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Re: Hybrid Pianos to drive industry growth in 2020 forward?
Pete14 #2982306 05/21/20 06:28 PM
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Originally Posted by Pete14
BTW, when you’re done with your NV-10, I’d be happy to take it from your hands if the price is right. smile

Oh, price? I didn't even think about selling it. Come 2023 I was just going to toss it into a dumpster.


Yamaha P-85, P-105, CP50, Kawai MP11 || Kawai NV-10
Re: Hybrid Pianos to drive industry growth in 2020 forward?
Gombessa #2982307 05/21/20 06:33 PM
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Surely, you meant to say 2123? I can see the NV-10 going strong for decades and decades.
(They did fix the flying hammers problem, right?)

Re: Hybrid Pianos to drive industry growth in 2020 forward?
Gombessa #2982309 05/21/20 06:43 PM
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The Technavio site offers a free 14 day trial subscription on their homepage, I wonder if you could use this to read the report?


Now learning: Chopin C# minor Nocturne (posth) and C minor Prelude (big chords), Mozart Sonata in C K. 545
Instruments: Yamaha N1X, Kawai ES110, Roland GO:PIANO
Re: Hybrid Pianos to drive industry growth in 2020 forward?
TomLC #2982313 05/21/20 07:01 PM
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Originally Posted by TomLC
You're probably right. But thanks to VST’s, I can’t see any reason to buy another piano. Unless, circumstances changed to allow for a grand. But even then, I would buy one with a silent system allowing me to play whenever the mood strikes. So it would still be a hybrid. cool

I’d like to see the very best VSTs in a plug & play box, as clutter-free as possible. Having tried pianoteq, I rather liked it (apart from having to hook up my Mac with a USB/MIDI cable and then back out to the line-in on the piano). Still inexperienced as a pianist, however I still appreciated it.

(again, cost might be disproportional to the realistic life of the product?)


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Re: Hybrid Pianos to drive industry growth in 2020 forward?
Gombessa #2982317 05/21/20 07:28 PM
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I begin to think that someone got taken to the cleaners when paying for that report.

Things like this ...
Quote
- piano market and it is poised to grow by USD 267.33 million during 2020-2024
- the demand of hybrid pianos (undefined) will offer immense growth opportunities.
... are meaningless.

I could say that I am poised to be a multi-billionaire during 2020-2024. It aint gonna happen, but neither the piano "poise" nor mine are promises. They're not even expectations. They're just "bait".

I could say that "fill-in-the-blank-with-anything-you-choose" will offer immense growth opportunities. Perhaps I might fill in that blank with "colonizing Jupiter". The opportunity exists, right? But so what?

Maybe there's much more that report than has been shown here? But what has appeared is just lip jabber.

Re: Hybrid Pianos to drive industry growth in 2020 forward?
Pete14 #2982358 05/22/20 01:18 AM
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Originally Posted by Gombessa
This is a really good point that gets very little airtime here. I'm fortunate enough to afford a hybrid, but there's no way I'm considering it my "lifetime piano." In fact, I'll probably keep it as long as a typical high-end digital owner keeps their CLP-675 (maybe a bit longer with a VST).

My general expectation would be that entry level digitals might work well for 5 years, and still be functional for about 10 albeit with some clackety keys or the need for maybe a minor repair. Midlevel stuff, maybe the same concept multiplied by two. But, if I'm paying big time money (tee tee) for a hybrid, I want it to have a reliable 15-20 year lifespan, or the value equation just isn't there for me, given the price of admission. And I say that in earnest as a person who's considering selling a high-end but low-use tall, European vertical piano and replacing it with a hybrid digital.

Originally Posted by Pete14
I don’t buy this notion that ‘Spirio is driving new Steinway sales’. There’s nothing new to see there (other than keys mysteriously moving on their own)... Of course, Steinway claims that no other player-piano plays like the Spirio, but I’m still waiting for the data supporting this claim.

Well, I actually visit dealers often and talk to them, distributors, customers who are shopping, and sometimes folks at the factory level. Spirio sales are a significant percentage of S&S' new grand piano sales over the past 3-4 years, and their dealers tend to stock at least one on their floor at any given time. The other significant portion of their sales is the institutional market, which has been a big chunk of model B and D sales, historically.

Originally Posted by Pete14
Oh, so Steinway is forcing the Spirio on their customers. That’s so Steinway!

Wrong again. It's a significant extra cost option on the model M, B, or D. The Spirio R with recording capability applies only to specifically equipped model B and D pianos of the latest evolution of the system. At most Steinway dealers I've visited you can easily select a non-Spirio model S, M, O, A, or B from floor stock, or do the typical selection of a regular model B or D at the factory.


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Re: Hybrid Pianos to drive industry growth in 2020 forward?
Gombessa #2982364 05/22/20 02:06 AM
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The article does not distinguish the types of hybrids. I’m assuming they’re are referring to vertical acoustic pianos with a silent mode, midi sensor, and digital sound engine, and not pianos like the AvantGrand or NV10.

These research articles are prepared by people with a background in finance, and are targeted at institutional investors, venture capitalists, etc. There likely was no input from anyone with musical training.


My chronological list of the top 20 composers: Bach, Handel, Haydn, Mozart, Beethoven, Schubert, Mendelssohn, Chopin, Schumann, Wagner, Verdi, Brahms, Dvorak, Tchaikovsky, Mahler, Debussy, Bartok, Stravinsky, Prokofiev, Shostakovich.
Re: Hybrid Pianos to drive industry growth in 2020 forward?
terminaldegree #2982472 05/22/20 11:23 AM
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Originally Posted by terminaldegree
My general expectation would be that entry level digitals might work well for 5 years, and still be functional for about 10 albeit with some clackety keys or the need for maybe a minor repair. Midlevel stuff, maybe the same concept multiplied by two. But, if I'm paying big time money (tee tee) for a hybrid, I want it to have a reliable 15-20 year lifespan, or the value equation just isn't there for me, given the price of admission. And I say that in earnest as a person who's considering selling a high-end but low-use tall, European vertical piano and replacing it with a hybrid digital.
I know what you mean, especially when compared to what you can get in an acoustic for the same price. But, you can't ignore the depreciation of technology. Even if the digital lasts 15 years (and it can), it will have been surpassed by something better and cheaper far sooner than that.

Also, the GranTouch and AGs have been out for over a decade or two now, and we can see how long they they realistically last. It seems like indeed they continue to function for that long, but when you look at the 32MB looped samples in the GT, do you really care that it still works (other than as a MIDI controller)? It's a fact of life that the digital goes obsolete long before an acoustic wears out. You are paying for the advantages of digital, not the longevity.


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Re: Hybrid Pianos to drive industry growth in 2020 forward?
Gombessa #2982481 05/22/20 12:05 PM
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Very good point. And, of course this is mitigated somewhat on the other side by the maintenance cost of owning an acoustic piano. If you spent $125 to service a piano once a year, over 20 years that’s $2,500.


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Re: Hybrid Pianos to drive industry growth in 2020 forward?
Gombessa #2982549 05/22/20 04:25 PM
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But to put that $2500 into a digital instrument nobody is going to give you a zero interest loan to pay it out over 20 years. The present value cost of those servicings over 20 years at the start of the 20-year period is significantly less than $2500, and still less if you correct for inflation over the 20 years.

I think lowest overall cost of ownership likely is to buy a used acoustic piano.

An interesting question is what hybrid technology does to the depreciation of a silent hybrid piano. If you buy a Yamaha YUS-5 and YUS-5 SH2 on the same date. In 20 years, what will be their relative values? Will the obsolete digital sound engine in the silent model still add residual value over the pure acoustic, or will the market view it as detrimental extra baggage?


My chronological list of the top 20 composers: Bach, Handel, Haydn, Mozart, Beethoven, Schubert, Mendelssohn, Chopin, Schumann, Wagner, Verdi, Brahms, Dvorak, Tchaikovsky, Mahler, Debussy, Bartok, Stravinsky, Prokofiev, Shostakovich.
Re: Hybrid Pianos to drive industry growth in 2020 forward?
Sweelinck #2982556 05/22/20 04:45 PM
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Originally Posted by Sweelinck
In 20 years, what will be their relative values? Will the obsolete digital sound engine in the silent model still add residual value over the pure acoustic, or will the market view it as detrimental extra baggage?

Personally, I wouldn't offer any more for the digital system built in...maybe a couple hundred extra for the convenience of having MIDI...


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Re: Hybrid Pianos to drive industry growth in 2020 forward?
Gombessa #2982565 05/22/20 05:07 PM
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In twenty years we can only imagine where technology will be. At my age I am simply amazed at what we have now. This is a hobby like buying a boat or joining a golf club. But over a 20 year time frame it’s a cheap hobby. If I pay $25K for a GL30 ATX3 and play it for 20 years? Or get a Yamaha TA for twice the price. Maybe even use some VST’s, as they will surely get better? The long term cost is actually negligible. IMHO...../)


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Re: Hybrid Pianos to drive industry growth in 2020 forward?
Gombessa #2982566 05/22/20 05:09 PM
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I don’t think the correction of the inflation matters. Ok, the present value of the service is reduced by the inflation, but because of the inflation, the $125 service fee of today will cost more in a few years.... then you should add the inflation to have the tomorrow fee and reduced this fee by the inflation to get the present value.

The present value of a $2500 DP paid now is $2500, but the present value of an acoustic piano and its service depends of the interest rate you consider. If you consider the $2500 required by the services available now and put in low risk placement, the present value will be near $2500. (In France thus typical rate is 0.5%). If you use higher risk placement, the interest rate will probably higher, but there is no warranty (I was happy with my shares... before the coranavirus krach).

About the technology, I think there is a diminishing returns. An SH2 option is already quite good enough and won’t get worse when the SH3 will come. However I don’t know how many time Yamaha or Kawai keep spare parts needed to repair a Silent. I plan to buy an hybrid N1X, but if I have to buy a new one in 15 years, I won’t be surprised. Then I will not buy it to spare more money, but to be able to play with headphones.


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Re: Hybrid Pianos to drive industry growth in 2020 forward?
Gombessa #2982574 05/22/20 05:24 PM
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I was just going to add: the cost of my NV10, Jansen bench, plus VST’s, lessons. All combined cost far less than one year of dues at the golf club I recently left. Plus you pay the price of a nice grand to join in the first place and an exit fee to leave. My point is; get the piano with the silent option and don’t worry about how much you can sell it for in 5, 10, 15 years. It’s a hobby.


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Re: Hybrid Pianos to drive industry growth in 2020 forward?
Gombessa #2982577 05/22/20 05:27 PM
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20 years ago digital pianos were almost exactly the same. Nothing really happened. Since we discuss “hybrid”, 20 years ago we had Yamaha GranTouch, pretty much the same as a modern AG or NV10 smile


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Re: Hybrid Pianos to drive industry growth in 2020 forward?
Gombessa #2982595 05/22/20 06:34 PM
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I think $125 per year is a bit slim for maintenance of an acoustic. That'll cover one tuning ... maybe. I'm thinking that two tunings per year is a minimum. And $125 might not be enough in some areas. Anyway, $250 times 20 years is $5000. And ... to take up Frederic's point ... the tunings will cost more than $5000 over 20 years because of inflation.

On the other side of the fence, even a digital will need maintenance. I've put in nearly $500 maintenance over 12 years. (It would have been several hundred more had I not learned to do some of the repairs myself.)

But acoustics also need maintenance (aside from tuning), so it's a balance. Both kinds of piano will eat some of my money.

I think that most of the difference is in the tuning.

Re: Hybrid Pianos to drive industry growth in 2020 forward?
Gombessa #2982611 05/22/20 07:12 PM
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This is a fascinating thread. As a recent acoustic purchaser, i thought long and hard about lifetime maintenance costs before plunging down the cash. One other cost i haven't seen anyone mention so far is piano moving costs. It cost me $400 to get my K300 delivered up 2 flights of stairs to my apartment. That high delivery cost actually almost broke the deal. I haven't moved from my apartment in like 4 years but if i was a constant mover, the moving costs would add up significantly. Granted hybrid pianos are also quite heavy so will also incur the same moving costs.

On the other hand, one thing that sweetened the deal was the lifetime full value trade-in for my K300. This offer according to my dealer was not available for digitals, hybrid or not.


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Re: Hybrid Pianos to drive industry growth in 2020 forward?
MacMacMac #2982630 05/22/20 09:02 PM
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Originally Posted by MacMacMac
I think $125 per year is a bit slim for maintenance of an acoustic. That'll cover one tuning ... maybe. I'm thinking that two tunings per year is a minimum. And $125 might not be enough in some areas. Anyway, $250 times 20 years is $5000. And ... to take up Frederic's point ... the tunings will cost more than $5000 over 20 years because of inflation.

On the other side of the fence, even a digital will need maintenance. I've put in nearly $500 maintenance over 12 years. (It would have been several hundred more had I not learned to do some of the repairs myself.)

But acoustics also need maintenance (aside from tuning), so it's a balance. Both kinds of piano will eat some of my money.

I think that most of the difference is in the tuning.
It depends on area. Where I live a full service by an RPT is about $150 these days. Once per year is required. I like to have my piano serviced twice a year, but it is not required.

My main issue with digital pianos is that the best ones are put in large furniture cases despite rapid obsolescence by furniture standards. This is a big waste of resources to dispose of that every 10 years, wasted cost aside.


My chronological list of the top 20 composers: Bach, Handel, Haydn, Mozart, Beethoven, Schubert, Mendelssohn, Chopin, Schumann, Wagner, Verdi, Brahms, Dvorak, Tchaikovsky, Mahler, Debussy, Bartok, Stravinsky, Prokofiev, Shostakovich.
Re: Hybrid Pianos to drive industry growth in 2020 forward?
Sweelinck #2982633 05/22/20 09:13 PM
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There really is no choice for me. I want a piano that looks like a piano. A slab won't do it.
Originally Posted by Sweelinck
My main issue with digital pianos is that the best ones are put in large furniture cases despite rapid obsolescence by furniture standards. This is a big waste of resources to dispose of that every 10 years, wasted cost aside.
I don't understand you point about furniture obsolescence. Classic furniture doesn't go out of style in this house.

As for tuning ... when I had a Kawai upright twice a year tuning was minimum. It went wildly out of tune in November every year, then again in the spring. In between it sometimes needed tuning. So two per year was bare minimum. If I were a more active pianist I'd probably need four per year.

Re: Hybrid Pianos to drive industry growth in 2020 forward?
Gombessa #2982636 05/22/20 09:29 PM
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I’m talking about what a typical owner does for a maintenance regimen. Which is maybe one tuning per year. A significant percentage of pianos techs service haven’t been tuned even that little.


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