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This article, A call to honesty in pandemic modeling, is discussed in the newspaper story, Pittsburgh professors see flaws in coronavirus modeling, predict more grim outlook.

Excerpt from the story:
Quote
Two Pittsburgh academics argue that much of the modeling regarding the trajectory of the covid-19 pandemic has been fundamentally flawed — and the real outlook for the disease is much more dismal.

Wesley Pegden and Maria Chikina have joined an international conversation about projections of how dire the covid-19 pandemic may become.

In a scathing analysis published March 29 on Medium, “A Call to Honesty in Pandemic Modeling,” Pegden and Chikina assert that many of the popular models being cited by national media and <potentially political thing deleted> are misleading. Pegden is an associate professor of mathematics at Carnegie Mellon University and Chikina is an assistant professor of molecular biology at the University of Pittsburgh; they are a married couple.

“The idea that normal life can resume in two to three months without having a huge wave in infections — there is just no science behind that,” Pegden said in a Tribune-Review interview.

Their research concludes that models claiming social distancing will flatten the curve in as little as two months are flawed. ...


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across the stone, deathless piano performances

"Discipline is more reliable than motivation." -by a contributor on Reddit r/piano
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From this article:

Quote
New federal guidelines are also expected soon on wearing face masks to help curb the spread of the virus, Trump said Thursday, adding that the guidance won't require all Americans to use face coverings.
"I don't think they'll be mandatory because some people don't want to do that," he said, adding that Americans who do want to wear face coverings can "decide for themselves."
Trump's announcement came a day after a panel of experts told the White House that research shows coronavirus can be spread not just by sneezes and coughs but also by talking and possibly breathing.
"While the current (coronavirus) specific research is limited, the results of available studies are consistent with aerosolization of virus from normal breathing," according to a letter written by Dr. Harvey Fineberg, chairman of a committee with the National Academy of Sciences.
Masks should not, however, replace social distancing, Fauci said on Fox News' "Fox & Friends" Friday morning.
"The most important thing is to keep this 6-foot physical distance from individuals," he said, adding he recognizes there are scenarios in which that's not possible.
"Because of some recent information that the virus can actually be spread even when people just speak as opposed to coughing and sneezing, the better part of valor is that when you're out and you can't maintain that 6-foot distance to wear some sort of facial covering," Fauci said.
"So, this is an addendum and an addition to the physical separation," he added, "not a substitute for it."


[Linked Image]
across the stone, deathless piano performances

"Discipline is more reliable than motivation." -by a contributor on Reddit r/piano
"Success is 10% inspiration, and 90% perspiration." -by some other wise person
"Pianoteq manages to keep it all together yet simultaneously also go in all directions; like a quantum particle entangled with an unknown and spooky parallel universe simply waiting to be discovered." -by Pete14
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This just happened 90 minutes ago:

NYT: "Wuhan, Where Coronavirus Emerged, Lifts Lockdown After 11 Weeks"

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Just after midnight on Wednesday, the city’s 11 million residents were free to leave their homes for the first time in more than 10 weeks, but must be tracked electronically.

The Chinese city of Wuhan, the birthplace of the coronavirus pandemic, lifted its lockdown on Wednesday, allowing 11 million residents to leave their homes without special authorization for the first time in more than 10 weeks.

(Again, the skeptical please note: This lifting of the lockdown in Wuhan would be totally insane as a purely political stunt and if someone authorized such political theater while in reality, COVID-19 was still secretly running rampant in Wuhan, they would likely lose their head... This is not to say that the Chinese Government always tells the truth - I'm not making such a claim. I'm only commenting on the "current" state of the virus in Wuhan, regardless of what the Chinese Government should specifically claim about it.)


[Linked Image]
across the stone, deathless piano performances

"Discipline is more reliable than motivation." -by a contributor on Reddit r/piano
"Success is 10% inspiration, and 90% perspiration." -by some other wise person
"Pianoteq manages to keep it all together yet simultaneously also go in all directions; like a quantum particle entangled with an unknown and spooky parallel universe simply waiting to be discovered." -by Pete14
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Tyrone - note the electron tagging, the pictures from Wuhan and read the Taiwan news for the unofficial death toll. Also what the residents have been told about the origin of the virus.


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Tyrone - also read this report.Wuhan


Yamaha U1A, Roland LX706

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Originally Posted by Colin Miles
Tyrone - also read this report.Wuhan

Colin didn't I just say that I am not saying that China doesn't lie? Wouldn't it be wonderful if they told the truth on everything? I'm just saying that there is evidence from their behavior that China has now gotten Wuhan under (what they think of) as control, regardless of what the actual numbers were at one time or even now. This behavioral evidence (i.e., lifting the lockdown) could be faked, but only by a madman.


[Linked Image]
across the stone, deathless piano performances

"Discipline is more reliable than motivation." -by a contributor on Reddit r/piano
"Success is 10% inspiration, and 90% perspiration." -by some other wise person
"Pianoteq manages to keep it all together yet simultaneously also go in all directions; like a quantum particle entangled with an unknown and spooky parallel universe simply waiting to be discovered." -by Pete14
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I think the truth lies somewhere between what China is saying and what Taiwan is saying lol!


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Originally Posted by Tyrone Slothrop
This just happened 90 minutes ago:

NYT: "Wuhan, Where Coronavirus Emerged, Lifts Lockdown After 11 Weeks"

Quote
Just after midnight on Wednesday, the city’s 11 million residents were free to leave their homes for the first time in more than 10 weeks, but must be tracked electronically.

The Chinese city of Wuhan, the birthplace of the coronavirus pandemic, lifted its lockdown on Wednesday, allowing 11 million residents to leave their homes without special authorization for the first time in more than 10 weeks.

(Again, the skeptical please note: This lifting of the lockdown in Wuhan would be totally insane as a purely political stunt and if someone authorized such political theater while in reality, COVID-19 was still secretly running rampant in Wuhan, they would likely lose their head... This is not to say that the Chinese Government always tells the truth - I'm not making such a claim. I'm only commenting on the "current" state of the virus in Wuhan, regardless of what the Chinese Government should specifically claim about it.)

Uh, yeah, about that:
Quote
Epidemiologists, U.S. intelligence sources and Wuhan residents suspect that Chinese authorities substantially undercounted infections and deaths over the past several months, especially in Wuhan, in part to boost President Xi Jinping’s image. Such doubts, combined with the reports of new asymptomatic cases, are triggering fears of a potential second wave of infections that could undermine Beijing’s claim to have tamed the virus.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/china-...t-remains-incomplete-11586293305?mod=mhp

As I suspected. An authoritarian government doesn't care how many of its own citizens are fed through the meat grinder. It just cares about maintaining power and control.

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On Tencent the 'true' numbers have been flashing up only to be quickly replaced by the official ones.


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Originally Posted by rmns2bseen
Uh, yeah, about that:
Quote
Epidemiologists, U.S. intelligence sources and Wuhan residents suspect that Chinese authorities substantially undercounted infections and deaths over the past several months, especially in Wuhan, in part to boost President Xi Jinping’s image. Such doubts, combined with the reports of new asymptomatic cases, are triggering fears of a potential second wave of infections that could undermine Beijing’s claim to have tamed the virus.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/china-...t-remains-incomplete-11586293305?mod=mhp

As I suspected. An authoritarian government doesn't care how many of its own citizens are fed through the meat grinder. It just cares about maintaining power and control.
Originally Posted by Colin Miles
On Tencent the 'true' numbers have been flashing up only to be quickly replaced by the official ones.

And perhaps the actual China numbers are 10x or 20x the reported numbers, but you are entirely missing my point. At least two people questioned my earlier posts about the infection in Wuhan being under control while nowhere in the West is it close to being under control yet. This is my point.

Even if the actual numbers are 100x that of what are reported, the Chinese do think they now have it under control.

I am not arguing the numbers. I am not arguing about whether or not China tells the truth. And I am not arguing China is a well-behaved democratic country that treats its people with respect (re: meat grinders). I am arguing that China has the infection in Wuhan under control, and I think that is becoming indisputable.

So the narrative must at least change. Those negative about China will need to slow their roll on whether China really has COVID-19 under control and switch over to claiming that it is now under control only because of their totalitarian system. wink (There, I've fed you some talking points for your next few posts. 🤣)


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across the stone, deathless piano performances

"Discipline is more reliable than motivation." -by a contributor on Reddit r/piano
"Success is 10% inspiration, and 90% perspiration." -by some other wise person
"Pianoteq manages to keep it all together yet simultaneously also go in all directions; like a quantum particle entangled with an unknown and spooky parallel universe simply waiting to be discovered." -by Pete14
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Originally Posted by Tyrone Slothrop

Even if the actual numbers are 100x that of what are reported, the Chinese do think they now have it under control.


I think your point is clear. If the whole thing were just for show, they could have avoided having any lockdown at all. They could have claimed to be the only country in the world without any virus cases, but they're not stupid.

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Maybe we should concentrate on how this epidemic could have been prevented by eradicating wet markets in China even after SARS outbreak many years ago. It's too late now but how about Chinese government finally showing that gruesome wet markets are now a thing from the past smile


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Originally Posted by Tyrone Slothrop
At least two people questioned my earlier posts about the infection in Wuhan being under control while nowhere in the West is it close to being under control yet. This is my point.

Even if the actual numbers are 100x that of what are reported, the Chinese do think they now have it under control.
How do you know it's "under control"?
Originally Posted by johnstaf
They could have claimed to be the only country in the world without any virus cases
They're getting close to doing just that. grin

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Originally Posted by rmns2bseen
Originally Posted by Tyrone Slothrop
At least two people questioned my earlier posts about the infection in Wuhan being under control while nowhere in the West is it close to being under control yet. This is my point.

Even if the actual numbers are 100x that of what are reported, the Chinese do think they now have it under control.
How do you know it's "under control"?

Not by listening to what they say, but by observing evidence such as the lifting of the 11-week lockdown on Wuhan.


[Linked Image]
across the stone, deathless piano performances

"Discipline is more reliable than motivation." -by a contributor on Reddit r/piano
"Success is 10% inspiration, and 90% perspiration." -by some other wise person
"Pianoteq manages to keep it all together yet simultaneously also go in all directions; like a quantum particle entangled with an unknown and spooky parallel universe simply waiting to be discovered." -by Pete14
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Originally Posted by johnstaf
They could have claimed to be the only country in the world without any virus cases

Hey, I thought that's North Korea! laugh laugh


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across the stone, deathless piano performances

"Discipline is more reliable than motivation." -by a contributor on Reddit r/piano
"Success is 10% inspiration, and 90% perspiration." -by some other wise person
"Pianoteq manages to keep it all together yet simultaneously also go in all directions; like a quantum particle entangled with an unknown and spooky parallel universe simply waiting to be discovered." -by Pete14
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Originally Posted by Tyrone Slothrop
Originally Posted by rmns2bseen
Originally Posted by Tyrone Slothrop
At least two people questioned my earlier posts about the infection in Wuhan being under control while nowhere in the West is it close to being under control yet. This is my point.

Even if the actual numbers are 100x that of what are reported, the Chinese do think they now have it under control.
How do you know it's "under control"?

Not by listening to what they say, but by observing evidence such as the lifting of the 11-week lockdown on Wuhan.

Did you even read either of the articles that were posted? And now there's another city, Suifenhe, that's under lockdown. And if the actual numbers are "100x" what's stated, that's hardly "under control".

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Originally Posted by rmns2bseen
Originally Posted by Tyrone Slothrop
Originally Posted by rmns2bseen
Originally Posted by Tyrone Slothrop
At least two people questioned my earlier posts about the infection in Wuhan being under control while nowhere in the West is it close to being under control yet. This is my point.

Even if the actual numbers are 100x that of what are reported, the Chinese do think they now have it under control.
How do you know it's "under control"?

Not by listening to what they say, but by observing evidence such as the lifting of the 11-week lockdown on Wuhan.

Did you even read either of the articles that were posted? And now there's another city, Suifenhe, that's under lockdown.

Yes. Bravo to the Chinese. I applaud every city they lock down - it shows they are really taking this virus seriously. And I think this also shows that they are not playing around with "lockdowns" for political theater, as some have speculated.

Originally Posted by rmns2bseen
And if the actual numbers are "100x" what's stated, that's hardly "under control".

It absolutely is (that is, what I said, which is that it's either under control or the Chinese think it's under control) if they feeling they can lift the lockdown. I am watching their behavior, not what they say. (Coming from China myself, I have a healthy skepticism about what the authorities there say, but it doesn't change what they do and the information their actions convey.)


[Linked Image]
across the stone, deathless piano performances

"Discipline is more reliable than motivation." -by a contributor on Reddit r/piano
"Success is 10% inspiration, and 90% perspiration." -by some other wise person
"Pianoteq manages to keep it all together yet simultaneously also go in all directions; like a quantum particle entangled with an unknown and spooky parallel universe simply waiting to be discovered." -by Pete14
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Originally Posted by Tyrone Slothrop
I am watching their behavior, not what they say.
Yeah, so am I. An article from on official Chinese newspaper stated that there could be 10k-20k asymptomatic infected people in Wuhan. That article was quickly sent down the memory hole. It *could* be that maybe, just maybe, China isn't as adept at testing as they'd like us to believe.

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Originally Posted by rmns2bseen
Originally Posted by Tyrone Slothrop
I am watching their behavior, not what they say.
Yeah, so am I. An article from on official Chinese newspaper stated that there could be 10k-20k asymptomatic infected people in Wuhan. That article was quickly sent down the memory hole.

And there could be. But the authorities clearly think it is under control or else they would never have lifted the lockdown on Wuhan. In the end, they could be wrong and be kicking themselves in a few months for lifting the Wuhan lockdown. In fact, we could all be wrong, We (I'm using the global we, here) don't have a handle on asymptomatic infections.


[Linked Image]
across the stone, deathless piano performances

"Discipline is more reliable than motivation." -by a contributor on Reddit r/piano
"Success is 10% inspiration, and 90% perspiration." -by some other wise person
"Pianoteq manages to keep it all together yet simultaneously also go in all directions; like a quantum particle entangled with an unknown and spooky parallel universe simply waiting to be discovered." -by Pete14
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Originally Posted by Tyrone Slothrop
But the authorities clearly think it is under control or else they would never have lifted the lockdown on Wuhan.
Yeah, the same authorities who were stating in mid-January that there was no evidence of human-to-human transmission. Doesn't mean jack sh*t. Pardon my skepticism.

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