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Originally Posted by Greener
Since when is life supposed to be fair anyway? Maybe we can try for it, but it has never been fair for everyone. A fact of life.

Encouraging to me is that the world has been forced into low gear for a time after racing at break neck speed for decades.

Never let a good crisis go to waste. For some at least it has forced us to reflect on what is really important and there is more to it than just our cherished freedom.

More people are taking up piano now and eventually things will recover. Meanwhile invest in physical Gold and Silver.
The question 1: to live or to survive?(freedom or to be controlled which really allow somebody to survive?)
The question 2: will this story ended up with the same approach that it has started ?

I mean the COVID-19 outbreak with data, freedom and speech censorship; some places ended with data, freedom and speech censorship. May followed by other countries, at least I am sure many people believe on this approach. Maybe because they never understand what the fake data is and never try to dig deeper on the data meaning.

Last edited by zonzi; 12/07/20 12:46 PM.

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Data is real. They use words to confuse. "1 million new infections in the first 5 days of December, California is now under heavy lockdown." That person doesn't understand the difference between an infection and a case. There haven't been 1 million new infections in 5 days. That would be a crazy end of the world scenario. The term "case" has been altered just for the new normal. Under the old normal a doctor would have to diagnose symptoms and even run tests to confirm for a "case." Now if someone has tested positive, more people can be called a case if they have been around that person within 6' for more than 15 mins. None of them have will have had to see a doctor. They don't even need to have symptoms to be called a case. No symptoms and no doctors and contact tracers knocking on your door because you have been in close contact with someone is not comfortable situation.


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This is quite tricky, some part is quite reliable data which you are constantly aware.
But the consequence data, for example, the COVID-19 death data is very tricky, there are different statistics called with the same name:
-COVID-19 main death cause.
-other disease or accidental death but with COVID-19 positive.
-other death resons without COVID-19 positive, for example the people need hospital resource but they cannot because hospital saturation during the COVID-19 period; or in some cases the people need some cure services but the proper personal is in quarantine or the lockdown doesn't allow those people to receive the proper cure service
.......
So there are still a lot could be done on those data and maybe claim safe at some point, because the resource doesn't allow.
In this case, the COVID-19 will have the most powerful outbreak in the real world.


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Originally Posted by LemonColor
Data is real. They use words to confuse. "1 million new infections in the first 5 days of December, California is now under heavy lockdown." That person doesn't understand the difference between an infection and a case. There haven't been 1 million new infections in 5 days. That would be a crazy end of the world scenario. The term "case" has been altered just for the new normal. Under the old normal a doctor would have to diagnose symptoms and even run tests to confirm for a "case." Now if someone has tested positive, more people can be called a case if they have been around that person within 6' for more than 15 mins. None of them have will have had to see a doctor. They don't even need to have symptoms to be called a case. No symptoms and no doctors and contact tracers knocking on your door because you have been in close contact with someone is not comfortable situation.

According to Worldometer, the USA had over 200,000 new cases yesterday. So 1 million new cases in 5 days is about right: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

And to be clear, a "case" is always tied to an individual, not an estimate of infections in a population: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Clinical_case_definition

Further, there may be up to 8 times more infections than there have been cases: https://academic.oup.com/cid/advance-article/doi/10.1093/cid/ciaa1780/6000389

So with 15.4 million cases, that makes possibly 123.2 million infections. Divided by the population of 328.2 gives us a possible infection rate of 37.5% - over 1/3 of the population may already have been infected.

But let's say the ratio of cases to infection is more like 6:1. That means the case fatality ratio of 1.9% correlates to an infection fatality ratio of around 0.3%: https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/mortality

So somewhere around 1 in 300 people that have gotten covid have died, a recovery rate of 99.7% Of course the outcome is improving all the time along with only 2/3 of the population being presumably susceptible to becoming infected.

Then there is the question of those with such a robust immune system that they will not develop antibodies and therefore will have been infected but not show up in any data: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41577-020-00460-4

Is the glass half empty or half full?


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I was quite shocked to learn how many children (repeat children) die every year (repeat every year) from malnutrition (a relatively easy problem to solve). Google it yourself.

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Death rates in the US are unaffected in 2020 compared to previous years. People are taking PCR tests without knowing how often the test is being cycled through the PCR method. 23 cycles is not the same as 47. A case without symptoms or a diagnosis, is as meaningless as a cause of death without an autopsy. Even the inventor of the PCR spoke out against it ever being used to diagnose anything. Mathematical models of infection? No thank you, very much.

Death rate unchanged, people taking test with highly cycled rates, high false positive rates, still no isolates of the virus available for independent study, the glass is half full for sure.

Also, SARS-COV-2 is a virus. COVID-19 is the disease. People use them interchangeably. Its not. AIDS and HIV is the same thing. One is a virus, the other is a disease linked to another PRC test.


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Originally Posted by LemonColor
Death rates in the US are unaffected in 2020 compared to previous years.

...

Not so, scroll down to the graph: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm

I am not going to look at much more you have to say unless you back it up with references.


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Jeff, your 7.1 times more infections reference was based on a mathematical model. It is a guess using math. That is not real. Your CDC reference does not say what you think it says. According to the CDC, excess deaths is based on what exceeds the algorithms based on the surveillance package. They create a model for each jurisdiction and set a threshold by on that expected counts. Their “excess deaths” is based on their algorithms. They use words differently than I am using words. I am comparing year to year actual deaths and what is statistically relevant. You can’t just look at a graph. You have to read how it was produced. Would you like to talk about it?

Here is a John Hopkins University talk where they walk though the process of downloading the real CDC data, and demonstrate what the numbers mean. It is a dry one hour talk, but here it is:
https://youtu.be/3TKJN61aflI


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Originally Posted by LemonColor
Jeff, your 7.1 times more infections reference was based on a mathematical model. It is a guess using math. That is not real. Your CDC reference does not say what you think it says. According to the CDC, excess deaths is based on what exceeds the algorithms based on the surveillance package. They create a model for each jurisdiction and set a threshold by on that expected counts. Their “excess deaths” is based on their algorithms. They use words differently than I am using words. I am comparing year to year actual deaths and what is statistically relevant. You can’t just look at a graph. You have to read how it was produced. Would you like to talk about it?

Here is a John Hopkins University talk where they walk though the process of downloading the real CDC data, and demonstrate what the numbers mean. It is a dry one hour talk, but here it is:
https://youtu.be/3TKJN61aflI


You can select "Excess deaths with and without COVID-19" and update the dashboad, again, scroll down: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm

You are welcome to post links to other data so that anyone may look at it and make up their own minds. I may consider such data, but not whatever it is you are spewing.

Last edited by UnrightTooner; 12/08/20 03:02 PM.

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Oooops, missed answering your direct question.

Originally Posted by LemonColor
...

They use words differently than I am using words.

...

Would you like to talk about it?

...

Since you use words differently than others, no I do not want to talk. What you say might mean anything.


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You have to understand what excess deaths means to the CDC, not to me. "Excess deaths" isn't what you think it is. The CDC uses it differently than how you are trying to use it. You have to read very carefully to understand how the CDC defines the term "excess deaths." You can not assume because you speak English you know what that term means.

People need to carefully read how the data in the link that you posted was put together. There is no need for another link, unless people need help understanding what the CDC's "excess death" means. It doesn't mean if you average 1000 deaths a year over the last decade, and this year you have 1500 deaths, that you have 500 excess deaths. It should mean that but it doesn't.

The CDC tells you in that link that the excess deaths is based on what is in excess to the models and algorithms that are being used.


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Originally Posted by LemonColor
You have to understand what excess deaths means to the CDC, not to me. "Excess deaths" isn't what you think it is. The CDC uses it differently than how you are trying to use it. You have to read very carefully to understand how the CDC defines the term "excess deaths."
All your posts in this thread display your complete ignorance of the subject, as well as of science and statistics, and the latter's application to the real world.

Instead of continuing along this conspiracy theory of yours, how about wrangling your way into a hospital near you - wherever you live - which treats COVID-19 patients, and speaking to the doctors and nurses there about their experiences over the past eight months? Maybe, if you put on all the correct PPE, you might even be able to have a look inside a COVID ward (if it is not overflowing out into the corridors), and realize that this is not just a horror movie you can turn off with a switch.

BTW, I've been working in the front line ever since the start of the pandemic, and there have been times when the death toll and suffering - including among previously healthy people - have been utterly shocking. And I am used to the sight of blood and gore, as well as death, in my job.

Think of what it's like to be gasping for breath if you've never been ill enough to be hospitalized before, let alone unable to breathe properly, and be told that your pO2 level is dangerously low, and the only hope is to put you to sleep and ventilate you artificially.......and (though no-one says it explicitly) you realize that you have a less than 50:50 chance of ever waking up again.

That's the reality of COVID-19.


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The first personal acquaintance of mine to die of Covid-19 passed away in hospital last week, in London, in just the circumstances in your penultimate paragraph, bennevis.

Around my age (early 60s) and a strong man, Davy was the brother of a friend of mine. Always lively and a bright spark, he had got married just a few months ago. He was hospitalised, put in an induced coma and ventilated, but after a time his organs started to fail, and he died, despite the best medical attention and efforts.

Around 600 Health and Social Care workers are reckoned to have died from COvid-19 in the UK.

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I had lunch the other day with a department head of a local hospital along with 2 other doctors in others areas. Long time client of mine. Anyways I had a lot of questions so I asked. They explained how the term case has changed as well as what excess deaths mean. All the information is on the CDC website. Close contact was another thing we talked about. People don’t seem to know what that means.

Carefully read what the CDC says. It is there black and white. If you can not understand what they are talking about, I linked a video of a university talk that shows how to download the raw data gathered by the CDC and go through the data yourself without using the models and algorithms.


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LemonColor, you treat information like shiny baubles of data, when in fact they are nothing more than a distraction, a form of denial of this horror of death and suffering that the entire world will continue to endure until vaccines are widely distributed and begin to bring the numbers down.

I know people who have died from this virus. Your comments show a bloodless indifference.


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My aunt, grandfather, and best friend's father all died with covid in the last few weeks. It was shocking to everyone. We don't even get to have funerals. People deal with tragedy in different ways. Some of us want more information. The information we get is not always what we expect. A case is not an infection. High number of cases is not high number of extra deaths. These are all different things.


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Originally Posted by UnrightTooner
Originally Posted by LemonColor
Death rates in the US are unaffected in 2020 compared to previous years.

...

Not so, scroll down to the graph: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm

I am not going to look at much more you have to say unless you back it up with references.
This table seems a good news:
even the number of infection is increasing exponentially, but the number of death is still falling down.
It is actually similar to Jan 18 which was not a pandemic period, it means it is quite normal now.

For me the death/infection ratio is still going down. It will be milder than an ordinary seasonally flu.


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Originally Posted by zonzi
Originally Posted by UnrightTooner
Originally Posted by LemonColor
Death rates in the US are unaffected in 2020 compared to previous years.

...

Not so, scroll down to the graph: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm

I am not going to look at much more you have to say unless you back it up with references.
This table seems a good news:
even the number of infection is increasing exponentially, but the number of death is still falling down.
It is actually similar to Jan 18 which was not a pandemic period, it means it is quite normal now.

For me the death/infection ratio is still going down. It will be milder than an ordinary seasonally flu.


Not sure where you live. Deaths in US are climbing every week: yesterday it was 2,960 for the one day total. — over 11,000 globally. The number of hospitalized patients due to Covid in the US is around 100,000 and many ICUs are at capacity.

The impact of Covid is many times greater than seasonal flu— and it is not resolved.

Last edited by dogperson; 12/09/20 04:50 AM.

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Originally Posted by dogperson
The impact of Covid is many times greater than seasonal flu— and it is not resolved.

Indeed. People working in hospitals in badly affected areas say it's like nothing they've ever seen before. The culture of denial in some parts of the world is downright bizarre.

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Originally Posted by WilliamTruitt
LemonColor, you treat information like shiny baubles of data, when in fact they are nothing more than a distraction, a form of denial of this horror of death and suffering that the entire world will continue to endure until vaccines are widely distributed and begin to bring the numbers down.

I know people who have died from this virus. Your comments show a bloodless indifference.

Forgive me, William, if my springboarding off your comment seems as meant to disparage your passion. That is NOT my intent.

"... this horror of death and suffering that the entire world will continue to endure until vaccines are widely distributed and begin to bring the numbers down."

Myself, I see no difference in a person developing antibodies through infection or through vaccination except for timing and possible transmission to others. I am reminded of how smallpox was inoculated against in colonial times. A bit of pus from an infected person was deliberately applied to a cut of another. It worked by allowing the person to develop an immunity by receiving a small dose of the pathogen. Seems barbaric now, but was the height of technology then.

Surely as more people become infected and recover Herd Resistance will increase and benefit everyone. This homo sapiens species has been pretty successful through the millenniums. We are individually and collectively wise risk takers. (Argue if you want, but first look at the history of Hong Kong.) Right now old folks are staying home and younger folks are socializing. The result is more infections and cases, but proportionally fewer hospitalizations and deaths. Yes, some areas may become overwhelmed, but that is all part of this species' risk taking. Huh! Do any other animals have organized gambling?

Anyhoo, My Faith is not in the medical field nor in the political. It is in the Creator's wisdom in making humans as we are, individually and collectively.


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