5 years later....
This thread stuck with me, in the back of my mind and I remembered the prognostication about my daughter's future. She is 12 now - (sorry I missed the 10 year mark) - and continues to practice avidly. Before COVID-19 shut down all concertizing, she soloed with our regional community orchestra, the youngest in their long history.
Talent? What is that anyway? So much has been studied and published about the systematic development of ability in different fields, including music. Genetics? - yes. But more so, effort and time.
In any case, I can just say from my own experiences, beginning small children (she was 3) needn't be a hopeless task, one full of torture for parent, teacher, or child. Of the children who started in her peer group, I'd estimate that at least half continue to play. But at age 3, she had no idea what playing the instrument would entail. Did we just get lucky and found the right interest to pursue? Or do we have the order wrong - that interest follows, not precedes, the pursuing, at least in children that young?
Congratulations to you and your child. I went back to the original conversation. The instrument your child started on was violin. Children do start younger on violin than they do on piano - I've heard of 4 and 5, rarely 3 but even 3. I think that's different than piano.
I've watched this little girl (4) more than once. She seems to delight in what she's doing. Of course now she's a young lady, and still playing.https://www.youtube.com/watch?reload=9&v=PQGVW2l5708&ab_channel=LeilaWarren