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#59233 - 07/13/05 11:08 AM Simply HORRIFIC!  
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Steve Cohen Offline
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I opened up my July issue of Music Trades and happened to glance down and there, without any warning was one of the most horrifying images I've ever seen. It was a picture of Piano World members who tookk the Mason & Hamlin tour! eek

Look guys, if I want to upset by such ugly kinds of images I'll open up my local paper! eek

Also in Music Trades was a detailed article about the new Prambergers and Remingtons. Also VERY interesting statistic on imports of musical instruments into the USA. Copmpared to last year China is way down and you'll never guess who's up!

I'll start another thread when I get a chance.


Piano Industry Consultant- http://www.linkedin.com/pub/steve-cohen/6/b92/b80

Consultant & Contributing Editor - Acoustic & Digital Piano Buyer

Jasons Music
Maryland/DC/No. VA
Since 1937.

www.jasonsmusic.com
My postings, unless stated otherwise, are my personal opinions, not those of my clients.
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#59234 - 07/13/05 12:09 PM Re: Simply HORRIFIC!  
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ChatNoir Offline
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Quote
Originally posted by Steve Cohen:


Look guys, if I want to upset by such ugly kinds of images I'll open up my local paper!

Now listen here, we are SERIOUS musicians here, NOT some kind of beauty objects. And furthermore, beauty is only skin deep (though I suspect that some of us are born inside-out).
Maybe I'll join the next tour, that'll make pictures that will send your magazine flying!!

So what country is up in sales? Don't tell me it's Estonia..... laugh


Some men are music lovers. Others make love without it.
#59235 - 07/13/05 12:36 PM Re: Simply HORRIFIC!  
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Steve Cohen Offline
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Quote
Originally posted by ChatNoir:
So what country is up in sales? Don't tell me it's Estonia..... laugh
The question is what countries are up?

In verticals...China -45%; Japan + 70%; Indonesia + 214% eek ; Korea -7.2%.

In grands... China -14%; Japan + 12%; Indonesia +70%; Korea - 19.3%.

No stats on Europe.

Gee, isn't it about time for an Estonia dealer to bump-up or start a new post on how great Estonia's are? laugh


Piano Industry Consultant- http://www.linkedin.com/pub/steve-cohen/6/b92/b80

Consultant & Contributing Editor - Acoustic & Digital Piano Buyer

Jasons Music
Maryland/DC/No. VA
Since 1937.

www.jasonsmusic.com
My postings, unless stated otherwise, are my personal opinions, not those of my clients.
#59236 - 07/13/05 12:58 PM Re: Simply HORRIFIC!  
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Christopher P. Smith Offline
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I guess this should show everyone how well Yamaha and Kawai are doing in Japan and Indo.


Representing Yamaha, Story and Clark, and other fine instruments
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#59237 - 07/13/05 02:07 PM Re: Simply HORRIFIC!  
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Steve Cohen Offline
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Quote
Originally posted by Christopher P. Smith:
I guess this should show everyone how well Yamaha and Kawai are doing in Japan and Indo.
And/Or Samick.


Piano Industry Consultant- http://www.linkedin.com/pub/steve-cohen/6/b92/b80

Consultant & Contributing Editor - Acoustic & Digital Piano Buyer

Jasons Music
Maryland/DC/No. VA
Since 1937.

www.jasonsmusic.com
My postings, unless stated otherwise, are my personal opinions, not those of my clients.
#59238 - 07/13/05 02:10 PM Re: Simply HORRIFIC!  
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Christopher P. Smith Offline
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Pardon my ignorance.

What exactly is samick building in Japan now?


Representing Yamaha, Story and Clark, and other fine instruments
Menchey Music Service
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Serving Central Pennsylvania and the Greater Baltimore Area
#59239 - 07/13/05 02:15 PM Re: Simply HORRIFIC!  
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Steve Cohen Offline
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Nothing. But they have been building in Indonesia for over 20 years. They were the 1st, Yamaha and Kawai followed.


Piano Industry Consultant- http://www.linkedin.com/pub/steve-cohen/6/b92/b80

Consultant & Contributing Editor - Acoustic & Digital Piano Buyer

Jasons Music
Maryland/DC/No. VA
Since 1937.

www.jasonsmusic.com
My postings, unless stated otherwise, are my personal opinions, not those of my clients.
#59240 - 07/13/05 02:34 PM Re: Simply HORRIFIC!  
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mikhailoh Offline
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I thought their 7' K&C Millenium was pretty nice. Is it Korean or Indonesian built?


Michael

====

He is so solemn, detached and uninvolved he makes Mr. Spock look like Hunter S. Thompson at closing time.'
#59241 - 07/13/05 02:40 PM Re: Simply HORRIFIC!  
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Christopher P. Smith Offline
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Ah, sorry, I forgot that Indo was in this discussion. Pardon me again!

We have a Skg 530S K&C remaining in stock and its a sweet little piano. I love the touch of it, actually.


Representing Yamaha, Story and Clark, and other fine instruments
Menchey Music Service
Associate Member of PTG
Serving Central Pennsylvania and the Greater Baltimore Area
#59242 - 07/13/05 03:22 PM Re: Simply HORRIFIC!  
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ChatNoir Offline
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Quote
Originally posted by Steve Cohen:


Gee, isn't it about time for an Estonia dealer to bump-up or start a new post on how great Estonia's are? laugh

AAAAWWWW, you're just jealous. And the upswing from Asia must mean that more pianos are being purveyed for the impecunious.


Some men are music lovers. Others make love without it.
#59243 - 07/13/05 03:52 PM Re: Simply HORRIFIC!  
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teachum Offline
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Quote
Originally posted by Steve Cohen:
Quote
Originally posted by ChatNoir:
[b] So what country is up in sales? Don't tell me it's Estonia..... laugh
The question is what countries are up?

In verticals...China -45%; Japan + 70%; Indonesia + 214% eek ; Korea -7.2%.

In grands... China -14%; Japan + 12%; Indonesia +70%; Korea - 19.3%.

No stats on Europe.

Gee, isn't it about time for an Estonia dealer to bump-up or start a new post on how great Estonia's are? laugh [/b]
Well - I'm not a dealer, but everyone knows they are great! laugh laugh Why doesn't everyone just *get over it?*


You will be 10 years older, ten years from now, no matter what you do - so go for it!

Estonia #6141 in Satin Mahogany
#59244 - 07/13/05 05:49 PM Re: Simply HORRIFIC!  
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There were 388 pianos built in Estonia last year. At least, I think I read that somewhere. It is doubtful that the number of units imported into the US has changed one year to the next. The dollar value probably has gone up considerably.

Larry,

Good to see you back.

Does that mean that the pianos have been imported but may be unsold? That would change everything. For example, it could mean that there are many Japanese or Indonesian pianos sitting in stock, unsold. Or it could mean something else.

#59245 - 07/13/05 05:51 PM Re: Simply HORRIFIC!  
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And what about the figures from Europe?

#59246 - 07/13/05 06:33 PM Re: Simply HORRIFIC!  
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Does that mean that the pianos have been imported but may be unsold?

It means precisely that. Samicks imports the first part of last 2004 were pathetic. Any increase would appear dramatic. Also, the first quarter is when replacement stock is shipped in to replace what was sold during the busy Christmas season. Most of this inventory simply headed to the warehouse, and much of it is probably still sitting there.

China being "way down" for example could simply mean that they shipped a huge stock in prior to Dec. 31, and didn't need to restock much in the first quarter. The data was taken from US Customs records, not from industry sources, and only tracks where the units actually shipped from, not where they were manufactured. That means that any pianos that were built in China and shipped to Korea, then shipped to the US, would appear as coming from Korea. In other words, the data is useless.

Good to see you back.

Thank you. I appreciate that. But I'm not back. Someone called my attention to this bit of subtle spin, and I wanted to correct it.


Life isn't measured by the breaths you take. Life is measured by the things that left you breathless
#59247 - 07/13/05 07:03 PM Re: Simply HORRIFIC!  
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Thanks, Larry. I appreciate that you're "back" to whatever degree you are. It's amazing what can be done with a few statistics taken out of context and misinterpreted.


Aaron
#59248 - 07/13/05 07:59 PM Re: Simply HORRIFIC!  
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Eins Offline
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Statistics? I don't believe any unless I tweaked them myself laugh


One of the funny things about the stock market is that every time one person buys, another sells, and both think they are astute.
-William Feather
#59249 - 07/13/05 08:40 PM Re: Simply HORRIFIC!  
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Paul Y Offline
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In my humble opinion, the first quarter of a piano manufacturer is traditionally one of ho-hum statistics! Most dealers load up for the Holiday season, making the third and fourth quarters the largest of the year. Manufacturers are busy the first of the year wooing dealers at the NAMM (industry trade) Show. Then the second quarter picks up again shipping NAMM orders out! And the individual piano companies dictate this flow based on the previous year's business.

So, despite figures that would be eye-opening to the novice reader, not much can be read into the Music Trades posted statistics.

What designates "market shipments" is what is ordered. For instance, Yamaha Corporation of America (California) orders their units from Hammamatsu, Japan six months in advance. They may or may not order heavy for the first quarter. It depends on what was ordered/sold the previous year. And, the orders could come out of Japan or Indonesia (in the case of Yamaha).

So, these figures hold no water if one tries to convey that one country (or company) is doing well while another might be floundering. After all, it is only three months out of a full year. As the retail piano business goes, so goes the piano shipments!


Retired Industry Professional
#59250 - 07/13/05 09:05 PM Re: Simply HORRIFIC!  
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First, let me say that I agree about the admonition to be wary of stats, particularly when presented in year-to-year percentage comparisons. Not really possible to get a good view of the big picture, such as comparison between manufacturers/locations.

They still are, however, interesting from the perspective of seeing which countries are sending more pianos our way, comparing the *same* country year-to-year. Generally, business cycles in many industries are similar year-to-year, which is why same-quarter comparisons are often done. Once the change is identified, the next question is: why? Could be a long-term trend for a particular manufacturer, could be a geographic shift in the manufacturing base, could be due to an anomaly such as December product dumping.

Casting aspersions about Steve's intentions (by calling it "spin") is just goofy. He didn't state the stats in his original post--he was just happily pointing out that some PW members are now internationally recognizable and should be prepared to be mobbed when travelling. The stats were a response to a question, and it was just a minor oversight of the questioner's wording that implied these were sales stats(Steve stated these were import stats).

So let me ask a new question: anyone have any thoughts about why the changes, particularly with Chinese and Indonesian verticals?

#59251 - 07/14/05 10:49 PM Re: Simply HORRIFIC!  
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Alright folks, if you would like to present your interpretation of the statistics, fine -- but please do not insult the people who offers an interpretation different than yours. Please keep it civil.

Axtremus - Moderator

#59252 - 07/14/05 10:58 PM Re: Simply HORRIFIC!  
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Want to give us some info on the new Prmabergers? You know, on materials, action and the like. I can't find any information on them online, since the official website is not up.


1909 Briggs 6'2" Grand
#59253 - 07/15/05 12:35 PM Re: Simply HORRIFIC!  
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For clarification:

1. The statistics compare 1st quarter 2005 to 1st quarter 2004 and have nothing to do with 4th quarter imports.

2. NO Prambergers were imported from Indonesia until after the 1st quarter of 2005, so claims that I was backhandedly promoting Pramberger are false.

I simply was surprised that China was not growing as fast, that Indonesia WAS grtowing fast (although I can see that Kawai's move of production would be a major factor) and that Japanese imports were rising when I thought they would be falling.

It is difficult to contribute to discussions here when they invariably lead to attacks.


Piano Industry Consultant- http://www.linkedin.com/pub/steve-cohen/6/b92/b80

Consultant & Contributing Editor - Acoustic & Digital Piano Buyer

Jasons Music
Maryland/DC/No. VA
Since 1937.

www.jasonsmusic.com
My postings, unless stated otherwise, are my personal opinions, not those of my clients.
#59254 - 07/15/05 01:14 PM Re: Simply HORRIFIC!  
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Larry Offline
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No one attacked you, Steve. I merely corrected the information.


Life isn't measured by the breaths you take. Life is measured by the things that left you breathless
#59255 - 07/15/05 01:33 PM Re: Simply HORRIFIC!  
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Paul Y Offline
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Steve,

Thanks for your on-going input into this forum and on this subject. I enjoyed your statistic listing on the initial post and ran to the office here and got the issue of Music Trades so I could take a look at it all. Thanks for the heads-up.

I, too, know that statistics can be taken out of context. But looking at the numbers can be interesting to say the least. However, I just knew there would be those lurking-in-wait that would attempt to poke holes in anything you post! It's too bad one cannot mention a brand name without being accused of advertising. In fact, I have taken the brand names off of my posted information. It just lists my experience, not what brands we represent!

Anyway, keep up the interesting posts! Always enjoy your thoughts...and "don't let the turkeys get you down"!


Retired Industry Professional
#59256 - 07/15/05 02:28 PM Re: Simply HORRIFIC!  
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Steve Cohen Offline
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Quote
Originally posted by Larry:
No one attacked you, Steve. I merely corrected the information.
Oh? Here's my post. Just what information here needed to be "corrected"?

Quote
Originally posted by Steve Cohen:
Quote
Originally posted by ChatNoir:
[b] So what country is up in sales? Don't tell me it's Estonia..... laugh
The question is what countries are up?

In verticals...China -45%; Japan + 70%; Indonesia + 214% eek ; Korea -7.2%.

In grands... China -14%; Japan + 12%; Indonesia +70%; Korea - 19.3%.

No stats on Europe.

laugh [/b]


Piano Industry Consultant- http://www.linkedin.com/pub/steve-cohen/6/b92/b80

Consultant & Contributing Editor - Acoustic & Digital Piano Buyer

Jasons Music
Maryland/DC/No. VA
Since 1937.

www.jasonsmusic.com
My postings, unless stated otherwise, are my personal opinions, not those of my clients.
#59257 - 07/16/05 02:15 AM Re: Simply HORRIFIC!  
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Even this green pea can answer that one:

Black Cat's question was for sales. You answered with shipments.


One of the funny things about the stock market is that every time one person buys, another sells, and both think they are astute.
-William Feather

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