy of people not using their reason. That sort of thing can cause damage in ways that no virus could ever hope to aspire to. Panic can for example cause economic recessions, which in turn can remove the life sustenance for masses of people (particularly in already poor countries).


When you blindly focus on statistics, you lose the real picture of what's really going on. Take a look at the actual numbers of deaths, which hasn't even peaked yet worldwide:

https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-compared-to-sars-swine-flu-mers-zika-2020-3

If exponentially more people get infected with Covid-19, even with a relatively low death rate, the actual numbers of deaths can be staggering.
At the moment there is no vaccine in the market. The only way for countries to contain the virus is to shut their borders and getting their citizens abroad to come home.

Holy cow!! A bizarre way to treat the virus, no thanks...
Originally Posted by Tyrone Slothrop
Originally Posted by QuasiUnaFantasia
The indications are that this virus is not particularly deadly. Only about 3200 deaths so far.

As of last night, 6,513 deaths of 169,387 confirmed cases


It's still extremely low. The flu causes about half a million deaths per year - and that one we're somewhat immune towards (as a society), because it is permanent (which Corona will also become).

EDIT: The number of 3200 that I stated was for China only. Sorry about that!
Originally Posted by QuasiUnaFantasia
Originally Posted by Tyrone Slothrop
Originally Posted by QuasiUnaFantasia
The indications are that this virus is not particularly deadly. Only about 3200 deaths so far.

As of last night, 6,513 deaths of 169,387 confirmed cases


It's still extremely low. The flu causes about half a million deaths per year - and that one we're somewhat immune towards (as a society), because it is permanent (which Corona will also become).

EDIT: The number of 3200 that I stated was for China only. Sorry about that!


The estimated infection rate for the US alone is between 70-100 million. Take 1% of that to see the estimated number of deaths if we don’t break the cycle :

700,000 deaths for US alone.
More than 3,700 confirmed cases of the coronavirus have been confirmed across the country Monday and at least 69 people have died, according to Johns Hopkins. (Todays WSJ).
Originally Posted by dogperson
The estimated infection rate for the US alone is between 70-100 million. Take 1% of that to see the estimated number of deaths if we don’t break the cycle :

700,000 deaths for US alone.

Seems like we better work very hard to break the cycle.

I realize its going to get worse before it gets better, but let's pray that it never gets to the "estimated" level you describe.
Originally Posted by bennevis
Originally Posted by 3am_stargazing

The stocking up is rational - without it, it will be impossible to quarantine or self-isolate.

No, it's irrational.

You only have to self-isolate for one week if you're sick. How many loo rolls or kitchen towels do you use in one week?


No it's rational. If you want to significantly reduce your risk of catching the virus while there is a peak of demand on the healthservices, you have to self-isolate for the coming weeks or months, and minimize trips outside of the house.

The most intelligent thing to do if you plan to do the above, is to stock up now, while the prevalence of infection is still very llow in your country.

Self-isolation is almost now the policy for the whole population in countries like Spain, Italy, Israel, much of China (where it's lasted more than a month in Hubei).

Originally Posted by bennevis


(If you're still sick after one week, you'll likely be in hospital.)

Quote
You realize that supermarket home delivery will require weeks of booking in advance.

No, it doesn't.

If I order online now from Sainsbury's or Tesco, it will be delivered today. Unless they run out.


There will only be around 5-10% of capacity for supermarket home delivery to reach the people who are self-isolating. And this is only just beginning.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/...ine-wait-a-week-for-deliveries-jgcbk95j6

It's far more rational to stock up now, especially as there is no cost to it, while the potential cost of not stocking up is very large.

Originally Posted by bennevis

Quote
If you want to avoid having a high chance of getting the virus, the only way is to stock up now, while it's not yet prevalent in the general public.

Eh?

The public has already been told to self-isolate if they have symptoms. So, no-one should be outside coughing out germs.


Viral load and shedding is almost the same for asymptomatic and presymptomatic patients, as it is for symptomatic ones.

So even if we lived in a utopian fantasy world where everyone obeyed the rules and self-isolated at the first sign of symptoms, this would not eliminate the chance of getting infected when you're out in public. https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/sites/de...el-coronavirus-disease-2019-COVID-19.pdf
Originally Posted by bennevis

If you keep at least one metre from everyone else and never touch your face unless your hands have been thoroughly washed, you won't catch it.

This is the joint letter from the supermarkets:
"We would ask everyone to be considerate in the way they shop. We understand your concerns but buying more than is needed can sometimes mean that others will be left without. There is enough for everyone if we all work together."

Sorry, this claim is not true at all, at least in the current way you phrased it. If you wrote it as a probability statement, where keeping 1 metre distance, reduces your probability of infection on each outing by a certain - n (which is necessarily less than p), then it could be sensible advice.

This is primarily transmitted as an airborne infection, so (depending on air temperatures and therefore absolute humidity rates) there is a probability of breathing it in, once it has been released into the air. What the probability of infection is unknown, as is the distance you will need to lower the probability of infection to an inconsequential level.

"Coronavirus can travel twice as far as official ‘safe distance’ and stay in air for 30 minutes, Chinese study finds"

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/sci...wice-far-official-safe-distance-and-stay
Originally Posted by Carey
Originally Posted by dogperson
The estimated infection rate for the US alone is between 70-100 million. Take 1% of that to see the estimated number of deaths if we don’t break the cycle :

700,000 deaths for US alone.

Seems like we better work very hard to break the cycle.

I realize its going to get worse before it gets better, but let's pray that it never gets to the "estimated" level you describe.
Not wishing this thread to evolve into a solely political discussion, I want to add to my statement above by saying that my music making activities are and will continue to be affected by this - as should be the case. Our monthly piano club has cancelled its March meeting - and most likely won't meet in April either. The Musical Instrument Museum in Phoenix (where I volunteer) has temporarily ceased all special programs, concerts and school tours - however the main galleries are still open to the public. It is unknown whether the church choir that I participate in will continue to sing or if we we suspend services during the coming weeks. Perhaps this is a good opportunity to stay home and learn new repertoire.
Originally Posted by 3am_stargazing
Originally Posted by bennevis
Originally Posted by 3am_stargazing

The stocking up is rational - without it, it will be impossible to quarantine or self-isolate.

No, it's irrational.

You only have to self-isolate for one week if you're sick. How many loo rolls or kitchen towels do you use in one week?


No it's rational. If you want to significantly reduce your risk of catching the virus while there is a peak of demand on the healthservices, you have to self-isolate for the coming weeks or months, and minimize trips outside of the house.

The most intelligent thing to do if you plan to do the above, is to stock up now, while the prevalence of infection is still very llow in your country.

So, you want to prevent others from buying essential stuff - like toilet paper, forcing them to make repeated trips to the shops until they strike lucky? Especially the elderly and the poor, who cannot afford to buy more than they need?

Every man for himself.......




Quote

Viral load and shedding is almost the same for asymptomatic and presymptomatic patients, as it is for symptomatic ones.

No, that's wrong.

You need to look at the real research.


Quote
"Coronavirus can travel twice as far as official ‘safe distance’ and stay in air for 30 minutes, Chinese study finds"

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/sci...wice-far-official-safe-distance-and-stay

That is deeply flawed. Read it carefully: and how does one move around in a bus which is not completely stationary?

BTW, are you planning to live like a hermit in your home for the next few months - possibly a year or more, because there will almost certainly be a second wave, just the like 1916 flu pandemic - because every time you leave, the wind could blow airborne viruses your way? Have you stockpiled enough supplies for the next twelve months?

Incidentally, don't forget that your post is all contaminated and the virus stays alive on hard surfaces for a long time, so make sure your postman doesn't just drop it through your letterbox.

No visitors of course, and your pets are potential carriers - they must never leave your home. Keep all your windows closed tight. thumb

Now that the kindergarten is shut down and my wife is doing home office all week I have both the kids and my wife at home all day long. That means basically I cannot really play, at least not longer than say 10 minutes in total per day. But, okay, there are other problems.
Originally Posted by bennevis
Originally Posted by 3am_stargazing
Originally Posted by bennevis
Originally Posted by 3am_stargazing

The stocking up is rational - without it, it will be impossible to quarantine or self-isolate.

No, it's irrational.

You only have to self-isolate for one week if you're sick. How many loo rolls or kitchen towels do you use in one week?


No it's rational. If you want to significantly reduce your risk of catching the virus while there is a peak of demand on the healthservices, you have to self-isolate for the coming weeks or months, and minimize trips outside of the house.

The most intelligent thing to do if you plan to do the above, is to stock up now, while the prevalence of infection is still very llow in your country.

So, you want to prevent others from buying essential stuff - like toilet paper, forcing them to make repeated trips to the shops until they strike lucky? Especially the elderly and the poor, who cannot afford to buy more than they need?

Every man for himself.......

Again, it's the opposite of that - as the most selfish thing you can do is to spread this virus to someone else. It can kill them. The most selfless thing you can do is to self-isolate/increase social distancing.

The way for people to successfully isolate is for them to stock up now, while the prevalence of the virus is still very low in the population.

https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/observations/preparing-for-coronavirus-to-strike-the-u-s/

The more people can self-isolate and increase social distancing, the slower the virus will transmit through the population, and the less the burden will be on the health services.

Originally Posted by bennevis


Quote

Viral load and shedding is almost the same for asymptomatic and presymptomatic patients, as it is for symptomatic ones.

No, that's wrong.

You need to look at the real research.

Read the citation https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/sites/de...el-coronavirus-disease-2019-COVID-19.pdf

So you think the EU Centre of Disease Prevention and Control needs to look at "real research". Then I hope you contact them and offer your expertise.
Originally Posted by bennevis

Quote
"Coronavirus can travel twice as far as official ‘safe distance’ and stay in air for 30 minutes, Chinese study finds"

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/sci...wice-far-official-safe-distance-and-stay

That is deeply flawed. Read it carefully: and how does one move around in a bus which is not completely stationary?

According to what research, do you believe it is "deeply flawed". The time and distance by which this virus can transmit as droplets and/or aerosol is an object of current research (and it probably will vary with absolute humidity rates). Research as to what distance it can travel is new and ongoing.

General advice has traditionally been that coughs can transmit virus containing droplets 2.5 metres. However, new research argues that droplets smaller than 10 µm can be transmitted dozens of metres. https://www.researchgate.net/public...piratory_events_On_coughing_and_sneezing

At the same time, it is known that COVID-19 can be transmitted in droplets of 5 µm

Originally Posted by bennevis

BTW, are you planning to live like a hermit in your home for the next few months - possibly a year or more, because there will almost certainly be a second wave, just the like 1916 flu pandemic - because every time you leave, the wind could blow airborne viruses your way? Have you stockpiled enough supplies for the next twelve months?

Incidentally, don't forget that your post is all contaminated and the virus stays alive on hard surfaces for a long time, so make sure your postman doesn't just drop it through your letterbox.

No visitors of course, and your pets are potential carriers - they must never leave your home. Keep all your windows closed tight. thumb


There is no indication that pets transmit this to humans. I assume there is no need to keep your windows closed tight, as this is mainly transmitted by airborne droplets, rather than aerosol.

As for post - if you are that concerned, you can leave it for a couple of days before opening it.

I'm not worried about being infected myself, as I am in a very low risk group for developing a serious illness from this virus. However, when my term ends, I am worried about infecting older family members.

Fortunately, social distancing is not difficult in our case, as we have a large house, with a large garden. I can still cycle and drive (unless we enter lockdown next week), work and study remotely, and talk to friends on skype.

As for supplies. My family has been stocking up like everyone else. We even bought another freezer.
imo difference between stocking up to self-isolate and panic hoarding is buying 1 month supply of toilet paper vs. 1 year supply of toilet paper.
Originally Posted by 3am_stargazing

Again, it's the opposite of that - as the most selfish thing you can do is to spread this virus to someone else. It can kill them. The most selfless thing you can do is to self-isolate/increase social distancing.

The way for people to successfully isolate is for them to stock up now, while the prevalence of the virus is still very low in the population.

https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/observations/preparing-for-coronavirus-to-strike-the-u-s/

The more people can self-isolate and increase social distancing, the slower the virus will transmit through the population, and the less the burden will be on the health services.

You haven't answered my question: are you going to live like a hermit for the next year, and live totally alone in your home and never go out - and have no visitors? You said you have a family. Is your whole family going to isolate themselves alongside you? Because otherwise they can spread the virus around, according to yourself.

Or are you just justifying what you're doing, buying up stuff and depriving other people of essential provisions?





Quote


Read the citation https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/sites/de...el-coronavirus-disease-2019-COVID-19.pdf

So you think the EU Centre of Disease Prevention and Control needs to look at "real research". Then I hope you contact them and offer your expertise.


Did you notice the pertinent phrase in it?

Viral shedding does not equate to infectivity, which is actually greatest in the first five days of the onset of symptoms.



Quote
According to what research, do you believe it is "deeply flawed". The time and distance by which this virus can transmit as droplets and/or aerosol is an object of current research (and it probably will vary with absolute humidity rates). Research as to what distance it can travel is new and ongoing.

General advice has traditionally been that coughs can transmit virus containing droplets 2.5 metres. However, new research argues that droplets smaller than 10 µm can be transmitted dozens of metres.

Are you going to stand in front of anyone who's coughing without covering his mouth? I've never coughed (not even in my own home) without covering my mouth. No-one would dare to do so in public anymore.

Also, you should read the whole original article (about the bus) carefully.

Have you ever been on a bus?




Quote
As for supplies. My family has been stocking up like everyone else. We even bought another freezer.

Good for you. I assume you and your family will not be doing any food shopping for the next 365 days, otherwise you'll be a risk to everyone, right? (Even though the supermarkets will remain open.)

Tough luck on all those you deprived of basic stuff.
This crisis has brought out the best and the worst in people.
Come on folks. It’s here and we have to deal with it so let’s pull together like we did on 9/11. Don’t be a pig. Think of your neighbor. Buy what you need. Share what you can.

Why not donate to a food bank or Meals-on-Wheels? How about supporting your local merchants by sending bagels or treats to your local police or fire department? Buy a gift certificate to a local restaurant to enjoy later. You can do all those things remotely. Stop griping. It’s not productive. Help where you can, and for heavens sake, make some music!
Today is the last day before local bars & restaurants shut indefinitely. Made a point to eat out with 2 buddies. Most started to eat at home. Mass hysteria?

The local government say avoid large gatherings means practice music at home.
I am actually enjoying all this quiet time away from teaching. Great time to re-learn all the pieces that I haven't played in years. I even started learning several new pieces.

About 75% of my students cancelled lessons until further notice. Thankfully I've saved up enough to ride out this storm. But the worst part is dealing with the crazies at the supermarket. I had to drive to four different markets just to round up enough food for three days, and I bought such random assortment of stuff--whatever was left on the shelves--cooking has been a creative activity.
They officially moved all instruction online for the rest of the semester at the university where I take classes. Bad news for my piano teacher, who is a bit of a luddite. The school has a very nice online space where teachers can make assignments, give tests, discuss topics, and so forth. I have used it for other classes and it has worked OK - not as good as attending class in person, but it works.

I am taking "Collaborative Keyboard Skills II" this semester (my piano teacher is the professor). We are assigned pieces to play with instrumentalists. Before the virus we did violin and clarinet, and were halfway through flute when classes stopped. We still had a trumpet player coming in to do the Haydn Concerto later. So how do you do that when you can't meet in person? My experience with skype is that when I am playing I can't hear the other person talking, much less playing an instrument. And the latency and dropouts would make it impossible. I have no confidence that my teacher could figure it out anyway.

One of the piano students is supposed to have her half recital this semester - last I heard they were trying to come up with a solution. She needs 2 pianos for one piece, so I offered my house, where I temporarily have one too many pianos. She may just have to record it and submit that.

Another of the piano students is also a composition major, and was supposed to have their recital - with a half dozen student performers. And then there is concert band, wind ensemble, and the chorus - all cancelled.

And I still have a month and a half of piano lessons this semester. I can do skype, but I doubt my teacher can cope. Thankfully I had my full recital March 1st, or I would be really stressed now. This is my last semester...

Sam
That is very generous of you Sam to offer your space for the student doing the half recital.

I am going to cancel my lesson on Thursday. I have a 3 week break after this weeks lesson already in place so it will now be a 4 week break and possibly longer. If isolation is to continue, hopefully the teachers can organize themselves to provide online lessons in the meantime. But that means I should also look into buying myself something to record with that will work with zoom.
Originally Posted by AZNpiano
But the worst part is dealing with the crazies at the supermarket. I had to drive to four different markets just to round up enough food for three days, and I bought such random assortment of stuff--whatever was left on the shelves--cooking has been a creative activity.


You can pretend to be a contestant on Chopped!
For those that thought the UK's approach toward 60% infection and "herd immunity" was sensible, realistic and practical, well, it seems there has been a change of heart based on the newest data from Italy's death and devastation.
Originally Posted by Tyrone Slothrop
For those that thought the UK's approach toward 60% infection and "herd immunity" was sensible, realistic and practical, well, it seems there has been a change of heart based on the newest data from Italy's death and devastation.

My wife tells me the Dutch authority have just announced their "herd immunity" strategy (although my wife refers to it as horde immunity LOL). They seem to be on a one week delay from the British.
Originally Posted by Tyrone Slothrop
For those that thought the UK's approach toward 60% infection and "herd immunity" was sensible, realistic and practical, well, it seems there has been a change of heart based on the newest data from Italy's death and devastation.
It's a new modeling study, not new data.
The so-called 'herd immunity' has been taken too literally by many people. Boris and his henchmen (the CMO and CSO) have been on press conferences since to clarify what they meant. The aim is definitely not to get 80% of the population infected.

It is basically a by-product of the recognition that the virus is already widespread, the battle to contain it has long been lost, and we are presently just trying to reduce the numbers catching it at any one time so that the health service is not suddenly overwhelmed as in Italy - i.e. 'flattening the curve' while trying to keep the vulnerable people shielded. To keep the public on our side (and don't forget, this is a free society, with people not used to restrictions and authoritative directives, unlike China), the government is doing it stage by stage, based on the numbers infected and the death toll. (Obviously, the numbers are starting to spiral quickly, which is why Boris has had to bring in more restrictions earlier than he expected.)

For example, the French baulked at Macron telling people to stop their social life: at the weekend, Parisians were out kissing and cuddling beside the Eiffel Tower as normal, disregarding the 'social distancing' advice......which is why he has now imposed draconian measures using the police. The Italians went through the same phase two weeks earlier.

Whether the UK will go down the same route is dependent on whether the public will comply voluntarily without being forced to. The law is not involved at present, there are no police telling anyone outside to go back home unless they are at work. After all, we have had experience of hunkering down during the Blitz.......except that there're few still alive who lived through that time and remembers it. And the British, with their stiff (even rigid) upper lips are far less kissy and touchy-feely and huggy than our friends and foes across the Channel, and not given to overt shows of affection (- which is definitely not a good idea anymore.........).
Originally Posted by Tyrone Slothrop
For those that thought the UK's approach toward 60% infection and "herd immunity" was sensible, realistic and practical, well, it seems there has been a change of heart based on the newest data from Italy's death and devastation.

Not a change of heart, merely a sensible approach as bennevis explained. I am 78 and the groups that I am involved with are mostly in their 60's, 70's and 80's and their approach is simple enough. If you have health problems you isolate. If you don't you carry on, particularly with outdoor activities. I was at a wildlife trust meeting last Wednesday, members in the age range mentioned, and it was probably the healthiest meeting I have ever been too. Numbers down, only 29, and not a sniffle during entire meeting and just a single cough - most unusual.
Originally Posted by Stubbie
Originally Posted by Tyrone Slothrop
For those that thought the UK's approach toward 60% infection and "herd immunity" was sensible, realistic and practical, well, it seems there has been a change of heart based on the newest data from Italy's death and devastation.
It's a new modeling study, not new data.

from the article:
Quote
The modelling study, by a team led by Neil Ferguson, a professor of mathematical biology at Imperial College London, used new data gathered from Italy where the infectious disease epidemic has surged in recent weeks.
Originally Posted by Colin Miles
Originally Posted by Tyrone Slothrop
For those that thought the UK's approach toward 60% infection and "herd immunity" was sensible, realistic and practical, well, it seems there has been a change of heart based on the newest data from Italy's death and devastation.

Not a change of heart, merely a sensible approach as bennevis explained. I am 78 and the groups that I am involved with are mostly in their 60's, 70's and 80's and their approach is simple enough. If you have health problems you isolate. If you don't you carry on, particularly with outdoor activities. I was at a wildlife trust meeting last Wednesday, members in the age range mentioned, and it was probably the healthiest meeting I have ever been too. Numbers down, only 29, and not a sniffle during entire meeting and just a single cough - most unusual.

You two are normalizing. This article states clearly there is a change in strategy. So was the old strategy the "sensible approach" or the new strategy is the "sensible approach"? Or did one sensible approach give way to an even more "sensible approach"? And if the UK changes its approach again, will that be the "most sensible approach of all"?
Quote
  • The UK abruptly changed its coronavirus strategy Monday after new data suggested its existing approach would result in the deaths of hundreds of thousands of people.
  • A report by world-leading scientists at Imperial College London said the UK government realized only "in the last few days" that its existing strategy was not workable.
  • Prime Minister Boris Johnson had come under heavy criticism for a plan designed only to mitigate the virus' spread in the UK rather than attempting to suppress it.
  • The government's new "suppression" strategy involves telling people to work at home and limit all nonessential human contact over the coming months.

"Making perfect sense" means "sensible" right? Not to pick on you Bennevis, but I do think this is a good example of the "normalizing" where the Government changes its approach and all the sheeple say hallelujah every time. On Friday, you said:
Quote
I watched all the press conferences, and what they're doing right now makes perfect sense to me.

Then today it's been reported that:
Quote
The UK abruptly changed its coronavirus strategy Monday after new data suggested its existing approach would result in the deaths of hundreds of thousands of people.

And you've now said:
Quote
It is basically a by-product of the recognition that the virus is already widespread, the battle to contain it has long been lost, and we are presently just trying to reduce the numbers catching it at any one time so that the health service is not suddenly overwhelmed as in Italy - i.e. 'flattening the curve' while trying to keep the vulnerable people shielded. To keep the public on our side (and don't forget, this is a free society, with people not used to restrictions and authoritative directives, unlike China), the government is doing it stage by stage, based on the numbers infected and the death toll. (Obviously, the numbers are starting to spiral quickly, which is why Boris has had to bring in more restrictions earlier than he expected.)

Which is normalizing this change in strategy and making it seem like not a change at all.

What you say makes perfect sense, but understand how this makes you sound. Like the Government knows best and they are always right.
Originally Posted by Tyrone Slothrop

You two are normalizing. This article states clearly there is a change in strategy. So was the old strategy the "sensible approach" or the new strategy is the "sensible approach"? Or did one sensible approach give way to an even more "sensible approach"? And if the UK changes its approach again, will that be the "most sensible approach of all"?
Quote
  • The UK abruptly changed its coronavirus strategy Monday after new data suggested its existing approach would result in the deaths of hundreds of thousands of people.
  • A report by world-leading scientists at Imperial College London said the UK government realized only "in the last few days" that its existing strategy was not workable.
  • Prime Minister Boris Johnson had come under heavy criticism for a plan designed only to mitigate the virus' spread in the UK rather than attempting to suppress it.
  • The government's new "suppression" strategy involves telling people to work at home and limit all nonessential human contact over the coming months.


It is better to avoid criticizing another nation's strategy on Covid-19 unless you are actually in it - especially if you base it on what a journalist in another country wrote. Every country does what it deems to be best for its people.

Boris told the nation in his first press conference last week that everything was under constant review, and that more restrictive measures would be introduced as and when it is deemed necessary. For some strange reason, some people - like you - think that the UK was going to stick to its softly, softly approach all through the pandemic, and that nothing would deviate the government from its set path. This is definitely not the case. Unlike you, I have seen and heard all his press conferences. (I have also seen Mr Trump's, but that's another story).

He certainly brought in more restrictive measures a week or so earlier than anticipated based on earlier models because of newer modelling, but it was always on the agenda that things would move depending on how the crisis panned out. He talked about us being a 'liberal democracy' and invoked 'personal responsibility' to help everyone get through it, and that it was a 'national effort', bearing in mind that our lives would change completely in the near future, possibly forever. Simply put, he is trying to carry the nation with him, in what needs to happen now and in the next few days and weeks.

As I said, he didn't want to bring in highly restrictive measures too quickly too soon because it would be counter-productive (already Age Concern are worrying about the mental health of elderly people forced to go into self-isolation) - and to be frank, being in the thick of it as I am, I am fully supportive of his management so far.

So, let's get a sense of perspective.
Originally Posted by Tyrone Slothrop
Originally Posted by Stubbie
Originally Posted by Tyrone Slothrop
For those that thought the UK's approach toward 60% infection and "herd immunity" was sensible, realistic and practical, well, it seems there has been a change of heart based on the newest data from Italy's death and devastation.
It's a new modeling study, not new data.

from the article:
Quote
The modelling study, by a team led by Neil Ferguson, a professor of mathematical biology at Imperial College London, used new data gathered from Italy where the infectious disease epidemic has surged in recent weeks.
Just pointing out that it's still a modelling study that resulted in a new projection. People tend to take modeling results as actual fact.
Originally Posted by Stubbie
Just pointing out that it's still a modelling study that resulted in a new projection. People tend to take modeling results as actual fact.

Especially the media.
Originally Posted by bennevis
Originally Posted by 3am_stargazing

Again, it's the opposite of that - as the most selfish thing you can do is to spread this virus to someone else. It can kill them. The most selfless thing you can do is to self-isolate/increase social distancing.

The way for people to successfully isolate is for them to stock up now, while the prevalence of the virus is still very low in the population.

https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/observations/preparing-for-coronavirus-to-strike-the-u-s/

The more people can self-isolate and increase social distancing, the slower the virus will transmit through the population, and the less the burden will be on the health services.

You haven't answered my question: are you going to live like a hermit for the next year, and live totally alone in your home and never go out - and have no visitors? You said you have a family. Is your whole family going to isolate themselves alongside you? Because otherwise they can spread the virus around, according to yourself.

Or are you just justifying what you're doing, buying up stuff and depriving other people of essential provisions?

Outside term, I live at home with my parents, one of them is already over 60. So it's definitely not selfish to self-isolate, as at their age they could be at quite high risk of being hospitalized or even dying from this virus.

As for "living like a hermit" - fortunately we have a relatively large house, with a nice garden. We can go for walks, and can still cycle and drive. Or one person could go sometimes to the supermarket (with gloves, mask, etc), and the risk will be really very low. Everyone can work/study and meet friends remotely.

The most selfless thing to do is social distancing/self-isolation, so we don't contribute to spreading the virus, or burden the hospital by becoming sick.

Originally Posted by bennevis


Quote


Read the citation https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/sites/de...el-coronavirus-disease-2019-COVID-19.pdf

So you think the EU Centre of Disease Prevention and Control needs to look at "real research". Then I hope you contact them and offer your expertise.


Did you notice the pertinent phrase in it?

Viral shedding does not equate to infectivity, which is actually greatest in the first five days of the onset of symptoms.

Viral shedding doesn't necessarily equate to infectivity in every case, but viral shedding makes it something very possible. Infectivity should be lower because you are not coughing/sneezing. But you could still transmit the virus in the other ways as it is being shed from the body.

This is a new virus which has only been studied for a few weeks. Asymptomatic spread is one of the likely possibilities for how it is spreading at the moment.
https://edition.cnn.com/2020/03/14/health/coronavirus-asymptomatic-spread/index.html
Originally Posted by bennevis


Quote
According to what research, do you believe it is "deeply flawed". The time and distance by which this virus can transmit as droplets and/or aerosol is an object of current research (and it probably will vary with absolute humidity rates). Research as to what distance it can travel is new and ongoing.

General advice has traditionally been that coughs can transmit virus containing droplets 2.5 metres. However, new research argues that droplets smaller than 10 µm can be transmitted dozens of metres.

Are you going to stand in front of anyone who's coughing without covering his mouth? I've never coughed (not even in my own home) without covering my mouth. No-one would dare to do so in public anymore.

Also, you should read the whole original article (about the bus) carefully.

Have you ever been on a bus?

I was just out cycling and someone on foot (I was cycling past) coughed almost directly onto me.

Obviously, I've been on a bus. I did my first degree in London and used the bus everyday.
Originally Posted by bennevis


Quote
As for supplies. My family has been stocking up like everyone else. We even bought another freezer.

Good for you. I assume you and your family will not be doing any food shopping for the next 365 days, otherwise you'll be a risk to everyone, right? (Even though the supermarkets will remain open.)

Tough luck on all those you deprived of basic stuff.

Well yesterday, I bought 5 bottles of extra virgin olive oil, as it was unusually in stock. But all the pasta was sold out. And a woman in front of me put an entire shelf of corned beef in her trolley.
Originally Posted by 3am_stargazing


As for "living like a hermit" - again we have a large house, with a large garden. We can go for walks, and can still cycle and drive. Or one person could go to the supermarket (with masks and gloves) .

So, why do you feel the need to empty the shelves at the supermarket and stock up a new freezer, depriving others - like myself, in the front line of helping the victims of the virus - of essential provisions?

This was what a Labour MP said in the House of Commons yesterday, word for word:

"Panic buying and stockpiling is not who we are as a country. It is not necessary, it makes it harder to protect the most vulnerable, and in turn, puts our people at greater risk of becoming ill. It adds unnecessary strain to our NHS and to its wonderful staff.

It may feel like Britain has been fraying at its edges in the past few days, Mr Speaker, but images of empty shelves have not helped matters."
Originally Posted by bennevis
Originally Posted by 3am_stargazing


As for "living like a hermit" - again we have a large house, with a large garden. We can go for walks, and can still cycle and drive. Or one person could go to the supermarket (with masks and gloves) .

So, why do you feel the need to empty the shelves at the supermarket and stock up a new freezer, depriving others - like myself, in the front line of helping the victims of the virus - of essential provisions?

This was what a Labour MP said in the House of Commons yesterday, word for word:

"Panic buying and stockpiling is not who we are as a country. It is not necessary, it makes it harder to protect the most vulnerable, and in turn, puts our people at greater risk of becoming ill. It adds unnecessary strain to our NHS and to its wonderful staff.

It may feel like Britain has been fraying at its edges in the past few days, Mr Speaker, but images of empty shelves have not helped matters."


By stocking up, you reduce the need to go into a public space (like shops), which reduces the chance of being infected.

Not being infected (and therefore not contributing to the virus spread, or burdening the hospital), is the most selfless thing we can do in an epidemic.

So once the virus is prevalent in the population, you can reduce your risk of catching it by limiting how often you expose yourself to the risk.

In the UK, they say the epidemic might only peak in late May or early June. We have only 5000 ventilators available in the country. If people self-isolate and socially distance themselves, they will save lives in more than one way (reducing spread of the virus to others and not getting sick themselves and using one of the ventilators which is in limited supply).
Originally Posted by Tyrone Slothrop
]The UK abruptly changed its coronavirus strategy Monday after new data suggested its existing approach would result in the deaths of hundreds of thousands of people.[/I]

You are taking the rather exaggerated media reporting at face value. It was always said policy would change as circumstances changed.

Just reading that a 2nd person has died in Wales of coronavirus - 96 year old with underlying health problems. And the funeral and wake of our 97 year old former president of the local wildlife trust has been cancelled.
Originally Posted by Tyrone Slothrop
For those that thought the UK's approach toward 60% infection and "herd immunity" was sensible, realistic and practical, well, it seems there has been a change of heart based on the newest data from Italy's death and devastation.


"Herd immunity" wasn't ever the plan. The gov has been discussing this since earlier in the year and they published their plans on march 3rd and it hasn't really changed since. We're just progressing through the phases of it based on how the infection has spread and any new data.

https://www.gov.uk/government/publi...ide-to-what-you-can-expect-across-the-uk



A lot of what was planned however has been confused in a chinese whispers kind of way by the time it was discussed/reported on by the media.

There's an interesting pdf that covers part of what is informing UK (and other) policy atm https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/im...ege-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf

What that study has likely done, is increase the govs urgency to move down the steps of their existing plans, quicker.
Originally Posted by 3am_stargazing
[By stocking up, you reduce the need to go into a public space (like shops), which reduces the chance of being infected.

Not being infected (and therefore not contributing to the virus spread, or burdening the hospital), is the most selfless thing we can do in an epidemic.

So once the virus is prevalent in the population, you can reduce your risk of catching it by limiting how often you expose yourself to the risk.



In other words, you're still not getting it.

Others are having to make repeated trips to the supermarkets to try to get toilet rolls etc because they are running out of them at home, but they keep finding the shelves empty because of people like you. And you're still basking in a misplaced and spurious sense of "altruism" and "selflessness" when in fact, you're the one who's selfish and causing the problem for everyone else. You're forcing others to multiply their risk making lots of trips and going into one store after another to find basic stuff, but you're OK, because, well, it's their problem for not having enough money to stockpile like you, right?

You're still going out, including to the shops when you want to, but you've already emptied the shelves of all the essential stuff that others need......and you still think you're doing the nation a favour?? After all, you're not going to isolate yourself and your family completely for the next year, are you? Is going out to the supermarket once a week (with full mask and gown if you believe you need it) to buy what you need, and not touching your face (have you learnt that yet?) going to get you infected?

Originally Posted by bennevis
Originally Posted by Tyrone Slothrop

You two are normalizing. This article states clearly there is a change in strategy. So was the old strategy the "sensible approach" or the new strategy is the "sensible approach"? Or did one sensible approach give way to an even more "sensible approach"? And if the UK changes its approach again, will that be the "most sensible approach of all"?
Quote
  • The UK abruptly changed its coronavirus strategy Monday after new data suggested its existing approach would result in the deaths of hundreds of thousands of people.
  • A report by world-leading scientists at Imperial College London said the UK government realized only "in the last few days" that its existing strategy was not workable.
  • Prime Minister Boris Johnson had come under heavy criticism for a plan designed only to mitigate the virus' spread in the UK rather than attempting to suppress it.
  • The government's new "suppression" strategy involves telling people to work at home and limit all nonessential human contact over the coming months.


It is better to avoid criticizing another nation's strategy on Covid-19 unless you are actually in it - especially if you base it on what a journalist in another country wrote. Every country does what it deems to be best for its people.

Boris told the nation in his first press conference last week that everything was under constant review, and that more restrictive measures would be introduced as and when it is deemed necessary. For some strange reason, some people - like you - think that the UK was going to stick to its softly, softly approach all through the pandemic, and that nothing would deviate the government from its set path. This is definitely not the case. Unlike you, I have seen and heard all his press conferences. (I have also seen Mr Trump's, but that's another story).

He certainly brought in more restrictive measures a week or so earlier than anticipated based on earlier models because of newer modelling, but it was always on the agenda that things would move depending on how the crisis panned out. He talked about us being a 'liberal democracy' and invoked 'personal responsibility' to help everyone get through it, and that it was a 'national effort', bearing in mind that our lives would change completely in the near future, possibly forever. Simply put, he is trying to carry the nation with him, in what needs to happen now and in the next few days and weeks.

As I said, he didn't want to bring in highly restrictive measures too quickly too soon because it would be counter-productive (already Age Concern are worrying about the mental health of elderly people forced to go into self-isolation) - and to be frank, being in the thick of it as I am, I am fully supportive of his management so far.

So, let's get a sense of perspective.


You can't just shut someone down because they don't live somewhere you do. I live in the UK, my perspective is far closer to Tyrone's than yours bennevis. I just don't have the time and energy to go into why so I appreciate very much Tyrone's input.

Boris has always been behind the curve, but worse than that his ludicrous position on just ride it out always sounded dangerous the way he presented it. Just like his enthusiastic promotion of shaking hands
Boris enthusiasitically endorsing shaking peoples hands in hospitals
Just a personal perspective: I have been using grocery delivery for a long while, with no problems. As of today, delivery no longer exists. Why? All the hoarding has so decimated the shelves that the store can’t fulfill orders. I am in a risk group for Coronavirus and must now venture to the store, or multiple stores, to meet basic needs.
Originally Posted by KevinM

You can't just shut someone down because they don't live somewhere you do. I live in the UK, my perspective is far closer to Tyrone's than yours bennevis. I just don't have the time and energy to go into why so I appreciate very much Tyrone's input.

No, I'm not "shutting someone down" as you so colourfully put it.

I'm simply pointing out that he doesn't have access to all the facts. Just as I don't comment on the US's management of their own problems, because I don't have access to Fox or CNN.

Quote
Boris has always been behind the curve, but worse than that his ludicrous position on just ride it out always sounded dangerous the way he presented it. Just like his enthusiastic promotion of shaking hands
Boris enthusiasitically endorsing shaking peoples hands in hospitals

I think it's obvious you can't stand Boris (I'm not a fan of his either), but you shouldn't let his colourful personality prejudice your perception on his management of the current pandemic, which the vast majority of people in the UK (not just the doctors & scientists involved in advising the government) agree with.
Originally Posted by dogperson
I am in a risk group for Coronavirus and must now venture to the store, or multiple stores, to meet basic needs.
Me too - age and situation wise - and I also have to shop for my 94 year old mother. This morning my wife couldn't even get into Costco....it was too crowded. That's a first !!
Originally Posted by Carey
Originally Posted by dogperson
I am in a risk group for Coronavirus and must now venture to the store, or multiple stores, to meet basic needs.
Me too - age and situation wise - and I also have to shop for my 94 year old mother. This morning my wife couldn't even get into Costco....it was too crowded. That's a first !!

Maybe you can convince your local store to open earlier (when fully stocked) specifically for older/high risk customers, like one supermarket chain is doing in the UK, and others also in Europe:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...arkets-banks-early-slots-older-customers

It's also good PR for them........
Originally Posted by bennevis
Originally Posted by Carey
Originally Posted by dogperson
I am in a risk group for Coronavirus and must now venture to the store, or multiple stores, to meet basic needs.
Me too - age and situation wise - and I also have to shop for my 94 year old mother. This morning my wife couldn't even get into Costco....it was too crowded. That's a first !!

Maybe you can convince your local store to open earlier (when fully stocked) specifically for older/high risk customers, like one supermarket chain is doing in the UK, and others also in Europe:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...arkets-banks-early-slots-older-customers

It's also good PR for them........


Good idea.... so far, none of the Florida chains have implemented it while some chains in other parts of the US have. I’ll call a couple of corporate offices
Here is what one of our farmers' markets is suggesting. The message is from the store owner:

Before I lose you with my long winded message, I'd like to speak to 'panic buying'. Please STOP. We aren't seeing it here, and for that we are grateful. This causes unnecessary stress on the supply chain, on staff in stores, and renders others without. I want to assure you that we do not have supply chain concerns, we will be here for you, with food on our shelves. You will however, notice a few compromises being made in our store due to lightened staff levels, we ask for your understanding as we prioritize everyone's health and safety by having fewer staff on shift at any given time, (for example, we will not have baggers on our tills, and you will see a few less options here and there in order to accommodate our increased sanitation procedures).

We are strongly suggesting that the first hour of the day 8-9am is the ideal time for the elderly or vulnerable to do their shopping (if they don't have someone to do it for them). Our customer volume is low, our staff levels are high and our store will have been freshly sanitized. We will not turn you away but If you are a low risk individual we suggest that you honour this window of time if you are able, out of respect for those in our community that are comforted by this accommodation.


Regards,
Originally Posted by dogperson
Originally Posted by bennevis
Originally Posted by Carey
Originally Posted by dogperson
I am in a risk group for Coronavirus and must now venture to the store, or multiple stores, to meet basic needs.
Me too - age and situation wise - and I also have to shop for my 94 year old mother. This morning my wife couldn't even get into Costco....it was too crowded. That's a first !!
Maybe you can convince your local store to open earlier (when fully stocked) specifically for older/high risk customers, like one supermarket chain is doing in the UK, and others also in Europe: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...arkets-banks-early-slots-older-customers It's also good PR for them........
Good idea.... so far, none of the Florida chains have implemented it while some chains in other parts of the US have. I’ll call a couple of corporate offices

I just found out a few minutes ago that THREE local grocery store chains in our city are doing exactly that - implementing a special hour reserved solely for seniors. The downside, however is that it is from 5 a.m. to 6 a.m.....but at least the stores will be freshly stocked.
Originally Posted by bennevis
which the vast majority of people in the UK (not just the doctors & scientists involved in advising the government) agree with.


You are correct I am not in agreement with the vast majority of people in the UK as your describe or the doctors or scientists involved in advising the government.
Originally Posted by bennevis
Originally Posted by 3am_stargazing
[By stocking up, you reduce the need to go into a public space (like shops), which reduces the chance of being infected.

Not being infected (and therefore not contributing to the virus spread, or burdening the hospital), is the most selfless thing we can do in an epidemic.

So once the virus is prevalent in the population, you can reduce your risk of catching it by limiting how often you expose yourself to the risk.



In other words, you're still not getting it.

Others are having to make repeated trips to the supermarkets to try to get toilet rolls etc because they are running out of them at home, but they keep finding the shelves empty because of people like you. And you're still basking in a misplaced and spurious sense of "altruism" and "selflessness" when in fact, you're the one who's selfish and causing the problem for everyone else. You're forcing others to multiply their risk making lots of trips and going into one store after another to find basic stuff, but you're OK, because, well, it's their problem for not having enough money to stockpile like you, right?

You're still going out, including to the shops when you want to, but you've already emptied the shelves of all the essential stuff that others need......and you still think you're doing the nation a favour?? After all, you're not going to isolate yourself and your family completely for the next year, are you? Is going out to the supermarket once a week (with full mask and gown if you believe you need it) to buy what you need, and not touching your face (have you learnt that yet?) going to get you infected?

Wow you are very opinionated about how other people should behave, which doesn't combine well with your apparent lack of knowledge about this epidemic.

I'll just post the article once again. https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/observations/preparing-for-coronavirus-to-strike-the-u-s/
Originally Posted by KevinM
Originally Posted by bennevis
which the vast majority of people in the UK (not just the doctors & scientists involved in advising the government) agree with.


You are correct I am not in agreement with the vast majority of people in the UK as your describe or the doctors or scientists involved in advising the government.

Since when do people think that Boris is doing a good job? Day by day, he is acting more chaotic, disorganised and shortsighted, and yet it was obvious what was going to happen back in January. They've had 2 months to act. Meanwhile, places like Taiwan and Hong Kong defeated the epidemic with good organization and planning, even though they had far less preparation less time than us before it arrived in their countries.

I assume this is the general view of Boris' strategy, for what it's worth. https://www.theguardian.com/comment...itain-herd-immunity-coronavirus-covid-19

And as for the state of the health service - they don't even have adequate personal protective equipment:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...e-leadership-a-doctors-story-coronavirus

Now Boris is suddenly asking companies like JCB with no expertise in the area to produce medical ventilators. Why didn't they order the ventilators 2 months ago, from companies which actually could produce them? https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-51896168

Why did they wait for 2 months before ordering ventilators? Now the situation is like:

"But questions remain over how engineering firms with no experience of producing ventilators will be able start manufacturing the complex medical devices...

Manufacturers asked by the government to produce thousands of ventilators to help save the lives of seriously affected victims of coronavirus are not ready to fill the demand.

Although firms including JCB, Unipart, Rolls-Royce and others are in close conversation with the government, no detailed blueprint for increased manufacture of the life-saving equipment currently exists.

One manufacturer told the BBC that comparisons with the accelerated manufacture of Spitfire aircraft during World War Two were misplaced, as there was no accepted design. Even if there was, there is no guarantee the components could be sourced in time to even start production in the next two months.

Ventilators are vital as medical experts estimate that between 10% and 20% of those who succumb to the virus will need critical care. Many of those will need help breathing.

Although firms stand ready and able to produce more ventilators, a lack of clarity on design specifications and component sourcing mean that production remains many weeks away."
Germany has 35,000 medical ventilators, and has already ordered another 10,000 from a German company which is specialized in producing them.

Meanwhile, the UK only has 5000 medical ventilators, with no local production, and Boris waited for 2 months when it was clear the epidemic was approaching, and then suddenly now asks unrelated companies like JCB and Rolls Royce to produce medical ventilators, even though they have never produced them before - few, if any of the ventilators being ordered will be ready in time for the peak of epidemic.
Originally Posted by 3am_stargazing

Wow you are very opinionated about how other people should behave, which doesn't combine well with your apparent lack of knowledge about this epidemic.


I call a spade when I see one.

Think of others less well-off than you, for a change. Open your eyes to those around you.


Originally Posted by bennevis
Originally Posted by 3am_stargazing

Wow you are very opinionated about how other people should behave, which doesn't combine well with your apparent lack of knowledge about this epidemic.


I call a spade when I see one.

Think of others less well-off than you, for a change.



Again, you combine being very opinionated about how other people should behave, with a very low amount of knowledge about the topic at hand. I'll post the article for a final time in the hope you will read it and perhaps absorb something. https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/observations/preparing-for-coronavirus-to-strike-the-u-s/
Originally Posted by 3am_stargazing
Again, you combine being very opinionated about how other people should behave, with a very low amount of knowledge about the topic at hand. I'll post the article for a final time in the hope you will read it and perhaps absorb something. https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/observations/preparing-for-coronavirus-to-strike-the-u-s/

Seriously, is that all you can post (and keep posting) to justify what you're doing - an article by someone who's neither medically qualified nor a real scientist, nor even an epidemiologist? I actually thought you were linking an article from a peer-reviewed medical journal, but I was obviously wrong.

I can say - in no uncertain terms - that I know a lot more about viruses and human transmission of diseases and hygienic practices than that author.
Originally Posted by bennevis
Originally Posted by 3am_stargazing

。。。

I call a spade when I see one.

。。。


and what if the other party haven't even ever seen a spade? :-)
As of this morning they've temporarily suspended church services, choir rehearsals and my monthly piano club meeting. The gym has shut down for two weeks (I've been avoiding it anyway). Probably going to postpone my upcoming b-day celebration with family members (no big deal - I don't need to be reminded of my advancing age). My taxes are done. Seems like I suddenly have lots more time to practice. In fact, unless I get sick (knock on wood), I have absolutely no excuse not to practice. smile

Just thought I'd try to steer the discussion back to the original topic........

Originally Posted by Carey
As of this morning they've temporarily suspended church services, choir rehearsals and my monthly piano club meeting. The gym has shut down for two weeks (I've been avoiding it anyway). Probably going to postpone my upcoming b-day celebration with family members (no big deal - I don't need to be reminded of my advancing age). My taxes are done. Seems like I suddenly have lots more time to practice. In fact, unless I get sick (knock on wood), I have absolutely no excuse not to practice. smile



Unfortunately, I'm going to be so busy that I'd be lucky to see my piano, as I'm right in the front line......

Fortunately (or unfortunately), my monthly recitals have been cancelled for the time being, so I have another n months (where n = any number from 3 to ∞ ) to polish my pieces.......

So, as the Monty Python song goes:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ep9Vzb6R_58
Originally Posted by bennevis

Unfortunately, I'm going to be so busy that I'd be lucky to see my piano, as I'm right in the front line......


Mind yourself.
Originally Posted by johnstaf
Originally Posted by bennevis

Unfortunately, I'm going to be so busy that I'd be lucky to see my piano, as I'm right in the front line......

Mind yourself.
Yes - do take care !
Originally Posted by Carey
Originally Posted by johnstaf
Originally Posted by bennevis

Unfortunately, I'm going to be so busy that I'd be lucky to see my piano, as I'm right in the front line......

Mind yourself.
Yes - do take care !

Thanks!

I might just be about to find out whether recent decades of healthy living and keeping myself fit have compensated for a misspent slothful youth (youth was always wasted on the young....... cry).
I am also in a high risk category. Instacart is still delivering in my area but the stores are out of many things. Forget about any cleaning supplies, toilet paper, tissues or any over the counter meds. That has been almost impossible to find for the last couple of weeks. Now they are out of many food items too. They are starting to open an hour early for just seniors or people at risk. It seems to me that this could have been avoided if the stores limited the quantity of items an individual could purchase. They have no problem limiting quantities when they are running a good deal on items. In our stores the only items that seem to be readily available are fresh produce since that spoils in a matter of days.
As for my lessons, my teacher cancelled for two weeks but I doubt this is going to get any better anytime soon. I will be asking about doing lessons through Zoom. I am working part time from home and just staying in the house.
It looks like our church services will be suspended March 19th - April 12th. Our K-12 schools will be closed as well and classes will be conduced offsite (online). I won't be at the pulpit or in the classroom again for 5 weeks. This is a first for me in 20 years of professional pastoral ministry.

One good thing that comes out of this crisis (for me) is that it challenges me to apply a basic tenet of my Christian faith. Jesus said that we should not worry about essentials necessary for survival like (food, clothing, etc.) Our prayer should be "give us this day our daily bread" (Matthew 6:11). This type of crisis encourages us to trust God day by day.

"But seek first the kingdom of God and His righteousness, and all these things shall be added to you.
Therefore do not worry about tomorrow, for tomorrow will worry about its own things. Sufficient for the day is its own trouble" (Matthew 6:33-34).

God Bless,
David
Not sure if this was posted before. Apologies if it was.

Apparently, people knew this was coming...and we did nothing. Sigh.

Originally Posted by David B
It looks like our church services will be suspended March 19th - April 12th. Our K-12 schools will be closed as well and classes will be conduced offsite (online). I won't be at the pulpit or in the classroom again for 5 weeks. This is a first for me in 20 years of professional pastoral ministry.

One good thing that comes out of this crisis (for me) is that it challenges me to apply a basic tenet of my Christian faith. Jesus said that we should not worry about essentials necessary for survival like (food, clothing, etc.) Our prayer should be "give us this day our daily bread" (Matthew 6:11). This type of crisis encourages us to trust God day by day.

"But seek first the kingdom of God and His righteousness, and all these things shall be added to you.
Therefore do not worry about tomorrow, for tomorrow will worry about its own things. Sufficient for the day is its own trouble" (Matthew 6:33-34).

God Bless,
David


Thank you I need this at the moment!
I say to everyone take care ,but remember the other's needs.
Unfortunatly, all the facts that happened in this world, since the beginning prove that god is not around but just a human creation....Because we ( and of course I include myself) know, and are afraid of dying.
God didn’t create humans ( this is sure and proven, we are the slow transformation of small mammals we can follow this with fossils, genetic etc...)
nor virus....
What for? Would he be so gentle and kind that he would have created them to kill us?.....


This epidemic demonstrate that there is no logic ( or a logic that we cannot accept...)
unfortunatly,
We live, we reproduce, we kill to survive, and some day, an other creature will kill us ...to survive ...or die with us ( virus)

We can find whatever we want to reassure ourselves... it’s the way it is, from the beginning.

The chaos in fact.....

I would like the things to be different of course ( because all religions offer us a kind of” nice gift package” and the promise of a better world ) but the more I get old, the more I’m convinced God is only “in” us.....

Facts, only facts.....coronavirus, malaria, etc, etc... do yo find god around? No....

Just the chaos....And human beings, like all the other animals living on earth have been pretty well adapted to it across the millennia .
And a possible extinction in the future will put an “end” to this fabulous story.
The reality is that the widespread diffusion of the virus was completely predictable and most medical experts predicted it already since several weeks given the various parameters which have not changed that much.

The impact on the healthcare system and personal and the risk of lack of ventilators was also perfectly obvious. So the social confinement was inevitable and should have been put in place much earlier. All responsible large corporations should have encouraged their employees to work remotely much earlier too. The only reason it was delayed is because governments needed to build evidence and the sense of urgency so that the population would accept to comply in the face of facts. There is not any other viable alternative strategy and there never was, so whatever some officials said before was just either incompetence, lack of political courage or a clever communication strategy (not exclusive). The only element that can eradicate completely the virus is a medical treatment yet to come.
Originally Posted by rolex67
Unfortunatly, all the facts that happened in this world, since the beginning prove that god is not around but just a human creation....Because we ( and of course I include myself) know, and are afraid of dying.


As an atheist I support those with religious beliefs and the attitude represented above does not reflect me.
Kevin, my post wasn’t a “reaction against “...
Far from that. Sorry if I was misunderstood.
I also support those with religious beliefs ( concept of respect, kindness between each other, love, help, etc ) And I would like to have their strength...

When you believe in god, you’re are not afraid of dying...( or it’s less unbearable)
Sidokar, exactly!

The best evidence of that is what happened in France 1 week ago:
The government decided to maintain the first run of elections ...with more than 50% of abstention....and then, set up the full confinement....
All I can add is that all my lessons have been cancelled, as all my concerts have, so: big practise time.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Isaac_Newton#Early_life

" ... Soon after Newton had obtained his BA degree in August 1665, the university temporarily closed as a precaution against the Great Plague. Although he had been undistinguished as a Cambridge student,[16] Newton's private studies at his home in Woolsthorpe over the subsequent two years saw the development of his theories on calculus,[17] optics, and the law of gravitation.

In April 1667, he returned to Cambridge and in October was elected as a fellow of Trinity."
My lessons have been cancelled and it's odd, but now that the pressure to be prepared is off, I am more eager to practice. Go figure.
I don't know if people have discussed this yet, but I'm wondering how anyone is handling having a piano tuner come. And if they do, how they handle cleaning the piano afterwords.
Originally Posted by toyboy
I don't know if people have discussed this yet, but I'm wondering how anyone is handling having a piano tuner come. And if they do, how they handle cleaning the piano afterwords.



It's actually a topic over in the "Tuner-Technicians" forum: Appointments
Originally Posted by David B
It looks like our church services will be suspended March 19th - April 12th. Our K-12 schools will be closed as well and classes will be conduced offsite (online). I won't be at the pulpit or in the classroom again for 5 weeks. This is a first for me in 20 years of professional pastoral ministry.

One good thing that comes out of this crisis (for me) is that it challenges me to apply a basic tenet of my Christian faith. Jesus said that we should not worry about essentials necessary for survival like (food, clothing, etc.) Our prayer should be "give us this day our daily bread" (Matthew 6:11). This type of crisis encourages us to trust God day by day.

"But seek first the kingdom of God and His righteousness, and all these things shall be added to you.
Therefore do not worry about tomorrow, for tomorrow will worry about its own things. Sufficient for the day is its own trouble" (Matthew 6:33-34).

God Bless,
David



Well said David.

Thank you.
Suite for cello and toilet paper

https://apple.news/AvLc7RTwDT527WdV-MnZ8vA
Originally Posted by dogperson
Suite for cello and toilet paper

https://apple.news/AvLc7RTwDT527WdV-MnZ8vA



laugh Humor will get us through this. Thanks for posting it!
Heard today Yo-Yo Ma got involved with something call #SongsOfComfort to let people share their music online and take our minds off the C-19 pandemic. You can find #SongsOfComfort on Facebook or Twitter.

Yo-Yo Ma on encouraging ‘Songs of Comfort’ amid global crisis
Bill Gates got onto Reddit Wednesday evening, several hours ago, and had a lengthy AMA (Ask Me Anything) session on COVID-19. He answered dozens of questions from the Reddit community on the Coronavirus and what the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation is doing about it until he signed off. You can see the questions and his answers here.
Some of you may be interested in this. This here is a scientific realtime dashboard which tracks the genomic epidemiology of COVID-19. In a few words, it tracks the mutation and transmission paths of COVID-19 spreading across the world. You can "play" it to show a video of the transmission paths and spread over time and what countries are most active transmitting it, by date. Here is just a snapshot of what this looks like:

[Linked Image]

And for those who want to more dashboards, here are two more.

This is the John Hopkins University COVID-19 dashboard:

[Linked Image]

This is another COVID-19 tracker dashboard that has better breakdowns and statistics by country:

[Linked Image]
Looks like nearly all western countries are now going to a confinement strategy. After Italy and then France, it is now also the case officially for UK, Germany, US and others. Thats a lot of people at home .....
Here's a nice piano practice/teaching/performing during the Coronavirus epidemic:
Originally Posted by toyboy
I don't know if people have discussed this yet, but I'm wondering how anyone is handling having a piano tuner come. And if they do, how they handle cleaning the piano afterwords.



Surely if they wash their hands properly before tuning the piano, there's no need to clean the piano afterwards?

Or - you could leave the piano for more than three days. The virus can survive for three days on hard surfaces.

Simply don't touch the piano for four days after he's come. As for if he coughs or sneezes or breathes in your face etc. - well we can't account for that.
A contrarian viewpoint of how serious the Coronavirus outbreak may be has been put forward by researchers at Oxford University.

In a nutshell the researchers propose that the virus may have already infected half the population of the U.K. If that is true it would be very good news since the mortality rate would be very low.

According to the mathematical modeling, the coronavirus arrived in mid-January at the latest, and spread undetected for over a month before the first cases were confirmed.

It should be pointed out that this study has not yet been peer reviewed or proven, but serological tests looking at antibodies to COVID-19 are being developed and should be available soon, so we will find out shortly if they are right. Since this is a novel virus that has never appeared in humans before the antibody test would be extremely specific and helpful in providing data in determining how far the disease has spread since January.

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/03/oxford-study-coronavirus-may-have-infected-half-of-u-k.html

If these researchers are correct the economies of the world may have been wrecked for relatively little benefit since only a tiny fraction of people infected by the virus require hospitalization according to the study, possibly as low as 1 in 1000.

Someone is going to have egg on their faces very soon - either these Oxford researchers, or the WHO and health officials of nearly every country on the planet.
Considering this is life or death, literally, of people, I would be more inclined to trust the Government's Chief Medical Officer, than an academic's mathematical modelling, especially one that lacks vital data to make it actually mean anything.
Here is another contrarian article from two professors of medicine at Stanford who believe that current estimates about the Covid-19 fatality rate may be too high by orders of magnitude:

“The epidemic started in China sometime in November or December. The first confirmed U.S. cases included a person who traveled from Wuhan on Jan. 15, and it is likely that the virus entered before that: Tens of thousands of people traveled from Wuhan to the U.S. in December. Existing evidence suggests that the virus is highly transmissible and that the number of infections doubles roughly every three days. An epidemic seed on Jan. 1 implies that by March 9 about six million people in the U.S. would have been infected. As of March 23, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, there were 499 Covid-19 deaths in the U.S. If our surmise of six million cases is accurate, that’s a mortality rate of 0.01%, assuming a two week lag between infection and death. This is one-tenth of the flu mortality rate of 0.1%. Such a low death rate would be cause for optimism.”

https://www.wsj.com/articles/is-the-coronavirus-as-deadly-as-they-say-11585088464
Originally Posted by JJHLH
Here is another contrarian article from two professors of medicine at Stanford who believe that current estimates about the Covid-19 fatality rate may be too high by orders of magnitude:

“The epidemic started in China sometime in November or December. The first confirmed U.S. cases included a person who traveled from Wuhan on Jan. 15, and it is likely that the virus entered before that: Tens of thousands of people traveled from Wuhan to the U.S. in December. Existing evidence suggests that the virus is highly transmissible and that the number of infections doubles roughly every three days. An epidemic seed on Jan. 1 implies that by March 9 about six million people in the U.S. would have been infected. As of March 23, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, there were 499 Covid-19 deaths in the U.S. If our surmise of six million cases is accurate, that’s a mortality rate of 0.01%, assuming a two week lag between infection and death. This is one-tenth of the flu mortality rate of 0.1%. Such a low death rate would be cause for optimism.”

https://www.wsj.com/articles/is-the-coronavirus-as-deadly-as-they-say-11585088464

The WSJ is not a peer-reviewed publication. Why not publish in a peer reviewed publication? Maybe because it is filled with guesswork and suppositions? I hope Stanford's Office of Academic Integrity gave/give each of them a spanking.
Staff problem:

[img]https://photos.google.com/u/0/photo/AF1QipN19wMyiXVWiD9U6IsDo0cqBVGT9Mf-o-twhLhD[/img]
Originally Posted by Tyrone Slothrop

The WSJ is not a peer-reviewed publication. Why not publish in a peer reviewed publication? Maybe because it is filled with guesswork and suppositions? I hope Stanford's Office of Academic Integrity gave/give each of them a spanking.


Actually it was in the opinion section.
Originally Posted by wszxbcl
Originally Posted by Tyrone Slothrop

The WSJ is not a peer-reviewed publication. Why not publish in a peer reviewed publication? Maybe because it is filled with guesswork and suppositions? I hope Stanford's Office of Academic Integrity gave/give each of them a spanking.


Actually it was in the opinion section.

Well, you know what they say - opinions are like _ _ _ _ _ _ _ s, everyone has one. wink
Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) – Statistics and Research

[Linked Image]
Given the very widely differing testing and reporting criteria from country to country these stats aren't all that meaningful.
Originally Posted by JJHLH


If these researchers are correct the economies of the world may have been wrecked for relatively little benefit since only a tiny fraction of people infected by the virus require hospitalization according to the study, possibly as low as 1 in 1000.

Someone is going to have egg on their faces very soon - either these Oxford researchers, or the WHO and health officials of nearly every country on the planet.


The reason people are confined is to reduce the number of people that need medical urgent care at any given point of time. In Italy the healthcare system is already overwhelmed which in practice means that a number of patients that could have been saved in normal time have not because of lack of ventilators. Doctors are now in a situation to make choices of who leaves and who dies. There are 800 people who died because of the virus in one day when the usual rate per day is 1500 all causes combined.

Same situation is now occuring in France in the East region and soon to occur in the Paris area. It will not take very long before a similar situation occurr also in UK and US.

So all in all maybe that the death rate is not extremely high, but the main point is that, is there anybody that would take the responsibility of not taking actions and accept that a number of people would die because of that. In peace time, non one can accept to condemn certain people to death when taking actions can save them, even if that means an impact on the economy.

Plus the confinement has some benefits, we use less oil, less pollution and less useless travel.
Originally Posted by Sidokar

Plus the confinement has some benefits, we use less oil, less pollution and less useless travel.

Yeah, we "save" the planet, while people loose their jobs and wages, businesses close and people suffer immensely from the psychological stress caused by the isolation.
Originally Posted by CyberGene
Originally Posted by Sidokar

Plus the confinement has some benefits, we use less oil, less pollution and less useless travel.

Yeah, we "save" the planet, while people loose their jobs and wages, businesses close and people suffer immensely from the psychological stress caused by the isolation.


A good point. One could wonder, how much oil, pollution, and travel will it take to rejuvenate the economy once this is over?
Originally Posted by Tyrone Slothrop

The WSJ is not a peer-reviewed publication. Why not publish in a peer reviewed publication? Maybe because it is filled with guesswork and suppositions? I hope Stanford's Office of Academic Integrity gave/give each of them a spanking.


That’s true. But the Imperial College Model, which predicted that 2.2 million deaths in the U.S. and half a million in the U.K. could happen without action is also not peer reviewed, yet governments around the world including the U.S. and U.K. are basing their plans on that model.

It does seem strange that this virus has been around for at least 3-4 months yet there are a total of just over 22,000 deaths worldwide.

The Stanford professors are certainly putting their reputations on the line. It will be fascinating to see who is correct.
Originally Posted by CyberGene
Originally Posted by Sidokar

Plus the confinement has some benefits, we use less oil, less pollution and less useless travel.

Yeah, we "save" the planet, while people loose their jobs and wages, businesses close and people suffer immensely from the psychological stress caused by the isolation.


The planet impact is just a side benefit. The main one is that we save more people's life. I dont want that one of my friend or family member be refused at the hospital because there is no more space, like it is now daily the case in Italy. And if i have to be confined for that, so be it. We will get over the economic impact, and several governments in Italy, France, Germany have already taken actions to reduce the financial impact on some professions. It is not perfect but better than nothing.

Plus whether we like it or not, thats how life will look like in not such a long time, when our energy stock will reduce. The time where we all travel as we like will end soon. This event should be a wake up call to start thinking about preparing the future for our children. The humanity thought that we were stronger than the nature, but a minuscule virus has demonstrated that we are in fact extremely vulnerable.
Originally Posted by Sidokar
Plus the confinement has some benefits, we use less oil, less pollution and less useless travel.


Confinement has wreaked havoc on the world’s economies. More than 3 million Americans lost their jobs last week, shattering the Great Recession peak of 665,000 in March 2009 and the all-time mark of 695,000 in October 1982.

The economic consequences of the confinement are likely to be long-lasting and calamitous. I see nothing positive about poverty and despair.
Originally Posted by JJHLH
Originally Posted by Sidokar
Plus the confinement has some benefits, we use less oil, less pollution and less useless travel.


Confinement has wreaked havoc on the world’s economies. More than 3 million Americans lost their jobs last week, shattering the Great Recession peak of 665,000 in March 2009 and the all-time mark of 695,000 in October 1982.

The economic consequences of the confinement are likely to be long-lasting and calamitous. I see nothing positive about poverty and despair.



Well there is nothing positive about having to deal with the virus. Eveybody would be better without, but since we have it, the question is simply a matter of which one is worst. I would no want my friends or family members to die because they cant get a place at the hospital. No one is saying that the consequences of the confinement are minor, but that there is no other reasonable choice at this point. That why even India made the decision to confine the country. I am not even speaking of many african countries that have nearly no organized medical system and would be condemned to see many of their people die because we spread the virus.
Originally Posted by Sidokar
Well there is nothing positive about having to deal with the virus. Eveybody would be better without, but since we have it, the question is simply a matter of which one is worst. I would no want my friends or family members to die because they cant get a place at the hospital. No one is saying that the consequences of the confinement are minor, but that there is no other reasonable choice at this point. That why even India made the decision to confine the country. I am not even speaking of many african countries that have nearly no organized medical system and would be condemned to see many of their people die because we spread the virus.


There is likely to be massive public health ramifications related to the economic downturn. It’s hard to know how many lives will be lost due to suicides, homelessness, increased drug use, domestic violence, and other mental health issues that accompany high unemployment. We may be trading one health crisis for another, and the latter could be worse.

Maybe a better alternative would be letting those at low risk for serious disease continue to work while advising higher-risk individuals to protect themselves through physical distancing and ramping up our hospital capacity as much as possible.
Originally Posted by JJHLH
Originally Posted by Sidokar
Well there is nothing positive about having to deal with the virus. Eveybody would be better without, but since we have it, the question is simply a matter of which one is worst. I would no want my friends or family members to die because they cant get a place at the hospital. No one is saying that the consequences of the confinement are minor, but that there is no other reasonable choice at this point. That why even India made the decision to confine the country. I am not even speaking of many african countries that have nearly no organized medical system and would be condemned to see many of their people die because we spread the virus.


There is likely to be massive public health ramifications related to the economic downturn. It’s hard to know how many lives will be lost due to suicides, homelessness, increased drug use, domestic violence, and other mental health issues that accompany high unemployment. We may be trading one health crisis for another, and the latter could be worse.

Maybe a better alternative would be letting those at low risk for serious disease continue to work while advising higher-risk individuals to protect themselves through physical distancing and ramping up our hospital capacity as much as possible.


The problem is those at low risk for serious disease can easily transmit to a more vulnerable person.
Originally Posted by dogperson

The problem is those at low risk for serious disease can easily transmit to a more vulnerable person.


Yes, which is why steps should be taken to isolate those who are most vulnerable, while at the same time letting those who are at low risk continue to keep the economy functioning so we don’t end up with another health crisis of our own making once the threat of the virus is reduced or eliminated.

Fully agree with JJHLH 👍🏻
Originally Posted by JJHLH
Originally Posted by dogperson

The problem is those at low risk for serious disease can easily transmit to a more vulnerable person.


Yes, which is why steps should be taken to isolate those who are most vulnerable, while at the same time letting those who are at low risk continue to keep the economy functioning so we don’t end up with another health crisis of our own making once the threat of the virus is reduced or eliminated.



And what happens when someone who is vulnerable, regardless of the reason, must go to the grocery store? There is potentially serious exposure to someone who is positive but asymptomatic. And btw, grocery delivery is expensive: something those with a fixed or low income would have difficulty affording.
Originally Posted by dogperson

And what happens when someone who is vulnerable, regardless of the reason, must go to the grocery store? There is potentially serious exposure to someone who is positive but asymptomatic. And btw, grocery delivery is expensive: something those with a fixed or low income would have difficulty affording.


Delivering groceries to the vulnerable would be much easier and less expensive than telling tens of millions of workers to stay home for weeks at a time. Orders of magnitude cheaper and easier compared to the $2 trillion stimulus package Congress is set to pass, plus the monetary stimulus from the Fed.
Originally Posted by JJHLH
Originally Posted by dogperson

And what happens when someone who is vulnerable, regardless of the reason, must go to the grocery store? There is potentially serious exposure to someone who is positive but asymptomatic. And btw, grocery delivery is expensive: something those with a fixed or low income would have difficulty affording.


Delivering groceries to the vulnerable would be much easier and less expensive than telling tens of millions of workers to stay home for weeks at a time. Orders of magnitude cheaper and easier compared to the $2 trillion stimulus package Congress is set to pass, plus the monetary stimulus from the Fed.


What would you propose for a family: healthy 40 yo husband. 40 yo wife with COPD and MS, 2 kids in school. How does the husband and kids keep from becoming infected and bringing it home?

Most health experts advise for all to stay home and stop the spread.



Not all families at around 40 have one parent with COPD and MS. That must be a very rare case. In that case maybe the entire family can be isolated. But why should this apply to everyone?
Originally Posted by CyberGene
Not all families at around 40 have one parent with COPD and MS. That must be a very rare case. In that case maybe the entire family can be isolated. But why should this apply to everyone?


Do you want more examples?
Working person with elderly parents or grandparents.

If everyone would truly avoid social contact for a few weeks... the problem is that is not consistent now
Originally Posted by JJHLH


There is likely to be massive public health ramifications related to the economic downturn. It’s hard to know how many lives will be lost due to suicides, homelessness, increased drug use, domestic violence, and other mental health issues that accompany high unemployment. We may be trading one health crisis for another, and the latter could be worse.

Maybe a better alternative would be letting those at low risk for serious disease continue to work while advising higher-risk individuals to protect themselves through physical distancing and ramping up our hospital capacity as much as possible.


The issue is that we are facing the virus with known death implications. There are always side consequences to any decision, but those are potentials and can not be estimated. On the other hand we know what will happend in terms of number of death if we do not contain the virus and that is the priority for now.

For one we do not know who is at risk. Now 50% of the new cases requiring medical assistance are people under 60, many of which are young and with no preexisting pathology. Then it is impossible in our free society to protect only a small subset of the population especially if we do not even know who they are. Anybody, you , me could get the virus and may need medical assistance. The other risk is that the virus could mutate and become more deadly than it already is. That is what happend with the spanish influenza which eventually killed 2 to 3% of the WW population, that is around 50 million people. With the current population that would be circa 150 to 200 million people. In Italy, I remind that the daily number of COVID death reached 800 which is 50% of the total daily average number of usual death in the country.

Given the speed at which the virus is spreading, if we open social contact, we will never have time to increase our hospital space. The medical personal is limited and some of them are starting to be sick as well. The healthcare system of Italy is saturated, France is getting there and so is the UK. Manufacturing ventilators and creating space takes time and by confining people we are trying to gain as much time as we can.The same is likely to happend in the US in a few days.

If I have to pay with loosing my job so that some people may be saved, I am fine with that. That is what social solidarity means. Maybe at the end of the crisis, we will conclude that confinement was not the best strategy but we make decisions at present time. And with what we know today, the only rational decision is to confine. China has demonstrated that taking very hard confinement actions early they get out of the crisis and are perfectly in the process of recovering. If Italy and other countries are facing the difficult situation they are in today is because the governments did not have the courage to take preventive actions sooner. Maybe that was wise as the population may not have accepted it, who know, so we are where we are.

Nobody knows what is the ultimate best trade-off (assuming we can define what are the criteria) as we do know have a cristal ball to anticipate the future. Most government are simply taking the basic actions to protect the health of the population in front of the most immediate threat.
I would suspect everyone will be exposed to it at some point. The only thing we can do now is minimize the amount getting sick and presenting to the hospitals at the same time.

Los Angeles county has a population of over 10 million. As of noon yesterday, there were 799 cases and 13 deaths. About 11% of the tests so far came back positive, based on what I heard in yesterday's live stream. So 90% are testing negative. Let's hope the numbers stay low.
While this is a highly interesting discussion, it verges on the political - so can I remind people that unless pianos are brought back into the discussion, the thread may be closed. Which would be a pity.
Random thoughts: (please look up my references before quoting figures; try to address the general thought in the last line of each paragraph). Thanks.

From Dr. Michael Osterholm, PhD epidemiologist at U. of Minnesota, website CIDRAP, podcast 2 days ago:

1) Testing. Korea has done well (maybe) because it could test, find cases, track them down, and specifically isolate carriers. We didn't do that, and we can't. Very abruptly we will run out of the reagents needed to do the COVID-19 testing. The general lab chemicals are in limited quantity worldwide (including Korea), and can't be produced fast enough, even if more end-line "testing kits" are produced. The most pedestrian example: the necessary test swab that looks like a very long Q tip is a plastic stick with a rayon tip: made in Lombardy, Italy!!. No, a sterile cotton-tip applicator will not work.

(A Prague news article says 80% of the test kits sent there from China give false results??). (Maybe the CDC decision to create their own test that is truly reliable was not just foolish government foot-dragging after all???).

2) Masks. According to Osterholm, Covid-19 transmission is much like influenza, which is so readily transmissible that isolation is relatively futile and only a vaccine (even a partially-effective vaccine) has been helpful to lower infection rates. Transmission of influenza is airborne (probably much more than from surfaces). N95 (tight-fitting, air-tight, cupped or face-enclosing) masks are needed. Regular light surgical masks are helpful to muzzle carriers from spreading coughs and droplets, but offer the uninfected less protection from infection than an N95 mask might. "Crowds" of large size are not specifically dangerous because person "x" does not breathe the air of the entire crowd. Small groups breathe the same air (my thought: elevator? stairwell? check-out line? bus? subway? taxi or uber? post office? doctor's or lab waiting room?). Osterholm says his conversations with 3M (Minnesota Mining and Manufacturing), the largest US manufacturer of masks, can make 30 million (? check figure) masks a month tops. One hospital in New York has used 2 million in a month (?????check figure). (News: a 3rd-year neurosurgery resident is being rationed one mask a day to make rounds, so she is sewing her own (non-N95) reuseable masks at home and lining them with a replaceable vacuum cleaner bag layer. JoAnn Fabric stores near Pittsburgh are offering free mask-making materials, drive-up). I can't say I would not recommend wearing an N95 mask wherever and whenever transmission is possible, or any mask if N95 not available, particularly if I were over the age of 60. If I younger and had to be near an older person for any reason, I would want to be wearing at least a surgical mask to prevent my being an asymptomatic infector. I hope this idea has progressed to nursing homes.

3) Ventilators. Ford can't make ventilators. Ford primarily assembles things that their just-in-time suppliers send them. (My thought: only a small portion of the healthcare team can operate a ventilator. Even if you put ventilators into all the non-ICU rooms that have oxygen, air, and suction fittings in the wall, who would operate them? We are close to respiratory personnel capacity BEFORE the pandemic. I last trained next to, but did not actually operate, a ventilator 40 years ago. I can't be "drafted" to do critical care.) That seems to be the choke-point. As we lose personnel (and materials) from infection, our capacity to treat any critical condition for everybody including the young (heart attack, serious infection) could revert to what we little we had in the 1930's. An economic Gotterdammerung may be "worth it" to prevent that.

4) Mortality. As you can see from my postscript, Beethoven on his death bed looked at the bright side. Some over-70's are offering that it might be better for them to accept a greater risk of infection and/or death in their age group, and to cease the shut-down in order to allow our children to "resume living" vs. economic ruin. Unfortunately, as the above post(s) mention, we don't know the real risk to the under 70 or 60 or 50 population. Most sources indicate the risk of death is orders of magnitude lower for each age decade, but we are rapidly losing the capacity to treat...everybody. Health care workers are most likely to be infected (particularly since adequate protective gear: ie a full hazmat suit) never existed for healthcare workers in the US, so we can't say we've run out. Gowns, N95 masks, face shields, hair nets, shoe covers: exist, (already gone many places) but probably are not sufficient to totally prevent infection. One doctor seriously proposes young EMS persons be deliberately infected so they can reenter the workforce as immune. Theoretically, masks can be cleaned (by spraying bleach, 3% peroxide, of perhaps dry heat), and apparently caregivers are already compelled to try it due to shortages. One doctor says he enters his home and separates from his family by living in the basement. My wife and I are both physicians, semi-retired but still with some patient contact. I can't face my 50ish nursing home director and say I'm quitting the rotation because I'm at greater risk. Fortunately my wife's outpatients may be switched to telemedicine. My son is out of a job that may never come back and has a new mortgage, a wife and two children under two. Although I've had plenty of time, I can't say I've thought this out. Available time to practice hasn't translated to practicing, or that matter for enjoying much of anything at all. My mother is 92, locked in a nursing home in Phoenix area, and although characteristically somewhat morose, she seems oddly upbeat now.
There is nothing positive about people dying because hospitals are overwhelmed by critically ill patients and have to triage older ( but not old) patients to not receive the care they need to survive. I am a retired registered nurse, I know what an intensive care unit and the doctors and nurses that work there is meant to look like... I have rarely seen anything more terrifying than the vision on TV of an Italian ICU completely overwhelmed by the task of trying to care for a completely ridiculous number of ventilated patients crammed into the space... medical staff looking completely exhausted and the stress etched on there faces. Italy is not a 3rd world country. Does anyone want their family member or friend relegated to this level of care, or no care... oh... the economy is more important?? The economy will eventually recover. The people remain dead.
Originally Posted by doctor S
One doctor says he enters his home and separates from his family by living in the basement.

My brother has taken a hotel room near the hospital he is now working in the emergency room of now so as not to infect his family since he says the PPE he is given is utter crap and he's already convinced he will get infected. Is this what we give our front line then? Utter crap and then expect them to put out fires working 36 hour shifts again, like in the 70's and 80's? I feel Government has failed us. I'm not even talking about US, but the world as a whole.
I should have referenced Dr. Osterholm's podcast from his CIDRAP website, and mention his "last line", which is (more or less), it's going to get worse, we will get through it, let's be the good souls we must be and help and be good to each other. Do take a listen (I think better than any source on the internet).

http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/covid-19/podcasts-webinars/episode-1-how-we-got-here
I believe I'm the only person here working on the front line - including seeing the resulting deaths - so even though I hadn't intended to post any more here, I'm going to add my own thoughts anyway:

1) Covid-19 also affects the young - very seriously (including death), including those with no known pre-existing pulmonary disease like cystic fibrosis. But even mild COPD greatly increases your risk. This really is a good time to pack up smoking, if you still smoke. The virus is going to be around until widespread vaccination becomes possible (maybe next year). And we haven't seen it all yet - there are still countries (especially in Africa) which have yet to be affected in a big way......and they are the ones with very poor medical care. South Africa is about to go into early lockdown from tonight: no deaths yet.

2) Those who are asking why no Western country went into full lockdown immediately like China when the implications of Covid-19 spread became clear only has to look around them. Even with the death toll mounting, there are people (not just the young) still thinking they are invincible and/or not caring about others (we saw the latter also when people began hoarding/stockpiling): despite the presence of large numbers of police, thousands of people flouted the law in Italy and Spain, and got fined. We in the West are just not accustomed to 'blind obedience', and too ready to test authority. (Somewhat like an adult piano student compared to a child student......)
And I have noticed that more and more people are going out unnecessarily as well as not keeping to the social distancing rule even within three days of the lockdown in the UK. (I had great difficulty keeping my distance from other customers at the supermarket earlier today, but at least, no-one was coughing. And the shelves for toilet paper and hand sanitisers remained empty: I managed to buy TP on Monday - just before I ran out completely - only because the supermarket opened half an hour earlier just for NHS workers). And despite exhortations to "Stay at home" by not just politicians and those in authority, but also doctors and nurses on the front line in the NHS.

3) Masks are necessary only for those working directly with the infected and are therefore 'hands on' (and liable to be coughed upon), otherwise a 2 metre distance from everyone is more than sufficient. Much more risky are your hands because you've been touching things - doorknobs, money, keyboards, plastic bags or cartons containing food in supermarkets etc - which may have infected droplets on them, from people who've touched the same in the past 72 hours, which is why you must keep your hands away from your face unless and until you've washed them thoroughly.
If someone at your home goes out (even for a short walk), on returning, he/she must head straight for the bathroom and wash his/her hands throughly before touching anything.

4) The personal protective equipment (PPE) that has to be worn by those on the front line is incredibly uncomfortable, hot and sweaty: imagine wearing a full plastic sheet (not Gore-Tex or any breathable garment) head to foot with no ventilation, and a very tight-fitting mask (nothing at all like as comfortable as a scuba-diving mask) to breathe through, for hours at a time. The viral load seems to be the reason why so many health care workers get sick: they are simply exposed to huge numbers of the virus compared to people who pick it up unknowingly in public areas.

5) Ventilators are going to be made quickly in large numbers (thousands) by the vacuum cleaner manufacturer Dyson in the UK - apparently a bare-bones new design with absolutely no frills. It's going to be easier to learn to operate than existing ones, and the prototype is already being tested now. If it works, that's all we want - especially so in times of dire need, where the KISS principle is paramount.

6) A new rapid antigen test (for current infection) is being developed that will give an accurate result within two hours.

7) A fingerprick test for antibodies to the virus (for previous infection) could be the answer to the epidemiology problem, as well as allowing people to return to work more safely because they are immune. China has mass-produced it, but though the UK has bought over a million of the tests, it will not be released to the public until it has passed the tests for accuracy.

8) Finally - to protect yourself and others: stay at home, unless you have good reason to go out, in which case practice social distancing and wash your hands as soon as you return home. And keep your hands away from your face.
thumb
Bennevis, I hope you get through this with your health and humor intact, and that you are able to continue to play, to share your playing, and to share your suggestions of new music to play. You have pointed me to several composers and pieces I love to play ON MY PIANO (just trying to keep this PIANO WORLD thread relevant to PIANOS!).

I've been checking in with an acquaintance who is a nurse; I only know him because we take lessons from the same teacher, and we both love Piazzolla. I mostly manage not to get scared about where this is all going, but I think all of us may lose some dear and interesting people to this virus in the next 12-18 months. Please let us be unfailingly kind to one another here.

Off to practice "Farewell to Stromness," for which I thank you, Bennevis.
Bennevis, I’m clapping for you and your colleagues!
Thanks Qwerty53 and WeakLeftHand!

It was indeed very uplifting for all of us who work in the NHS when the whole nation (including the PM, who's now also been infected with Covid-19) showed their appreciation with their public applause last night, following in the footsteps of the Italians and Spanish who have been doing it for their own health workers. That's a lot more applause than I ever got for my recitals wink .

I must admit there have been some moments in the past week when this piece seemed most appropriate:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dF-dRyoEe0E

....but as always, Wolfie came to the rescue with his optimism in the face of adversity:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zr59kJXVKQM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U37SB4i54JU

I think I'll be playing a lot more Mozart in the coming weeks: he always seems to strike the right chord at the right time.....
For those who might be interested by the very last survey of prof. Raoult , today
( Marseille / France)

/https://www.mediterranee-infection.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/COVID-IHU-2-1.pdf

"In conclusion, we confirm the efficacy of hydroxychloroquine associated with azithromycin in the treatment of COVID-19 and its potential effectiveness in the early impairment of
contagiousness. Given the urgent therapeutic need to manage this disease with effective and safe drugs and given the negligible cost of both hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin, we believe that other teams should urgently evaluate this therapeutic strategy both to avoid the spread of the disease and to treat patients before severe irreversible respiratory complications take hold."
Originally Posted by rolex67
For those who might be interested by the very last survey of prof. Raoult , today
( Marseille / France)

/https://www.mediterranee-infection.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/COVID-IHU-2-1.pdf

"In conclusion, we confirm the efficacy of hydroxychloroquine associated with azithromycin in the treatment of COVID-19 and its potential effectiveness in the early impairment of
contagiousness. Given the urgent therapeutic need to manage this disease with effective and safe drugs and given the negligible cost of both hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin, we believe that other teams should urgently evaluate this therapeutic strategy both to avoid the spread of the disease and to treat patients before severe irreversible respiratory complications take hold."


Yes, the results are encouraging but this study was in 24 patients so a larger sample size is needed before a conclusion can be reached regarding efficacy. Safety will also be evaluated as hydrocloroquine and azithromycin both prolong one of the cardiac intervals (QTc).

This is not to diminish the hopefulness we all have; we all are anxiously awaiting great results that we can cheer from the rooftops. Just remember, other drugs are being tested as well in case this one ends up being not as promising as it looks. There is a huge international effort, of which we can all be proud.
Originally Posted by dogperson
Originally Posted by rolex67
For those who might be interested by the very last survey of prof. Raoult , today
( Marseille / France)

/https://www.mediterranee-infection.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/COVID-IHU-2-1.pdf

"In conclusion, we confirm the efficacy of hydroxychloroquine associated with azithromycin in the treatment of COVID-19 and its potential effectiveness in the early impairment of
contagiousness. Given the urgent therapeutic need to manage this disease with effective and safe drugs and given the negligible cost of both hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin, we believe that other teams should urgently evaluate this therapeutic strategy both to avoid the spread of the disease and to treat patients before severe irreversible respiratory complications take hold."


Yes, the results are encouraging but this study was in 24 patients so a larger sample size is needed before a conclusion can be reached regarding efficacy. Safety will also be evaluated as hydrocloroquine and azithromycin both prolong one of the cardiac intervals (QTc).

This is not to diminish the hopefulness we all have; we all are anxiously awaiting great results that we can cheer from the rooftops. Just remember, other drugs are being tested as well in case this one ends up being not as promising as it looks. There is a huge international effort, of which we can all be proud.


It's not just that it was a small trial. It was also open-label (which can lead to bias). The most troubling aspect, though, was that six patients dropped out of the treatment group and none out of the control group. Patients that are lost to the study should be counted as failures; not doing so is a no-no. Larger, better designed trials are needed and are no doubt underway.

Quote
In summary, 26 patients were enrolled in the treatment group, with 16 controls. Six patients dropped out of the treatment group: 3 went to the ICU, one dropped out due to nausea, one left the hospital (apparently recovered?) and one died. No one left the control group. There were 15 male and 21 female patients. 6 of them were asymptomatic, 22 had upper respiratory symptoms, and 8 had lower respiratory tract symptoms (all of those had confirmed pneumonia by imaging).
Coronavirus: Some Clinical Trial Data
Originally Posted by bennevis
It was indeed very uplifting for all of us who work in the NHS when the whole nation (including the PM, who's now also been infected with Covid-19) showed their appreciation with their public applause last night, following in the footsteps of the Italians and Spanish who have been doing it for their own health workers. That's a lot more applause than I ever got for my recitals wink ..

A dozen of my neighbors and I were out in the street at 8 p.m. last night “making a joyful noise” in honor of healthcare workers. Tonight we will go to the other side of our building and do the same.

Bennevis, before I go listen to whatever you linked, I’ll suggest perhaps a dose of Beethoven. Why, you ask? Because:

As the Marcia Funebre followed the battle, the scherzo follows as the end of burial and mourning: the return to life and to joy. That journey, from suffering to joy, is a story Beethoven enacted over and over in his music, and in the whole of his life.

… Again and again in his music he returned to an ending in joy.


Yesterday while listening to Beethoven’s Opus 109 I was moved to track down that passage I recalled from Jan Swafford’s biography of LvB.
Just checking in, how is everyone doing? There are so many regulars absent from posts lately, I'm kind of worried about them. I've sent a few private messages out and hope I hear from them. Some I've found on this thread, thank goodness!

I'm ok. Hubby is out of a job now, a situation we've dealt with too many times in this past year. We just can't seem to find our feet after he was laid off last June. Stability is elusive. Otherwise we're fine, staying home but we have a big yard, so we're outside when the weather is nice. I've been playing a lot, but sometimes the news is so overwhelming that I just don't have the heart to play. I thank god for my teachers, who, even at a distance are so tremendously helpful and uplifting.

I look back fondly to just a few weeks ago, before things really got bad. I took a drive to Rochester to buy a used Jansen bench in Rochester, about an hour and 20 min. away. While there, I visited my friend's piano shop, and I remember how normal everything was. I wasn't afraid, it was a really nice short trip, and I was so happy to have acquired this amazing bench. How things have changed.

I hope you're all OK and safe and healthy. I hope I hear from my missing piano friends here. I hope we all get through this, and that the worst of it is soon over.

Take care, my dear piano family. ❤️❤️❤️
I'm kind of maybe naively hoping that when this situation clears up a bit, people might have a regained appreciation for socialising and community, and perhaps step away from spending their whole day tapping in hysterical neurotic balderdash in to Twitter. It's not even Facebook any more. Seems to me that Twitter is where you find the hysteria.

I much prefer forums like this. Although when I joined this forum I was hoping to find a nice peaceful place, but amusingly enough, there are loads of arguments here. It's just that they're about really funny things, like should I play it with the fifth finger or the fourth finger and so on.

Good luck, ebonykawai, I hope things pick up for you after this. Enjoy the yard. It's at times like this that it comes into its own.

I guess Skype will start to get very popular for lessons now.
Dogperson and stubbie : NO!!!

As I said, it’s the very last survey, from YESTERDAY...

Around 80 persons are involved in this test, now....

Please, read the survey before commenting..... it’s always better... :-)

And have a look on their website to have the original ......

Hope this will work on a large scale.... we should know very quickly, as a lot of doctors use
His method now to cure people in hospitals ( at least in France).

Because for the time being, we have nothing more....
Originally Posted by bennevis
I believe I'm the only person here working on the front line -

I am sure many of us are...I am suddenly working day and night to manage the massive unemployment crisis caused by the prevention actions and finding more health care workers. Health care professionals are not the only ones who are getting overwhelmed by this...and soon it will be the social sercives as well, since the isolation will aggravate existing problems and create new ones.

In just a few weeks we have gone from pretty good prospects to a recession that will last for some time. No-one knows how long and how bad it will get. In a way the society has turned upside down almost overnight. Civil rights are being restricted in a way that hasn't happened after the wars...So it's bad, but the politicians really do not have a choice. Those who suddenly have a lot of time in their hands can keep complaining in social media, but those who are in charge have to make decisions with little information and they will be responsible afterwards, it's really no fun. The world has become so complex that whatever you do will have unpredicted consequences. Personally I think global economics were already broken in many ways before this, so we will just have to see if some things will get more reasonable afterwards. I am sceptic though...
All this cause some Chinese guy just had to eat a bat " mm delicious ill think Ill eat this bat"
Originally Posted by KlinkKlonk
All this cause some Chinese guy just had to eat a bat " mm delicious ill think Ill eat this bat"


That transmission directly by eating a bat is no longer presumed from research— and more genetic code testing is being done. It may have been, but still not certain, from a snake eating a bat and then a person eating the snake.

Pictures of a woman eating bat soup are confirmed as from 2016 and from Palau, not from a market in China.
Originally Posted by rolex67
Dogperson and stubbie : NO!!!

As I said, it’s the very last survey, from YESTERDAY...

Around 80 persons are involved in this test, now....

Please, read the survey before commenting..... it’s always better... :-)

And have a look on their website to have the original ......

Hope this will work on a large scale.... we should know very quickly, as a lot of doctors use
His method now to cure people in hospitals ( at least in France).

Because for the time being, we have nothing more....
Copying and pasting your link leads me to a home improvement site.
This newer paper, which is a draft, does have more patients (some of which are from the first study), but, for one thing, no mention of a control group. Untreated people do recover, so the determination of whether or not a treatment helps, or not, should be in comparison to a similar, but untreated group. They might have a control group, but I didn't see it in the draft. Let's hope additional information is forthcoming.
Ultimately, it may be less interesting which country started it than which countr(ies) lost control of it.

[Linked Image]
Stubbie, you are right, it’s for the time being a draft, and it’s clearly mentioned if you go directly to the website of this hospital.
It says that, due to this unstoppable contamination, before realizing a complete study, they wanted to show up that first draft, at least to inform all the medical community about their new results.
In that hurry, it’s not time for them to stick to a real « test program »...
They only have 80 beds.... no way to leave half of the patients with a placebo ( in this kind of «  war »....)
We will know very soon if this strategy works or not....
For the moment,´it seems yes.
But I agree, it’s not the way normal tests are conducted.
Do we have time?
Originally Posted by rolex67
Stubbie, you are right, it’s for the time being a draft, and it’s clearly mentioned if you go directly to the website of this hospital.
It says that, due to this unstoppable contamination, before realizing a complete study, they wanted to show up that first draft, at least to inform all the medical community about their new results.
In that hurry, it’s not time for them to stick to a real « test program »...
They only have 80 beds.... no way to leave half of the patients with a placebo ( in this kind of «  war »....)
We will know very soon if this strategy works or not....
For the moment,´it seems yes.
But I agree, it’s not the way normal tests are conducted.
Do we have time?

The issue is that without a control and without adequate trial standards, you will never know if it really works. In the meantime, millions of people will get treated with the drugs and some of them will suffer harm from those drugs, or they could have been treated by other means. I hope and pray that it works We certainly need some help. Okay, a lot of help.

(P.S. I'm not going to post again on the trials, as in my opinion this is not the place for that kind of discussion.)
Originally Posted by Tyrone Slothrop
Ultimately, it may be less interesting which country started it than which countr(ies) lost control of it.

[Linked Image]


Lost control or never had control to begin with, I'd say. The US is a wreck. It's good that we'll be getting some cash via a stimulus check and unemployment, but who knows when that will actually happen. It's impossible to reach anyone by phone. We are also without health insurance now that my hubby is out of work. Not so great, being in the middle of a pandemic that no one here can seem to stanch. At this point, I'm perfectly happy to be isolated, just so I don't punch anyone out of frustration.
Originally Posted by ebonykawai
Originally Posted by Tyrone Slothrop
Ultimately, it may be less interesting which country started it than which countr(ies) lost control of it.

[Linked Image]


Lost control or never had control to begin with, I'd say. The US is a wreck. It's good that we'll be getting some cash via a stimulus check and unemployment, but who knows when that will actually happen. It's impossible to reach anyone by phone. We are also without health insurance now that my hubby is out of work. Not so great, being in the middle of a pandemic that no one here can seem to stanch. At this point, I'm perfectly happy to be isolated, just so I don't punch anyone out of frustration.

Aye, Lisa.

BTW, are you taking a brief respite from this all and watching the World Piano Day livestream?
Here in California we are under a "shelter in place" mandate and all of our religious services have been temporarily suspended. Therefore, we are providing worship services for our church online. Here is my first attempt at online worship. I was able to edit out a lot of the wind noise (except for a couple of spots), but I will have to work on improving my mic.



God Bless,
David
A few weeks ago the discussion started about music practice. Now people are preoccupied with the spread of the virus and how it is affecting their daily lives.

This morning I went out to a grocery store with 2 people. We left before 8am with no problem getting in. By 9am people started lining-up at the door. Supermarkets & pharmacies are considered essential services but put a limit on the number of people in the store so the rest have to wait outside. Every store in town would close 2h earlier. And anybody who recently returned to the city are asked not to visit a store until their 2 weeks quarantine is over.

So far we are not at the peak of the infection. With new numbers coming in from different places all we can do is to put more places on lockdown.
Not unexpected, but Italy is starting to experience social breakdown. Italy may only be the first.
Originally Posted by Tyrone Slothrop
Not unexpected, but Italy is starting to experience social breakdown. Italy may only be the first.


That’s been my fear all along, that the economic and social fallout will be more deadly than the virus.
Originally Posted by JJHLH

That’s been my fear all along, that the economic and social fallout will be more deadly than the virus.


My worry too. It's an extremely complicated case of cause and effect.

It's important to achieve the right balance at the moment, and I think a lot of places are struggling to do that. Having a lockdown which is too weak will be ineffective, yet having a lockdown that is too strong, or goes on too long, will cause a whole lot of other problems, some of them predictable and some of them not. Some of them potentially more harmful than the virus itself.

It's a nasty moral dilemma.
Originally Posted by Zaphod
My worry too. It's an extremely complicated case of cause and effect.

It's important to achieve the right balance at the moment, and I think a lot of places are struggling to do that. Having a lockdown which is too weak will be ineffective, yet having a lockdown that is too strong, or goes on too long, will cause a whole lot of other problems, some of them predictable and some of them not. Some of them potentially more harmful than the virus itself.

It's a nasty moral dilemma.


+1

What we need to find out, urgently, is the percentage of the population that has been infected but recovered. Serologic antibody tests should answer that question and hopefully they will be available soon. It’s the key to the whole crisis and will determine what we do going forward. I’m praying the Oxford model is correct
Originally Posted by JJHLH

What we need to find out, urgently, is the percentage of the population that has been infected but recovered. Serologic antibody tests should answer that question and hopefully they will be available soon. It’s the key to the whole crisis and will determine what we do going forward. I’m praying the Oxford model is correct


I agree fully, and hope that they apply some logic to the situation, but I remain skeptical. I queued outside the supermarket yesterday for half an hour to get in, and people were standing about 4 metres away from each other outside. And then what do they do when they get inside? Stand 1 or 2 metres away from each other and touch all the same stuff.

One interesting side effect that I gather is, apart from anything else, at least partly fuelled by Twitter alongside other social media, is that people are starting to grass other people up. "Oooh if you look at this drone photo I took earlier, you can plainly see that these two people are only 1 metre 99cm apart, and have obviously only washed their hands 20 times on the last three minutes instead of 25 times. How irresponsible.". Often followed by "I've reported them". And then a quick check to see how many virtual social credit points one earned by doing this. Actually I'm exaggerating but you catch my drift. Everyone's looking at everyone else through the curtains, so to speak.

This is socially catastrophic if it takes hold. It is, itself, like a virus. Well I guess that stands to reason when you think about things going "viral".
Some places like Taiwan that has very few cases every citizen is tracked through their cellphones. If they show symptoms they are required to stay home or pay a fine. For some people this may be going a bit extreme.

People here still gather in public parks doing their daily exercises including walking their dogs & cycling.
A good explanation of the disastrous response of the UK government to this epidemic, so far, from a critical care doctor:


"I'll tell you what happened in the UK.

Over the past decade, eminent figures in public health developed complex models that would help inform the UK response to a pandemic. The response plan would allow slow spread through a population and a number of deaths that would be deemed acceptable in relation to low economic impact. Timing of population measures such as social distancing would be taken, not early, but at a times deemed to have maximal psychological impact. Measures would be taken that could protect the most vulnerable, and most of the people who got the virus would hopefully survive. Herd immunity would beneficially emerge at the end of this, and restrictions could relax. This was a ground-breaking approach compared to suppressing epidemics. It was an approach that could revolutionise the way we handled epidemics. Complex modelling is a new science, and this was cutting edge.

But a model is only ever as good as the assumptions you build it upon. The UK plan was based on models with an assumption that any new pandemic would be like an old one, like flu. And it also carried a huge flaw - there was no accounting for the highly significant variables of ventilators and critical care beds that are key to maintaining higher survival numbers (https://www.newstatesman.com/politi...w-no-planning-ventilators-event-pandemic).

So, come 2020 and COVID-19 causes disaster in China, Iran and Italy. Epidemiologists and doctors from around the world observe, and learn valuable lessons:

1. the virus is insidious with a long incubation, any population actions you take will only have an effect weeks later

2. the virus spreads remarkably quickly and effectively

3. the virus causes an unusually large proportion of patients to require invasive ventilatory support

4. early large scale testing, and social distancing measures, are effective at stopping exponential growth

5. stopping exponential growth is VITAL to preventing your critical care systems from being overwhelmed.

6. Everyone in the world could see these things. But despite this, very few governments chose to act.

The UK did the opposite of acting. In an act of what I see as sheer arrogance, they chose to do nothing, per the early stages of their disaster plan. There was some initial contact tracing, but this stopped when it was clear that there was significant community spread and exponential growth. And after this? They did not ramp up testing capabilities. They did not encourage social distancing. They did not boost PPE supply, or plan for surge capacity. They ignored advice from the WHO, public health experts in other country; epidemiologists, scientists and doctors in their own. I can tell you with certainty now that they did not even collect regular statistics for how many COVID patients were being admitted to critical care in the UK. They did nothing.

What were they thinking? Maybe that what had happened in China, and was happening in Italy, couldn't possibly happen in the UK, right? It was impossible. The persisted with the original plan with no modification.

Well COVID-19 is not flu. That is perfectly clear. And it was clear that the UK numbers were following, exponentially, the same trend as Italy. But still the government and their advisers stuck to their guns and put out reassuring messages. I would ask here - why did they still think we would be different?

Finally, a team at Imperial informing the government's response put up-to-date COVID-19 data into the historical models that the UK plan was based on (https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/im...ege-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf), and predicted in a best case scenario 250,000 deaths and excess of 8x surge capacity of UK intensive cares. They concluded that our approach was wrong, and that "Epidemic suppression is the only viable strategy at the current time".

Where are we now?

The government has instituted a number of measures that they previously called "unscientific", but has not mandated them.

We are far, far into the exponential curve both in deaths and critical care numbers, and there is at least two weeks more growth until any of the half-hearted measures taken might kick in.

We do not have sufficient testing capability for even hospital patients, who sometimes wait days for a test result. There are not enough tests for anyone in the community, or any healthcare workers who might have symptoms.

Hospitals are scrambling to produce surge capacity, and several smaller hospitals in London are now overwhelmed with COVID and out of ventilators.

There is clearly not enough PPE in the country and we are rushing to secure supplies.

Don't believe the UK government propaganda when they say that they are only advancing along the same plan at a faster pace. It is total bollocks. Their plan was wrong, kaput, totally broken. They chose to perform an experiment on an entire population, a trial of 'new epidemic mitigation strategy in UK' vs 'epidemic suppression in rest of the world'. They didn't listen to other experts from all over the world, and in this arrogance they did not observe the lessons or data that was there, plain to see. They have backtracked completely and are now doing what most world public health experts and what the WHO asked them to do in the first place. They've wasted a month, at least.

Will they suffer? heck no. It will be the vulnerable in the population, the unlucky young, and the medical staff at the front line."


https://www.reddit.com/r/Coronaviru...are_doctor_working_in_a_uk_high/fla4cux/
Originally Posted by thepianoplayer416
Some places like Taiwan that has very few cases every citizen is tracked through their cellphones. If they show symptoms they are required to stay home or pay a fine. For some people this may be going a bit extreme.

People here still gather in public parks doing their daily exercises including walking their dogs & cycling.


Well yeah... !!! If they SHOW SYMPTOMS, what are they doing running around?! Not extreme at all to round up people with symptoms and test them, and if positive, then treat, confine, not just fine.

What the island of Taiwan did really well was screen incoming passengers from flights, and now I believe has completely shut down its borders. I landed in the USA and no one screened me. I could have had a fever, I could have been in Italy. But no one at the airport even asked me.
It’s pretty clear to me the wealthier Asian countries have got it pretty much under control and the rest of the world, well, I’m sure you’ve seen the news. Although some countries are doing better than others.

I’d be very interested when, after this is all behind us, someone writes a book comparing how different countries handled it and the results.

Originally Posted by wszxbcl
Originally Posted by thepianoplayer416
Some places like Taiwan that has very few cases every citizen is tracked through their cellphones. If they show symptoms they are required to stay home or pay a fine. For some people this may be going a bit extreme.

People here still gather in public parks doing their daily exercises including walking their dogs & cycling.


Well yeah... !!! If they SHOW SYMPTOMS, what are they doing running around?! Not extreme at all to round up people with symptoms and test them, and if positive, then treat, confine, not just fine.

What the island of Taiwan did really well was screen incoming passengers from flights, and now I believe has completely shut down its borders. I landed in the USA and no one screened me. I could have had a fever, I could have been in Italy. But no one at the airport even asked me.

Extreme? In the West we can't even get a proper quarantine going. For example, in the US there was some talk of a quarantine of 3 hard hit states, but then one of the Governors (New York) started to talk about how it was illegal and unconstitutional.

We manage to get in our own way on with respect to this disease. And meanwhile COVID-19 cares nothing for our laws.
Originally Posted by Tyrone Slothrop
Ultimately, it may be less interesting which country started it than which countr(ies) lost control of it.
That is, if you believe the numbers being put out by the Chinese government. Color me skeptical. I see no reason to believe them, considering the documented official cover-up that shrouded the beginning of this whole thing.

Pre-emptive note: if that statement is "too political", then so is 3/4 of this thread.
^ AND you had the WHO assuring us from the outset that there was no cause for alarm, and the general feeling that travel restrictions and such were an overreaction at best and xenophobic at worst. So yeah, the unpreparedness was to be expected.
Originally Posted by rmns2bseen
Originally Posted by Tyrone Slothrop
Ultimately, it may be less interesting which country started it than which countr(ies) lost control of it.
That is, if you believe the numbers being put out by the Chinese government. Color me skeptical. I see no reason to believe them, considering the documented official cover-up that shrouded the beginning of this whole thing.

As pointed out in this thread, there are many other datapoints other than what the Chinese have said. There are western residents in these cities that report, sometimes on Youtube what is happening. The Chinese closed down 20 emergency hospitals in the affected area for 20,000 hospital beds taken out of circulation. Either they are complete idiots, or they do at least "think" they have it under control, regardless of what comes out of their propaganda machine. Finally, South Korea, which is a democracy clearly has it under control now, and if they can, than China is 10x as authoritarian, why couldn't China? This is too big now. China can cover it up in small ways but not in big ways. For example, we know Iran is covering up the scale of their outbreak because we can see the vast fields where the dead are being buried from satellites. No such things reported for China. It's hard to cover up big things in this modern age.

As for blaming China for lying at the outset and making it harder on other countries to prepare, again I point to South Korea which was also lied to by China from the outset. Yet South Korea was able to manage, mainly because they got very serious about testing from the get-go, something which we don't seem to be able to do in the West. My wife's friend who is a doctor in the Netherlands with dying patient who are elderly was told not to order COVID-19 tests for his patients since there aren't enough. His patients were viable, I guess. This would never have flown in South Korea. They are testing to death.
Originally Posted by Tyrone Slothrop
Originally Posted by rmns2bseen
[quote=Tyrone Slothrop]Ultimately, it may be less interesting which country started it than which countr(ies) lost control of it.
That is, if you believe the numbers being put out by the Chinese government. Color me skeptical. I see no reason to believe them, considering the documented official cover-up that shrou
As pointed out in this thread, there are many other datapoints other than what the Chinese have said. There are western residents in these cities that report, sometimes on Youtube what is happening. The Chinese closed down 20 emergency hospitals in the affected area for 20,000 hospital beds taken out of circulation. Either they are complete idiots, or they do at least "think" they have it under control,
Or they want to give the impression that they have it under control, along with the impression that they are being magnanimous saviors in sending/selling a lot of worthless test kits and masks to various countries.

Quote
As for blaming China for lying at the outset and making it harder on other countries to prepare, again I point to South Korea which was also lied to by China from the outset. Yet South Korea was able to manage, mainly because they got very serious about testing from the get-go, something which we don't seem to be able to do in the West. My wife's friend who is a doctor in the Netherlands with dying patient who are elderly was told not to order COVID-19 tests for his patients since there aren't enough. His patients were viable, I guess. This would never have flown in South Korea. They are testing to death.
I would say Korea probably put public safety ahead of identity politics. Good for them. But that's probably easier to do and gets much less backlash when you're more of a "mono-ethnic" state. Apples and oranges, in other words. We were more concerned for a long time about not putting the words "Chinese" and "virus" in any close proximity, or offending by restricting travel.

I'll take the messy multi-ethnic state, to be honest. And after all, to this point this doesn't really look like Black Death II, hysteria notwithstanding.
Mod note:

I'm fine with this topic staying open as long as the discussion is productive and doesn't devolve into racist attacks. Please be respectful to one another and stay on topic. Taking about it is a good coping mechanism.

That being said, I don't feel that any country aside from Italy is being honest with their numbers, either because of the lack of testing or to control the narrative. We have to accept that is everywhere at this point and that preventative measures are best to control the spread. Where I live in Texas, we went from one documented case to nearly thirty in a week alone.

Regarding China, I teach a few students over WeChat who have been literally locked in their homes for over two months, and most of them don't believe the numbers or that there are no new cases in a country with over a billion people. It's interesting to hear the perspective of those who have been living so long with the conditions that now must of us are now only starting to experience.
Originally Posted by Brendan
That being said, I don't feel that any country aside from Italy is being honest with their numbers, either because of the lack of testing or to control the narrative. We have to accept that is everywhere at this point and that preventative measures are best to control the spread. Where I live in Texas, we went from one documented case to nearly thirty in a week alone.
What really puzzles me is how and why things got so bad so quickly in Italy. And I don't want to seem callous about it; I or my loved ones could fall victim to it, I don't know. My heart goes out to those who are dealing with it.
Originally Posted by rmns2bseen
Originally Posted by Brendan
That being said, I don't feel that any country aside from Italy is being honest with their numbers, either because of the lack of testing or to control the narrative. We have to accept that is everywhere at this point and that preventative measures are best to control the spread. Where I live in Texas, we went from one documented case to nearly thirty in a week alone.
What really puzzles me is how and why things got so bad so quickly in Italy. And I don't want to seem callous about it; I or my loved ones could fall victim to it, I don't know. My heart goes out to those who are dealing with it.

I’ve read an interesting article in a Bulgarian newspaper (translated from a Norwegian article) giving a probable explanation being resistant to antibiotics bacteria taking over many Italians and being prevalent in Italian hospitals with root causes being Italians are on average prescribed antibiotics at least twice as much as other European states. As a comparison a number was given that 11000 people in Italy die annually from bacteria resistant to antibiotics compared to 69 in Norway. Furthermore, Lombardy is famous for livestock farms and forages that are full of antibiotics. I’ll try to find the Finnish article.
Found it, it’s Norway, not Finland, sorry. Hope it’s not fake news:
https://www.aftenposten.no/meninger...saa-mange-liv-i-italia-erik-martiniussen

Here’s a machine translation:
Quote
That's why the corona virus takes so many lives in Italy | Erik Martiniussen

Erik Martiniussen Journalist and author of the book The War on the Bacteria
March 24, 2020 11:11 AM

6,000 people have died of coronary infection in Italy in just two months. The high death rate has caused concern for a whole world, not least here at home when NRK used them in a debate program to create a worst-case scenario for Norway.

Many have pointed out that Italy has a high age average and that this may be one of the causes of the high death rates. But that is far from the whole explanation.

In addition to the epidemic surprisingly coming to the authorities, Italy's underlying antibiotic crisis has probably worsened the situation dramatically. A deadly mix of resistant bacteria and coronavirus may be the cause of high death rates in Italy.

The reason is that many people who are now infected with corona (sars-cov-2) in Italy probably do not die from the virus itself, but rather from secondary bacterial infections caused by resistant microbes. How can this be related?


Chronicle writer Erik Martiniussen, a regular journalist in the Technical Weekly magazine, recently published the book "The war on the bacteria" (Forlaget Press 2020).
The bacteria attack

It is a known case that respiratory infections of viruses generally weaken the immune system, allowing bacteria to attack more easily. This is also common for viruses that cause flu or colds. Between 10 and 30 per cent of patients admitted to hospitals with a virus-based respiratory infection subsequently receive a secondary bacterial infection, figures from the UK Antibiotic Center show.

However, Covid-19 differs from regular seasonal flu in that several of the patients develop pneumonia. Serious cases are treated with artificial oxygen supply to help the patient's immune system fight back the virus.

In order to ensure that such intensive patients do not receive a secondary bacterial infection, antibiotics are often administered as part of the treatment. Antibiotics have no known effect on the coronavirus sars-cov-2, but will eliminate any bacteria that see their incision to attack while the patient is in the respirator.

But how common is this for sars-cov-2?

Half died

In a study published in acclaimed The Lancet this month, researchers found that over half of the patients who died from the Wuhan virus in China had sustained a secondary bacterial infection before they died.

The study suggests that secondary bacterial infections play a crucial role in covid-19 mortality, although more documentation is needed.


Healthcare staff at a hospital in Brescia, northern Italy, work around the clock to treat patients affected by the coronavirus.
Claudio Furlan, AP
The reason is that a bacterial infection can attack important stem cells in the airways that are necessary for the lung tissue to regenerate.

Even with aggressive, virus-based pneumonia, it is usually possible to recover, often with the help of oxygen supply, as long as stem cells in the lungs can repair the damage again. But if the stem cells die, you are done.

Fortunately, a simple antibiotic regimen will hold back the bacteria. Then the immune system can concentrate on fighting the viral infection and hopefully the patient will recover.

In Norway, it will be reasonably easy to treat a secondary bacterial lung infection with antibiotics, which could have a positive effect on the death rate of corona. This is not the case in Italy.

Resistant bacteria

Italy is the country in Europe where most people die from resistant bacteria. Each year, nearly 11,000 patients die in Italy from resistant microbes. Corresponding figures for Norway are 69.

The latest data from the European Disease Control Agency (ECDC) shows that 30 percent of all bacterial infections in Italy caused by E.coli were resistant to third-generation cephalosporins, a very important antibiotic.

Corresponding figures for klebsiella infections showed that 26.8 percent of the bacteria were resistant to carbapenem, a so-called cystic antibiotic. According to the ECDC, several resistant bacteria are now endemic in Italian hospitals, which means they have more or less colonized the hospitals permanently.

If a coronary patient is first infected by a bacterium at an Italian hospital, it is therefore very likely that the bacterium is resistant and cannot be treated.

Wasting antibiotics

The prevalence of resistant bacteria is directly linked to high consumption of antibiotics. In primary medicine, the Italians distribute almost twice as much antibiotics as we do in Norway.

Even worse, it is in meat production: Tons of our most important medicines go straight into a swelling pig production in the country that produces 10 million pigs a year.


Italy produces 10 million pigs a year. Here the hams are hanging in a row.
Yara Nardi, Reuters
The center for industrialized Italian grass production is located in the Lombardy region, which is now also experiencing the highest death rates associated with covid-19. Lombardy had registered 3456 deaths on Sunday. This means that Lombardia alone now has more deaths than China overall.

It remains to be seen whether there are clear links between the death rate Italy is currently experiencing and the prevalence of resistant bacteria.

But 70 percent of E. coli bacteria in pig production in Lombardy are so-called ESBL bacteria, which are resistant to several important antibiotics. It is a fact that such bacteria also infect humans.

A problem also in Spain

There is no doubt that the coronavirus is dangerous enough in itself that it can kill people completely without subsequent bacterial infection. However, if the health care system has the capacity and resources to provide good intensive care, the vast majority of intensive care patients will still survive.

Worse, the intensive care unit is also infected by a resistant bacterium. Should it prove that a large number of patients now dying of covid-19 in Italy could have been saved with effective antibiotics, it is a health policy scandal.

It is worth noting here that Spain also has a high prevalence of resistance. Like Italy, they also experience many deaths related to corona.

Must chart the deaths

Every year, 700,000 people die of resistant bacteria worldwide. The figure will quickly increase if resistant microbes are now allowed to spread freely under the chaotic health situation in Europe.

It is therefore crucial that health authorities now map how many of the deaths in Lombardy and the rest of Italy are due to covid-19, and how many are due to the bacterial infection of resistant microbes.

Here at home, we should now be very grateful that we have a health system that saves antibiotics until we really need it, and farmers who hardly use antibiotics on their animals. Probably our restrictive antibiotic policy will now save the lives of many corona patients.

Facts: Sources:

Cassini, Allessandro and others (2018): Attributable deaths and disability-adjusted life-years caused by infections with antibiotic-resistant bacteria in the EU and the European Economic Area in 2015: a population-level modeling analysis. (The Lancet 5.11.2018)

ECDC (2019): ECDC Surveillance Atlas.

ECDC (2019): Surveillance of antimicrobial resistance in Europe 2018.

Zhou, Fei et al. (2020): Clinical course and risk factors for mortality of adult inpatients with COVID-19 in Wuhan, China: a retrospective cohort study. (The Lancet, March 11, 2020).

Antibiotic Research UK.
Originally Posted by CyberGene
Found it, it’s Norway, not Finland, sorry. Hope it’s not fake news:
https://www.aftenposten.no/meninger...saa-mange-liv-i-italia-erik-martiniussen

Well, we never can tell these days, whatever the source. Thanks for the link though, I'll have a look.
Originally Posted by CyberGene
Originally Posted by rmns2bseen
Originally Posted by Brendan
That being said, I don't feel that any country aside from Italy is being honest with their numbers, either because of the lack of testing or to control the narrative. We have to accept that is everywhere at this point and that preventative measures are best to control the spread. Where I live in Texas, we went from one documented case to nearly thirty in a week alone.
What really puzzles me is how and why things got so bad so quickly in Italy. And I don't want to seem callous about it; I or my loved ones could fall victim to it, I don't know. My heart goes out to those who are dealing with it.

I’ve read an interesting article in a Bulgarian newspaper (translated from a Norwegian article) giving a probable explanation being resistant to antibiotics bacteria taking over many Italians and being prevalent in Italian hospitals with root causes being Italians are on average prescribed antibiotics at least twice as much as other European states. As a comparison a number was given that 11000 people in Italy die annually from bacteria resistant to antibiotics compared to 69 in Norway. Furthermore, Lombardy is famous for livestock farms and forages that are full of antibiotics. I’ll try to find the Finnish article.


Interesting - our pediatrician had the same idea (his philosophy in general is to prescribe fewer antibiotics for this reason). That could be the cause, possibly in addition to other factors such as the age of the population and the prevalence of smoking. I think it's too early to tell at this point, but we have some issues here that could lead to a similar death rate.

What really troubles me is that, in a span of weeks, we no longer have culture, arts, or a functioning educational system in the US. So many orchestras are at risk of closing permanently, and it's easier to take away than it is to build. Ditto with higher education. This isn't sustainable for most disciplines, especially music.
Originally Posted by Brendan

That being said, I don't feel that any country aside from Italy is being honest with their numbers


That's interesting. There is a school of thought currently that I've noticed that states the opposite - that Italy are actually lying about their numbers. In other words, reporting deaths of people who died WITH the virus as being BECAUSE of the virus, which are two different things. This originally, apparently was a reporting mistake that they are not backtracking on due to fears of their aid being cut if they reported more accurately.

I think Ockham's razor might suggest that it's more likely that Italy are falsely reporting rather than that every other Country is falsely reporting apart from Italy.

However, who knows what is and what isn't true currently.
The WHO was always saying that the UKs response was far too weak. The UKs position was basically to rubbish the WHO as being far to draconian and that the UK was the only place following the science by taking the herd immunity approach.

I am not sure about any Italian exceptionalism. I suspect it was just unlucky, that as we see with Spain, the UK and USA will follow a similar trajectory for reasons of their own government failure. I also suspect Germany will end up being a much better western example of how to deal with it.

I think NZ will be another positive example.

If we can’t accept that for various western countries their are serious problems with their democratic systems and checks and balances, they will not get fixed. We need to stop finding reasons to blame others, but reflect on our own failures.
Originally Posted by KevinM
The WHO was always saying that the UKs response was far too weak. The UKs position was basically to rubbish the WHO as being far to draconian and that the UK was the only place following the science by taking the herd immunity approach.
...

I don't put much faith in what the WHO says at all. On January 14 they did nothing but parrot what Chinese officials were telling them: no clear evidence of human-to-human contact being responsible for transmission. Given that, what were governments supposed to do? Travel bans were proposed and then condemned as racist and xenophobic. People were urged -- by public officials in NYC -- to eat, drink and be merry in groups. Be sure to get out there and celebrate the Chinese New Year to show you're not a bigot. Oh, and St Patrick's Day, too. We also need to look at media and mindset failures as well and not pin everything on "the government".
Originally Posted by Zaphod
Originally Posted by Brendan

That being said, I don't feel that any country aside from Italy is being honest with their numbers


That's interesting. There is a school of thought currently that I've noticed that states the opposite - that Italy are actually lying about their numbers. In other words, reporting deaths of people who died WITH the virus as being BECAUSE of the virus, which are two different things. This originally, apparently was a reporting mistake that they are not backtracking on due to fears of their aid being cut if they reported more accurately.

I think Ockham's razor might suggest that it's more likely that Italy are falsely reporting rather than that every other Country is falsely reporting apart from Italy.

However, who knows what is and what isn't true currently.


Yeah, that's certainly possible and a distinction that could be made based on how the deaths are actually recorded. My Mom recently passed away from COPD (she was a lifelong smoker), but the death certificate listed heart failure as the cause of death and that tobacco was "probably" the cause of death ( I couldn't believe how absurd that was when I saw it...). Another parallel would be people who die from AIDS-related illnesses (such as pneumonia) not being counted as victims of AIDS.

All very complicated issues, but we just have to wait it out on this one to get a sense of what's really going on.
From my inside knowledge of how deaths from Covid-19 are reported, I know for a fact that anyone who tested positive and subsequently died in the UK is recorded as a death from Covid-19, regardless of whether the victim actually died from (primary) viral or (secondary) bacterial pneumonia, or even cardiac decompensation or sepsis. In fact, it's often difficult to make the distinction between them without an autopsy. (UK residents will also note that when the deaths are reported in the news, the reporters usually use the phrase ".....who have tested positive for Covid-19")

I'd be very surprised if all other Western countries haven't been recording their Covid-19 deaths in the same way.

Incidentally, I also know that in Italy, many deaths from Covid-19 don't actually get recorded as such because the elderly victims died at home with their families around them, and never got tested. (Obviously, they would have died alone in hospital if their families had reported that their elderly relatives had symptoms of the disease when they became ill, and they are very aware of that fact).

Apart from the fact that this practice leads to under-reporting of numbers, it also has repercussions for the transmission of the virus in the community.
Originally Posted by bennevis
Incidentally, I also know that in Italy, many deaths from Covid-19 don't actually get recorded as such because the elderly victims died at home with their families around them, and never got tested.

This appears to be happening in the Netherlands. Even for people who obviously have it and their doctors are not ordering tests because of a claimed shortage of tests. I wonder though why the Dutch are still having a shortage of testing kits when the Koreans are testing everyone who seems sick for whatever reason? I wonder if there is more to this - even something pedestrian, like not wanting to buy 100,000 testing kits...
So much speculation. So much disputing of "facts" and hypotheses. So much pointing of fingers.

With conditions, measures, and theories changing by the minute, why does this thread continue on Piano World?

Regards,
Originally Posted by BruceD


With conditions, measures, and theories changing by the minute, why does this thread continue on Piano World?

I think the question answers itself.
I think I've learned the catch-phrases now. I've only just got used to the ones associated with Britain leaving the European Union "Brexit" they called it. With "Remoaners", "Brexiteers", "Stronger together", "Control our borders", "Norway style deal", "Canada plus style deal", "Canda plus plus style deal".

Now I've got a bunch of new ones to remember.

"Self-isolation", "Social distancing", or is it "Social isolation" and "Self distancing"? I think as a matter of fact, it's both in a way. Or is it "Self iso-distancing and iso-socialastion"? You know when you hear a word or sentence one hundred times in a row and it starts to sound odd and not make sense?

"Death toll", of course, how charming. "Pandemic", "Wash your hands", "Lockdown" - ok I think I've got it. And if I haven't, I'm sure I'll hear them 9 times a minute on the radio tomorrow. I'll also watch the news, which will be all about "Coranavirus" and will have a picture of the virus in the background, looking like some weird Spherical Borg spaceship.

Learning from memory was never my strong point.
Originally Posted by Zaphod
I think I've learned the catch-phrases now. I've only just got used to the ones associated with Britain leaving the European Union "Brexit" they called it. With "Remoaners", "Brexiteers", "Stronger together", "Control our borders", "Norway style deal", "Canada plus style deal", "Canda plus plus style deal".

Now I've got a bunch of new ones to remember.

"Self-isolation", "Social distancing", or is it "Social isolation" and "Self distancing"? I think as a matter of fact, it's both in a way. Or is it "Self iso-distancing and iso-socialastion"? You know when you hear a word or sentence one hundred times in a row and it starts to sound odd and not make sense?

"Death toll", of course, how charming. "Pandemic", "Wash your hands", "Lockdown" - ok I think I've got it. And if I haven't, I'm sure I'll hear them 9 times a minute on the radio tomorrow. I'll also watch the news, which will be all about "Coranavirus" and will have a picture of the virus in the background, looking like some weird Spherical Borg spaceship.

Learning from memory was never my strong point.


There’s more:

Physical distancing
Slow the spread
Flatten the curve
Plank the curve
Shelter in place
Quarantine
Sneeze into your sleeve
Don’t touch your face
Coronavirus
Covid-19
C19
SARS-CoV-2
Exponential growth
Fatality
Co-morbidity
Underlying conditions
Immunocompromised
N95
Surgical mask
Ventilators
Intubation

I’m sure there are many more.
Originally Posted by BruceD
So much speculation. So much disputing of "facts" and hypotheses. So much pointing of fingers.


Sadly that's the level of many Internet discussions. Make up theories without expertise or evidence, and pretty soon you've got a flat earth cult.
Originally Posted by johnstaf
Originally Posted by BruceD
So much speculation. So much disputing of "facts" and hypotheses. So much pointing of fingers.


Sadly that's the level of many Internet discussions. Make up theories without expertise or evidence, and pretty soon you've got a flat earth cult.


I understand that that is the nature of the beast. I just wonder why so many are using a Piano World thread for this endless "discussion."

Regards,
Originally Posted by Brendan
My Mom recently passed away.


I'm so sorry to hear that Brendan.
Originally Posted by Tyrone Slothrop
Originally Posted by bennevis
Incidentally, I also know that in Italy, many deaths from Covid-19 don't actually get recorded as such because the elderly victims died at home with their families around them, and never got tested.

This appears to be happening in the Netherlands. Even for people who obviously have it and their doctors are not ordering tests because of a claimed shortage of tests. I wonder though why the Dutch are still having a shortage of testing kits when the Koreans are testing everyone who seems sick for whatever reason? I wonder if there is more to this - even something pedestrian, like not wanting to buy 100,000 testing kits...


In fact the testing is a long process. You have to take a sample and send it to a specialized laboratory which has to process it for 5 hours. Most countries dont have enough laboratories and personnel to increase their testing capacity. There are actions underway in several countries to simplify and shorten the testing and increase the capacity. There are also 2 different tests. One that simply says if you are positive at the present time, but you could be infected the next day. The other one identifies if you already had the virus and therefore are somehow immune (though not clear how immune that is and for how long). This simply shows that most countries did not take actions early enough to prepare for the virus and many countries have been cutting their health budgets for several years thus leading to an understaffed, under equipped health system.
Originally Posted by BruceD
Originally Posted by johnstaf
Originally Posted by BruceD
So much speculation. So much disputing of "facts" and hypotheses. So much pointing of fingers.


Sadly that's the level of many Internet discussions. Make up theories without expertise or evidence, and pretty soon you've got a flat earth cult.


I understand that that is the nature of the beast. I just wonder why so many are using a Piano World thread for this endless "discussion."

Regards,


Nobody's forcing you to read it. Those with superior knowledge and wisdom are likewise free to enlighten us at any time.
I'd like to apologize for the above comment, and I would delete it if I could. That was a totally out of line, and I do acknowledge that my comments in the thread have been unduly and impulsively "political" (a sphere of life I find increasingly disgusting) without having a complete knowledge of the facts. So, my apologies to BruceD and johnstaf. And Tyrone Slothrop as well. Wishes for good health to all, whatever happens.
Originally Posted by rmns2bseen
I'd like to apologize for the above comment, and I would delete it if I could. That was a totally out of line, and I do acknowledge that my comments in the thread have been unduly and impulsively "political" (a sphere of life I find increasingly disgusting) without having a complete knowledge of the facts. So, my apologies to BruceD and johnstaf. And Tyrone Slothrop as well. Wishes for good health to all, whatever happens.


What a humble and contrite spirit you have. Very admirable!

God Bless,
David
Not humble enough, I'm afraid. God bless you as well, David.
Originally Posted by rmns2bseen
I'd like to apologize for the above comment, and I would delete it if I could. That was a totally out of line, and I do acknowledge that my comments in the thread have been unduly and impulsively "political" (a sphere of life I find increasingly disgusting) without having a complete knowledge of the facts. So, my apologies to BruceD and johnstaf. And Tyrone Slothrop as well. Wishes for good health to all, whatever happens.


I much appreciate that comment, rmns2bseen, but no apologies are necessary to me. In return, I wish for your continued good health and I hope for the same for all members of this community, whatever our individual perspectives may be.

Thank you.

Regards,
A new Imperial College study of Europe was released today which has some fascinating results, which I interpret as potentially very good news:

“We estimate that, across all 11 countries between 7 and 43 million individuals have been infected with SARS-CoV-2 up to 28th March, representing between 1.88% and 11.43% of the population.

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/im...urope-estimates-and-NPI-impact-30-03-2020.pdf

Those figures suggest that the virus is much less deadly, perhaps by orders of magnitude, then we have been led to believe. Hospitals are likely being overwhelmed because of the huge number of people infected, as opposed to the virus itself being extremely virulent.

This supports the conclusions from the recent Oxford University study, as well as the WSJ article by Stanford University professors of medicine.

This should be confirmed or refuted shortly as we start serologic antibody testing.

Importantly, all-cause mortality rates in Europe have remained normal through week 12 of 2020 despite potentially tens of millions of people being infected. Let’s hope this trend continues.

https://www.euromomo.eu/index.html
Correct link to the new Imperial College study:

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/im...-estimates-and-NPI-impact-30-03-2020.pdf
Don't believe what the Chinese say. Instead, interpret based on what they do.

Another data point: Wuhan has just relaxed its lockdown. (An earlier data point was the Chinese authorities closing 20 temporary hospitals with 20,000 beds in total about 2 weeks ago.)
I’m wondering if this could be some sort of propaganda? Wuhan has already created the reputation of being the source of the biggest pandemic in modern times, partly because of the gruesome wet market practices. And so these pictures of life being resumed, as though nothing has happened, might be an attempt at negating the backlash.
Originally Posted by CyberGene
I’m wondering if this could be some sort of propaganda?


If the Chinese Communist Party has anything to do with it, I'd say that was almost a safe bet.
Originally Posted by Zaphod
Originally Posted by CyberGene
I’m wondering if this could be some sort of propaganda?


If the Chinese Communist Party has anything to do with it, I'd say that was almost a safe bet.

And if a lockdown does anything, then don't you think there would be consequences to relaxing a lockdown when the epidemic is still raging? Because if there are no consequences to cancelling lockdowns early, then lets just score political points everywhere and cancel the lockdowns since it doesn't matter and won't effect the infection rate.

I think it's hard to think of things which are more insane for China to do, if the infection is raging, then to both close hospitals (claimed earlier in the thread this is a propaganda move) and relax lockdowns (claimed now to be a propaganda move).

BTW, in contrast, another country without much freedom, Russia, just went into official lockdown today and it only has 1600 official cases with estimates of the real numbers at about 3-4000, and tomorrow, they expect to pass a new law sending people to prison for violating quarantine.

If China is closing hospitals and relaxing lockdowns in Wuhan at a time when the "reality" is that the epidemic is out of control in Wuhan, then China would be just rolling the dice. I ask you, what are some other examples of China rolling the dice? China is not known for rolling dice. And furthermore, this is so risky that there is probably only one man in China who could make a decision like that - that is, to close hospitals and relax lockdowns in the face of an out-of-control epidemic.

Don't let your hatred for the Chinese Communist Party to overcome your logic and reason about this situation in China.
Am I to assume this forum cannot be accessed by pianists in China? Because it sounds like people here are talking about "them" as if no Chinese people are present. But aren't there a lot of pianists in China? Or a lot of pianists from China that are living abroad? I thought this forum was international. Music is international. Music is the human soul. It is pure. It rises above politics and does not exclude.
Originally Posted by wszxbcl
Am I to assume this forum cannot be accessed by pianists in China? Because it sounds like people here are talking about "them" as if no Chinese people are present. But aren't there a lot of pianists in China? Or a lot of pianists from China that are living abroad? I thought this forum was international. Music is international. Music is the human soul. It is pure. It rises above politics and does not exclude.

There a few of us on this forum originally from China and a few who are still in China.
I’m not sure why any hint at Chinese communist party doing bad things is interpreted as hatred and racism. I’ve lived in a communist country and I was 7 when Chernobyl disaster happened. It is now known that the Bulgarian state knew but didn’t inform people for days. We went out, consumed food and whatnot whereas we could have taken some simple measures. In the years that followed I have had two pathological fractures of my left shoulder due to a bone cyst and doctors said that was an increased incident among children after the disaster. My shoulder would break while I was just playing outside. I went through some painful procedures... Why? Because that’s how communist party works when there are major emergencies and life threatening disaster with high risk for their own people. That isn’t hatred or racism. It’s the cold reality: for communist party people are just an asset that is expendable.
Originally Posted by wszxbcl
Am I to assume this forum cannot be accessed by pianists in China? Because it sounds like people here are talking about "them" as if no Chinese people are present. But aren't there a lot of pianists in China? Or a lot of pianists from China that are living abroad? I thought this forum was international. Music is international. Music is the human soul. It is pure. It rises above politics and does not exclude.

The fact Chinese pianists are among the top ones in the world and are usually the most represented country in major competitions, and at the same time there are almost no Chinese pianists in this forum (I mean those still living there) should tell you something. Participating in a US forum would certainly guarantee that there will be bad consequences for you.
Well, I also apologize. These weeks of having to stay at home have taken its toll and I’ve become too irritated by everything...

Mods, please delete my last 4 posts. I’m sorry. Didn’t want to bring political talk... Apologies to the forum.
Originally Posted by wszxbcl
Am I to assume this forum cannot be accessed by pianists in China? Because it sounds like people here are talking about "them" as if no Chinese people are present.


I'm not sure I quite understand. Are you saying that any Chinese members of this forum are going to take offence at criticism of the Communist Party? Or am I misinterpreting what you're saying?

As far as I'm concerned, the Communist Party and the citizens are two entirely different things.

Originally Posted by CyberGene
Well, I also apologize. These weeks of having to stay at home have taken its toll and I’ve become too irritated by everything...

Mods, please delete my last 4 posts. I’m sorry. Didn’t want to bring political talk... Apologies to the forum.


Well personally I thought you raised some valid points, but if it's against forum rules to bring up such things, then I will also refrain. Not quite sure what the situation is with this one.
Originally Posted by CyberGene
I’m not sure why any hint at Chinese communist party doing bad things is interpreted as hatred and racism.


Neither am I. Seems like a real stretch to conflate the two.
As I was worrying about weeks ago:

"UNMC study gives more indication of airborne transmission of coronavirus


The initial phases of a joint study by the University of Nebraska Medical Center and others show new evidence that COVID-19 could be airborne, but perhaps not in the same way as other highly contagious illnesses such as measles.

The researchers, including those at Nebraska Medicine and the National Strategic Research Institute at the University of Nebraska, emphasized the study did not confirm the airborne spread, but rather identified genetic material from the virus in air samples that could show potential for that type of spread.
...

The findings indicate that the disease might be spread through both droplets and person-to-person contact, as well as indirect contact with contaminated objects and airborne transmission with small droplets that may be able to travel distances. It suggests airborne isolation precautions could be appropriate, the researchers said."

https://norfolkdailynews.com/news/u...c67c0b6-f7b9-5526-ae5b-d3cad83e1005.html
TB Vaccine Could Be a Valuable Weapon in COVID-19 Fight

Quote
We found that countries without universal policies of BCG vaccination, such as Italy, the Netherlands, and the United States have been more severely affected compared to countries with universal and long-standing BCG policies,” the researchers state.
According to the study, made widely available by MedRXiv, a combination of reduced morbidity and mortality could make the BCG vaccination a game-changer in the fight against COVID-19.

For example Iran, which has a current universal BCG vaccination policy that only started in 1984, has an elevated mortality rate with 19.7 deaths per million inhabitants. In contrast, Japan, which started its universal BCG policy in 1947, has approximately 100 times fewer deaths per million people, with 0.28 deaths. Furthermore, Brazil started universal vaccination in 1920 and has an even lower mortality rate of 0.0573 deaths per million inhabitants.
So why do some nations vaccinate while others do not? As TB cases fell in the late 20th century, several higher-income countries in Europe dropped their universal BCG policies between 1963 and 2010. In the United States, the CDC currently recommends the BCG vaccine only for very select persons who meet specific criteria and in consultation with a TB expert.
It’s amazing how much things have changed since the WHO sent this tweet in mid January. So much sadness and grief across the world since then.

[Linked Image]
Originally Posted by 3am_stargazing
As I was worrying about weeks ago:

"UNMC study gives more indication of airborne transmission of coronavirus


The initial phases of a joint study by the University of Nebraska Medical Center and others show new evidence that COVID-19 could be airborne, but perhaps not in the same way as other highly contagious illnesses such as measles.

The researchers, including those at Nebraska Medicine and the National Strategic Research Institute at the University of Nebraska, emphasized the study did not confirm the airborne spread, but rather identified genetic material from the virus in air samples that could show potential for that type of spread.
...

The findings indicate that the disease might be spread through both droplets and person-to-person contact, as well as indirect contact with contaminated objects and airborne transmission with small droplets that may be able to travel distances. It suggests airborne isolation precautions could be appropriate, the researchers said."

https://norfolkdailynews.com/news/u...c67c0b6-f7b9-5526-ae5b-d3cad83e1005.html

I am surprised that anyone still thought that it wasn't air transmissible after the Diamond Princess.
Originally Posted by Tyrone Slothrop

I am surprised that anyone still thought that it wasn't air transmissible after the Diamond Princess.

What happened on that cruise ship tells us nothing about how the virus is transmitted.
Originally Posted by JJHLH
It’s amazing how much things have changed since the WHO sent this tweet in mid January. So much sadness and grief across the world since then.

[Linked Image]

Unfortunately, WHO seems to be in the pocket of the Chinese government.

This article, A call to honesty in pandemic modeling, is discussed in the newspaper story, Pittsburgh professors see flaws in coronavirus modeling, predict more grim outlook.

Excerpt from the story:
Quote
Two Pittsburgh academics argue that much of the modeling regarding the trajectory of the covid-19 pandemic has been fundamentally flawed — and the real outlook for the disease is much more dismal.

Wesley Pegden and Maria Chikina have joined an international conversation about projections of how dire the covid-19 pandemic may become.

In a scathing analysis published March 29 on Medium, “A Call to Honesty in Pandemic Modeling,” Pegden and Chikina assert that many of the popular models being cited by national media and <potentially political thing deleted> are misleading. Pegden is an associate professor of mathematics at Carnegie Mellon University and Chikina is an assistant professor of molecular biology at the University of Pittsburgh; they are a married couple.

“The idea that normal life can resume in two to three months without having a huge wave in infections — there is just no science behind that,” Pegden said in a Tribune-Review interview.

Their research concludes that models claiming social distancing will flatten the curve in as little as two months are flawed. ...
From this article:

Quote
New federal guidelines are also expected soon on wearing face masks to help curb the spread of the virus, Trump said Thursday, adding that the guidance won't require all Americans to use face coverings.
"I don't think they'll be mandatory because some people don't want to do that," he said, adding that Americans who do want to wear face coverings can "decide for themselves."
Trump's announcement came a day after a panel of experts told the White House that research shows coronavirus can be spread not just by sneezes and coughs but also by talking and possibly breathing.
"While the current (coronavirus) specific research is limited, the results of available studies are consistent with aerosolization of virus from normal breathing," according to a letter written by Dr. Harvey Fineberg, chairman of a committee with the National Academy of Sciences.
Masks should not, however, replace social distancing, Fauci said on Fox News' "Fox & Friends" Friday morning.
"The most important thing is to keep this 6-foot physical distance from individuals," he said, adding he recognizes there are scenarios in which that's not possible.
"Because of some recent information that the virus can actually be spread even when people just speak as opposed to coughing and sneezing, the better part of valor is that when you're out and you can't maintain that 6-foot distance to wear some sort of facial covering," Fauci said.
"So, this is an addendum and an addition to the physical separation," he added, "not a substitute for it."
This just happened 90 minutes ago:

NYT: "Wuhan, Where Coronavirus Emerged, Lifts Lockdown After 11 Weeks"

Quote
Just after midnight on Wednesday, the city’s 11 million residents were free to leave their homes for the first time in more than 10 weeks, but must be tracked electronically.

The Chinese city of Wuhan, the birthplace of the coronavirus pandemic, lifted its lockdown on Wednesday, allowing 11 million residents to leave their homes without special authorization for the first time in more than 10 weeks.

(Again, the skeptical please note: This lifting of the lockdown in Wuhan would be totally insane as a purely political stunt and if someone authorized such political theater while in reality, COVID-19 was still secretly running rampant in Wuhan, they would likely lose their head... This is not to say that the Chinese Government always tells the truth - I'm not making such a claim. I'm only commenting on the "current" state of the virus in Wuhan, regardless of what the Chinese Government should specifically claim about it.)
Tyrone - note the electron tagging, the pictures from Wuhan and read the Taiwan news for the unofficial death toll. Also what the residents have been told about the origin of the virus.
Tyrone - also read this report.Wuhan
Originally Posted by Colin Miles
Tyrone - also read this report.Wuhan

Colin didn't I just say that I am not saying that China doesn't lie? Wouldn't it be wonderful if they told the truth on everything? I'm just saying that there is evidence from their behavior that China has now gotten Wuhan under (what they think of) as control, regardless of what the actual numbers were at one time or even now. This behavioral evidence (i.e., lifting the lockdown) could be faked, but only by a madman.
I think the truth lies somewhere between what China is saying and what Taiwan is saying lol!
Originally Posted by Tyrone Slothrop
This just happened 90 minutes ago:

NYT: "Wuhan, Where Coronavirus Emerged, Lifts Lockdown After 11 Weeks"

Quote
Just after midnight on Wednesday, the city’s 11 million residents were free to leave their homes for the first time in more than 10 weeks, but must be tracked electronically.

The Chinese city of Wuhan, the birthplace of the coronavirus pandemic, lifted its lockdown on Wednesday, allowing 11 million residents to leave their homes without special authorization for the first time in more than 10 weeks.

(Again, the skeptical please note: This lifting of the lockdown in Wuhan would be totally insane as a purely political stunt and if someone authorized such political theater while in reality, COVID-19 was still secretly running rampant in Wuhan, they would likely lose their head... This is not to say that the Chinese Government always tells the truth - I'm not making such a claim. I'm only commenting on the "current" state of the virus in Wuhan, regardless of what the Chinese Government should specifically claim about it.)

Uh, yeah, about that:
Quote
Epidemiologists, U.S. intelligence sources and Wuhan residents suspect that Chinese authorities substantially undercounted infections and deaths over the past several months, especially in Wuhan, in part to boost President Xi Jinping’s image. Such doubts, combined with the reports of new asymptomatic cases, are triggering fears of a potential second wave of infections that could undermine Beijing’s claim to have tamed the virus.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/china-...t-remains-incomplete-11586293305?mod=mhp

As I suspected. An authoritarian government doesn't care how many of its own citizens are fed through the meat grinder. It just cares about maintaining power and control.
On Tencent the 'true' numbers have been flashing up only to be quickly replaced by the official ones.
Originally Posted by rmns2bseen
Uh, yeah, about that:
Quote
Epidemiologists, U.S. intelligence sources and Wuhan residents suspect that Chinese authorities substantially undercounted infections and deaths over the past several months, especially in Wuhan, in part to boost President Xi Jinping’s image. Such doubts, combined with the reports of new asymptomatic cases, are triggering fears of a potential second wave of infections that could undermine Beijing’s claim to have tamed the virus.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/china-...t-remains-incomplete-11586293305?mod=mhp

As I suspected. An authoritarian government doesn't care how many of its own citizens are fed through the meat grinder. It just cares about maintaining power and control.
Originally Posted by Colin Miles
On Tencent the 'true' numbers have been flashing up only to be quickly replaced by the official ones.

And perhaps the actual China numbers are 10x or 20x the reported numbers, but you are entirely missing my point. At least two people questioned my earlier posts about the infection in Wuhan being under control while nowhere in the West is it close to being under control yet. This is my point.

Even if the actual numbers are 100x that of what are reported, the Chinese do think they now have it under control.

I am not arguing the numbers. I am not arguing about whether or not China tells the truth. And I am not arguing China is a well-behaved democratic country that treats its people with respect (re: meat grinders). I am arguing that China has the infection in Wuhan under control, and I think that is becoming indisputable.

So the narrative must at least change. Those negative about China will need to slow their roll on whether China really has COVID-19 under control and switch over to claiming that it is now under control only because of their totalitarian system. wink (There, I've fed you some talking points for your next few posts. 🤣)
Originally Posted by Tyrone Slothrop

Even if the actual numbers are 100x that of what are reported, the Chinese do think they now have it under control.


I think your point is clear. If the whole thing were just for show, they could have avoided having any lockdown at all. They could have claimed to be the only country in the world without any virus cases, but they're not stupid.
Maybe we should concentrate on how this epidemic could have been prevented by eradicating wet markets in China even after SARS outbreak many years ago. It's too late now but how about Chinese government finally showing that gruesome wet markets are now a thing from the past smile
Originally Posted by Tyrone Slothrop
At least two people questioned my earlier posts about the infection in Wuhan being under control while nowhere in the West is it close to being under control yet. This is my point.

Even if the actual numbers are 100x that of what are reported, the Chinese do think they now have it under control.
How do you know it's "under control"?
Originally Posted by johnstaf
They could have claimed to be the only country in the world without any virus cases
They're getting close to doing just that. grin
Originally Posted by rmns2bseen
Originally Posted by Tyrone Slothrop
At least two people questioned my earlier posts about the infection in Wuhan being under control while nowhere in the West is it close to being under control yet. This is my point.

Even if the actual numbers are 100x that of what are reported, the Chinese do think they now have it under control.
How do you know it's "under control"?

Not by listening to what they say, but by observing evidence such as the lifting of the 11-week lockdown on Wuhan.
Originally Posted by johnstaf
They could have claimed to be the only country in the world without any virus cases

Hey, I thought that's North Korea! laugh laugh
Originally Posted by Tyrone Slothrop
Originally Posted by rmns2bseen
Originally Posted by Tyrone Slothrop
At least two people questioned my earlier posts about the infection in Wuhan being under control while nowhere in the West is it close to being under control yet. This is my point.

Even if the actual numbers are 100x that of what are reported, the Chinese do think they now have it under control.
How do you know it's "under control"?

Not by listening to what they say, but by observing evidence such as the lifting of the 11-week lockdown on Wuhan.

Did you even read either of the articles that were posted? And now there's another city, Suifenhe, that's under lockdown. And if the actual numbers are "100x" what's stated, that's hardly "under control".
Originally Posted by rmns2bseen
Originally Posted by Tyrone Slothrop
Originally Posted by rmns2bseen
Originally Posted by Tyrone Slothrop
At least two people questioned my earlier posts about the infection in Wuhan being under control while nowhere in the West is it close to being under control yet. This is my point.

Even if the actual numbers are 100x that of what are reported, the Chinese do think they now have it under control.
How do you know it's "under control"?

Not by listening to what they say, but by observing evidence such as the lifting of the 11-week lockdown on Wuhan.

Did you even read either of the articles that were posted? And now there's another city, Suifenhe, that's under lockdown.

Yes. Bravo to the Chinese. I applaud every city they lock down - it shows they are really taking this virus seriously. And I think this also shows that they are not playing around with "lockdowns" for political theater, as some have speculated.

Originally Posted by rmns2bseen
And if the actual numbers are "100x" what's stated, that's hardly "under control".

It absolutely is (that is, what I said, which is that it's either under control or the Chinese think it's under control) if they feeling they can lift the lockdown. I am watching their behavior, not what they say. (Coming from China myself, I have a healthy skepticism about what the authorities there say, but it doesn't change what they do and the information their actions convey.)
Originally Posted by Tyrone Slothrop
I am watching their behavior, not what they say.
Yeah, so am I. An article from on official Chinese newspaper stated that there could be 10k-20k asymptomatic infected people in Wuhan. That article was quickly sent down the memory hole. It *could* be that maybe, just maybe, China isn't as adept at testing as they'd like us to believe.
Originally Posted by rmns2bseen
Originally Posted by Tyrone Slothrop
I am watching their behavior, not what they say.
Yeah, so am I. An article from on official Chinese newspaper stated that there could be 10k-20k asymptomatic infected people in Wuhan. That article was quickly sent down the memory hole.

And there could be. But the authorities clearly think it is under control or else they would never have lifted the lockdown on Wuhan. In the end, they could be wrong and be kicking themselves in a few months for lifting the Wuhan lockdown. In fact, we could all be wrong, We (I'm using the global we, here) don't have a handle on asymptomatic infections.
Originally Posted by Tyrone Slothrop
But the authorities clearly think it is under control or else they would never have lifted the lockdown on Wuhan.
Yeah, the same authorities who were stating in mid-January that there was no evidence of human-to-human transmission. Doesn't mean jack sh*t. Pardon my skepticism.
Originally Posted by rmns2bseen
Originally Posted by Tyrone Slothrop
But the authorities clearly think it is under control or else they would never have lifted the lockdown on Wuhan.
Yeah, the same authorities who were stating in mid-January that there was no evidence of human-to-human transmission. Doesn't mean jack sh*t. Pardon my skepticism.

You are again talking about what they say. When they were saying in January there was no evidence, that didn't mean they were thinking it. I'm talking about what they do - all my posts since yesterday have been about what they do.

A comment. If we question not what authorities say but what they think and believe, then we have effectively challenged what any country, West or East, is doing about this virus. Because there is no clairvoyance. None of us knows what will really happen, only what we think may happen based on information we have. So what the Chinese have done in Wuhan reflects what they think. What they think is no better, but also no worse, than what Governments from the US to the UK to various European Governments think - just making the best guess based on information and analysis available. In this, the Chinese are in the same boat. They just may be more opaque in conveying what they think than the West, but as I pointed out above, some information is conveyed just by their actions.
Originally Posted by Tyrone Slothrop
You are again talking about what they say. When they were saying in January there was no evidence, that didn't mean they were thinking it. I'm talking about what they do - all my posts since yesterday have been about what they do.
What they do and say are entwined. There's not much of a dichotomy.
Quote
Because there is no clairvoyance. None of us knows what will really happen, only what we think may happen based on information we have.
But yet the US and other countries are taken to task for not being prepared for this virus which Chinese officials AND the WHO were assuring us was no cause for alarm. In fact, that's action and deed combined. It was deemed to be racist and xenophobic to impose travel restrictions. Public officials in NYC were encouraging everyone to get out and about. The media -- and not just "right wing" media -- were telling us we had more to fear from the flu.
Originally Posted by rmns2bseen
Originally Posted by Tyrone Slothrop
You are again talking about what they say. When they were saying in January there was no evidence, that didn't mean they were thinking it. I'm talking about what they do - all my posts since yesterday have been about what they do.
What they do and say are entwined. There's not much of a dichotomy.

What? Of course there is a dichotomy if you are saying that they lied. Because they imposed an 11 week lockdown on Wuhan after saying there was nothing going on. If what they said was that there was nothing happening but what they did showed they feared something was happening, isn't that a dichotomy? But now, I agree that they are saying that they have it under control and their actions do reflect this by releasing the 11-week lockdown, so there's less dichotomy in the Chinese today between what they say and what they do.
^ sorry, "action and word" combined
Originally Posted by Tyrone Slothrop
What? Of course there is a dichotomy if you are saying that they lied. Because they imposed an 11 week lockdown on Wuhan after saying there was nothing going on. Isn't that a dichotomy? But now, I agree that they are saying that they have it under control and their actions do reflect this by releasing the 11-week lockdown.
The cat was out of the bag by that time. Look, any state, but especially an authoritarian one, has got to at least put up the appearances of being "in control". The situation in Wuhan with lockdown or lifting the lockdown may mean very little. It could mean the CCP doesn't know what it's doing, or isn't really equipped to handle it. It could mean they'd sacrifice the entire city if it meant holding on to power. It wouldn't be the first historical example. I'm not going to sit here and say that their words OR actions mean diddly-squat in relation to reality.
Originally Posted by thepianoplayer416
Looks like the US is on top of the list:
Not surprising, given the traffic in and out of the country.
While countries are debating how far quarantine should go and whether wearing masks would slow the spread of the virus, here is the latest stats on the infected numbers. Looks like the US is on top of the list:

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By the way, is there anybody out there that believes there are fewer cases in China than in France? Come on.
Comparing China and France is maybe difficult. The countries are too different in terms of openness and so on. What I find really striking is that there are about as many infected in France and in Germany, but ten times as many casualties in France. One interpretation is that this may mean that there are actually also ten times as many infected in France. So, maybe the numbers from China are quite a bit off, but also other countries seem to over- or underestimate substantially, or differ in how or what they count.
Originally Posted by rmns2bseen
Originally Posted by Tyrone Slothrop
What? Of course there is a dichotomy if you are saying that they lied. Because they imposed an 11 week lockdown on Wuhan after saying there was nothing going on. Isn't that a dichotomy? But now, I agree that they are saying that they have it under control and their actions do reflect this by releasing the 11-week lockdown.
The cat was out of the bag by that time. Look, any state, but especially an authoritarian one, has got to at least put up the appearances of being "in control". The situation in Wuhan with lockdown or lifting the lockdown may mean very little. It could mean the CCP doesn't know what it's doing, or isn't really equipped to handle it. It could mean they'd sacrifice the entire city if it meant holding on to power. It wouldn't be the first historical example. I'm not going to sit here and say that their words OR actions mean diddly-squat in relation to reality.

You think it's really possible that Xi Jingping decided to sacrifice the entire province of Hubei, in which Wuhan is located? Where are the quarantines around Hubei? Or are you speculating that Xi Jingping might be trying to sacrifice the entire country of China to hold onto power? Wow. That would be the very definition of Pyrrhic victory. You are grasping at straws, Sir. You can ignore their actions. This is like ignore the world around. Feel free to do so. I'm going to check out of this discussion now as it has gotten silly.
Originally Posted by Tyrone Slothrop

You think it's really possible that Xi Jingping decided to sacrifice the entire province of Hubei, in which Wuhan is located?
What makes you think it's impossible? The CCP's record of benevolence? And yeah, I'll check out as well since it's getting unavoidably political.
This thread is done.
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