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Masks that cover the mouth and nose are good, but it's my understanding that inhalation isn't the only route of infection. If you touch an infected surface, and then touch your eyes (not the eyeball itself, but the lids, especially the moist inner lids), you can transfer virus and that virus can then enter the body. The virus isn't confined to the lungs. The lungs, however, are very susceptible to damage from the virus.


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Originally Posted by P W Grey
Originally Posted by gwing
Originally Posted by swiss_boy
Quote
Okay, everything I said is rubbish.

Pwg

With due respect: Yes, indeed. Not totally rubbish, but close to.
There is an inadmissable amount of simplification in your statements (to say it in a gentle way).

As I chucked the dirt I'll give some support as well. It wasn't totally rubbish and there was sense there e.g. there is a lot to be worried about, it won't go away or be got rid of easily, mutations *might* limit the immunity time from vaccines or previous infection etc. etc.

Peace?

Certainly, no hard feelings here. I was simply quoting (in my own words) what numerous respected health professionals have warned about. If you Google "will covid 19 go away" you will find much (maybe not all) of this.

Dr. Anthony Fauci said that this sort of thing is precisely what has kept him awake at night for several years. He of course carefully words his public comments (If he came right out and said exactly what he thinks I suspect he would not have his position anymore) for obvious reasons.

Yes SARS "went away" as did polio and bubonic plague (look that one up for an eye-opener...did you know it's still around?) Covid 19 is in the same "family" as SARS though not the same (obviously). It is considered more infectious than SARS, making it harder to "eradicate". .....
Dr. Fauci is right to express worry that it won't go away. He would also be the first to say that he doesn't know if it will or not. Nobody can know at this point.

SARS and MERS went away without the benefit of a vaccine or other treatment.

Bubonic plague and polio were never believed to be 'gone.' In an ideal world they could be eradicated through vaccination of everyone on the planet, but that is a tall order. At best, they are kept at bay with rigorous vaccination programs.


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Bubonic plague is still around. Prairie Dogs and pack rats get the fleas which bite humans and they either get bubonic form or pneumonia form. In the Southwest region. The Black Plague raged across Europe and parts of Asia because there were no sewer systems and rats carrying those fleas ran everywhere. Those same rats invaded every ship that sailed. Thankfully for most of us, our understanding of viruses, good hygiene, sanitation, sanitization, and the means to self isolation is far better than in 1347
France or Italy. Those exact same things can be said about the 1918 Spanish Flu. I’m not sitting in a muddy trench fighting rats for my rations.

All of this says modeling for COVID19 varies wildly. Plus, how long can any economy last if much of business is shuttered? Not keeping businesses closed long enough is dangerous but keeping it closed too long will bankrupt many. I was wrong before but I’d bet this has a huge impact on most every economy and therefore the piano market. I pray every day about this. I don’t believe panic, fear, and political haggling will do anything but harm. Our ancestors gave us incredible, vibrant immune system and our medical experts are light years ahead of where we were even a few years back. I am and remain hopeful.

Last edited by j&j; 04/22/20 06:30 PM.

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Oh my god! Reading what you guys all have to say, the US and UK must be looking absolutely apocalyptic now! Are you sure your countries will still exist on the other side of this? Should we outposts start a new local forum, when there's no one to run this one? as the the bulk of the conversations are from the axis of the world, ie you guys.
It would be nice when all this is over for us outlying species to still have somewhere overseas to holiday smile

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Originally Posted by j&j
The Black Plague raged across Europe and parts of Asia because there were no sewer systems and rats carrying those fleas ran everywhere.
It was greatly compounded by a nonsensical edict issued by a Bishop who felt that cats were evil. After the cat population was largely decimated, the rat population exploded and the Plague ensued.
Originally Posted by j&j
Those exact same things can be said about the 1918 Spanish Flu.
The initial wave of the Spanish Flu in spring 1918 was relatively mild. It returned in the fall, as a much more virulent form, and that caused the most death and devastation. I'm praying that this COV-2 virus doesn't do the same.

Originally Posted by j&j
All of this says modeling for COVID19 varies wildly. Plus, how long can any economy last if much of business is shuttered? Not keeping businesses closed long enough is dangerous but keeping it closed too long will bankrupt many.
It seems Sweden is doing well, without shutting everything down. Perhaps if we continue isolation for the most vulnerable populations, then allow most people to return to work, we can still avoid high death rates.


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Originally Posted by MarianneØ
Originally Posted by j&j
The Black Plague raged across Europe and parts of Asia because there were no sewer systems and rats carrying those fleas ran everywhere.
It was greatly compounded by a nonsensical edict issued by a Bishop who felt that cats were evil. After the cat population was largely decimated, the rat population exploded and the Plague ensued.
Originally Posted by j&j
Those exact same things can be said about the 1918 Spanish Flu.
The initial wave of the Spanish Flu in spring 1918 was relatively mild. It returned in the fall, as a much more virulent form, and that caused the most death and devastation. I'm praying that this COV-2 virus doesn't do the same.

As are we all. Hopefully there won't be a second wave at all, if there is I think the odds are with us a bit in that subsequent waves would more likely be better adapted and less virulent than the first rather than the other way around. No guarantees though.

Originally Posted by MarianneØ
Originally Posted by j&j
All of this says modeling for COVID19 varies wildly. Plus, how long can any economy last if much of business is shuttered? Not keeping businesses closed long enough is dangerous but keeping it closed too long will bankrupt many.
It seems Sweden is doing well, without shutting everything down. Perhaps if we continue isolation for the most vulnerable populations, then allow most people to return to work, we can still avoid high death rates.

Sweden has indeed being doing remarkably well, possibly helped by their low population densities and culture, but it does seem that unfortunately things are deteriorating a bit now and they might be going for stronger isolation measures. South Korea probably remains the best example to quote for a country doing a stellar job in containing the virus.

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We all hope the next round of Covid 19, if it happens, will be less virulent. It is not, however, the estimation of health experts in the US.


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Originally Posted by gwing
Originally Posted by MarianneØ
Originally Posted by j&j
The Black Plague raged across Europe and parts of Asia because there were no sewer systems and rats carrying those fleas ran everywhere.
It was greatly compounded by a nonsensical edict issued by a Bishop who felt that cats were evil. After the cat population was largely decimated, the rat population exploded and the Plague ensued.
Originally Posted by j&j
Those exact same things can be said about the 1918 Spanish Flu.
The initial wave of the Spanish Flu in spring 1918 was relatively mild. It returned in the fall, as a much more virulent form, and that caused the most death and devastation. I'm praying that this COV-2 virus doesn't do the same.

As are we all. Hopefully there won't be a second wave at all, if there is I think the odds are with us a bit in that subsequent waves would more likely be better adapted and less virulent than the first rather than the other way around. No guarantees though.

Originally Posted by MarianneØ
Originally Posted by j&j
All of this says modeling for COVID19 varies wildly. Plus, how long can any economy last if much of business is shuttered? Not keeping businesses closed long enough is dangerous but keeping it closed too long will bankrupt many.
It seems Sweden is doing well, without shutting everything down. Perhaps if we continue isolation for the most vulnerable populations, then allow most people to return to work, we can still avoid high death rates.

Sweden has indeed being doing remarkably well, possibly helped by their low population densities and culture, but it does seem that unfortunately things are deteriorating a bit now and they might be going for stronger isolation measures. South Korea probably remains the best example to quote for a country doing a stellar job in containing the virus.

Sweden is not doing well at all, it's doing far worse than all the other nordic countries. A glance at the data shows that they are not coming down in cases, like most of Europe at this point, but continue to see spikes, up and down, because of their lax policy. They've had their highest number of deaths in the last 2 days. Their number of deaths per million is much higher than surrounding countries. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/sweden/

https://www.businessinsider.com/how-sweden-and-norway-handled-coronavirus-differently-2020-4


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Originally Posted by Deltajockey
Oh my god! Reading what you guys all have to say, the US and UK must be looking absolutely apocalyptic now! Are you sure your countries will still exist on the other side of this? Should we outposts start a new local forum, when there's no one to run this one? as the the bulk of the conversations are from the axis of the world, ie you guys.
It would be nice when all this is over for us outlying species to still have somewhere overseas to holiday smile
Our area of the US has very few cases. They have kept us closed for 25 active cases, in an area of over 450,000. People are financially devistated.

We have had 27 people hospitalized SINCE THE BEGINNING and we have over 1,800 beds available.

They said they were closing things to lower and extend the peak. Our hospitals are nearly empty and doctors, mid levels and nurses are being layed off. Some have had their pay cut by 50%!

When you tell people this, many refuse to believe it. Local people are on the internet saying they are praying for nurses. They dont realize that the nurses on the covid floor (and others)are being called off from work. They simply will not believe it. Many hospitals have no covid patients.

It is strange that I see nurses and some admin position people posting pictures of them wearing masks and saying they are on the front lines, etc. They make it look like a war zone and people are afraid to go to the hospital, when their hospital is almost empty.

The hospitals/cities (here) prepared for massive surges that never came. Now some hospitals are on the brink of financial failure.

At first people complained that no one was staying home like they were supposed to. Then, when a surge never came, they said isolation was working. I went to Lowes the other day and it was packed! People were lined up on the aisles and you couldnt walk on the main front aisle without great difficulty. Home Depot is the same. Everyone is ordering carry out food(exposure).

We all go to the same grocery stores and deal with the same employees. Can you imagine the exposure that the store/employees have?

When you dare to say these things, half the people say you want everyone to die or they start talking about your family dying.

Now we are scheduled to reopen and 1/2 the people are excited, while the other 1/2 are terrified. The fear is strong.

From my understanding, the goal was never to keep the peak this low. The goal was to keep hospitals from being overwhelmed. These closures have a high price.

Btw, NYC has 2 million more people than our entire state, which takes 10 hours to drive across! When you see numbers from NYC, you have to remember that it is an entirely different world from most of the US.

NYC probably has 150+ deaths on an ordinary day. They have 8 million+ vs Swedens 10 million+. NYC is as populated as some countries.

If I wanted a piano tuning, in my area, I would call the guy and have him come out with no concern.

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Originally Posted by Deltajockey
Oh my god! Reading what you guys all have to say, the US and UK must be looking absolutely apocalyptic now! Are you sure your countries will still exist on the other side of this? Should we outposts start a new local forum, when there's no one to run this one? as the the bulk of the conversations are from the axis of the world, ie you guys.
It would be nice when all this is over for us outlying species to still have somewhere overseas to holiday smile

Actually it is quite the opposite from apocalyptic here in the UK, at least where I live. It is strange but, although there are worries, there is a great calmness and more folks are out enjoying nature, the sun and walks for their daily exercise than I have ever seen before - although they keep their social distance etc. It is a time for reflection and, as a gross generalization, the people here do seem calmer, more thoughtful, and happier than before.

Plainly that doesn't apply to those going through personal tragedies nor in the front line medical services, and different areas of the country will be different as Jack also points out for areas of the US. I suspect that the same solution and rules won't be optimum for all areas of the US, just like we have different strategies for devolved regions of the UK, and I believe that different states (and cities?) have their own local control of how they respond to and control the virus ?

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Originally Posted by gwing
Originally Posted by Deltajockey
Oh my god! Reading what you guys all have to say, the US and UK must be looking absolutely apocalyptic now! Are you sure your countries will still exist on the other side of this? Should we outposts start a new local forum, when there's no one to run this one? as the the bulk of the conversations are from the axis of the world, ie you guys.
It would be nice when all this is over for us outlying species to still have somewhere overseas to holiday smile

Actually it is quite the opposite from apocalyptic here in the UK, at least where I live. It is strange but, although there are worries, there is a great calmness and more folks are out enjoying nature, the sun and walks for their daily exercise than I have ever seen before - although they keep their social distance etc. It is a time for reflection and, as a gross generalization, the people here do seem calmer, more thoughtful, and happier than before.

Plainly that doesn't apply to those going through personal tragedies nor in the front line medical services, and different areas of the country will be different as Jack also points out for areas of the US. I suspect that the same solution and rules won't be optimum for all areas of the US, just like we have different strategies for devolved regions of the UK, and I believe that different states (and cities?) have their own local control of how they respond to and control the virus ?

I have seen some of the same. Our neighborhood is full of people out walking, riding bikes, etc. It reminds me of my childhood in the 80's. Things seem simpler.

I feel like most places here are being controlled in the same fashion, regardless of the number of infections.

This concerns me, because if it got bad later, we would start off in a financially depleted sfatus.

My paycheck is very safe. My wife is medical, but her area wouldn't be quick to go, but so many people are suffering here with no justification. People are losing everything they've worked for.

Luckily, it will magically be safe to reopen things in 7 days. In 6 days it will be too dangerous, but 24 short hours later it will be perfect.

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I just wish it would be perfect in 7or 6 days or 24 hrs.....
What can I say ,except where would we be without optimists like yourself ?

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Jack and Gwing....thanks for balancing the picture for me. I have long felt also that the media's representation of this whole affair seems worse than the virus itself, and contributes to stressing me out. There are certain similarities here in Australia, Jack. The economic fallout has been far worse than the health impact. Our hospitals are ready to cope with an onslaught which hasn't eventuated, and the government is reluctant to be complacent in case it gets out of control, so restrictions will be in place for a little while longer. Some hospitals are also abnormally very quiet, as people with conventional ailments are avoiding going there too, and they are telling people not to risk worsening strokes and heart attacks by delaying going to hospital. Not surprisingly, road and other trauma accidents are way down on normal because people are confined around home, though home renovation accidents are up!

The whole lockdown thing hasn't phased me, as I spent a year cut off from the rest of the world in Antarctica back when I was younger.
Apparently Australia's borders are going to be closed for at least the rest of the year, and we will be living a life like old times, where the rest of the world seems so far away....and not real smile


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Originally Posted by Deltajockey
Jack and Gwing....thanks for balancing the picture for me. I have long felt also that the media's representation of this whole affair seems worse than the virus itself, and contributes to stressing me out. There are certain similarities here in Australia, Jack. The economic fallout has been far worse than the health impact. Our hospitals are ready to cope with an onslaught which hasn't eventuated, and the government is reluctant to be complacent in case it gets out of control, so restrictions will be in place for a little while longer. Some hospitals are also abnormally very quiet, as people with conventional ailments are avoiding going there too, and they are telling people not to risk worsening strokes and heart attacks by delaying going to hospital. Not surprisingly, road and other trauma accidents are way down on normal because people are confined around home, though home renovation accidents are up!

The whole lockdown thing hasn't phased me, as I spent a year cut off from the rest of the world in Antarctica back when I was younger.
Apparently Australia's borders are going to be closed for at least the rest of the year, and we will be living a life like old times, where the rest of the world seems so far away....and not real smile


Chris

A year in Antarctica, that's fascinating!

Understand this is my perspective. There are many, even in my area, that see it very differently. The US is very divided on a lot of things.

I think this will be a wake up call for many people. My job has taught me to be a germaphobe (as well as an incredible skeptic). Now germaphobia is normal. 😂 I am betting that proper hygiene will prevent a lot of flu in the future. Maybe it will even be enough to offset the deaths from covid19.

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This is a touchy subject, but for what it is worth:

I have a friend who was scheduled to vacation in September in France. They were planning to hire one of those river canal boats for a week. He is an experienced sailor of many many years - so it sounded like a fun trip.

They have cancelled the trip and hope to re-schedule for Sept. 2021. His comment to me yesterday via email was "I am not sure we will be able to make it then, either. This virus may still be with us."

My response was "If this virus is still with us then, you won't have to worry, because the world as we know it will be over."

I don't think he fully grasped my meaning.

If this virus still has everything shut down this September - much less next year, there will be no airlines to take him to France, the river barge company will be history, the hotel industry will be gone, the restaurant industry will be gone, the mortgage industry will have collapsed, the housing market will have collapsed - you get the picture.

I still don't think the average person realizes what could happen. The unemployment figures thus far will look like just the beginning.

It is time to get back to work.

And not just piano tuners.

The mayor of the town where I live allowed residential construction and landscaping - only those jobs - to resume last Monday.

You would have thought he was an axe murderer, from the criticism he received.

One week later the entire county did the same thing.

So far, the apocalypse has not arrived.


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The apocalypse has arrived for some people. I just heard that a member of my club is in the hospital with Covid-related pneumonia, and that does not sound good for him.

I have two nieces who are doctors. One of them is in Brooklyn, so she is on the front lines. The other is in Boise, and I do not want either of them to become overwhelmed, nor the others on their staffs. If a hospital can keep 100 people from dying, it makes a big difference if 99 people come in at once as opposed to 199. That is what "flattening the curve" is about.


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Originally Posted by BDB
The apocalypse has arrived for some people. I just heard that a member of my club is in the hospital with Covid-related pneumonia, and that does not sound good for him.

I have two nieces who are doctors. One of them is in Brooklyn, so she is on the front lines. The other is in Boise, and I do not want either of them to become overwhelmed, nor the others on their staffs. If a hospital can keep 100 people from dying, it makes a big difference if 99 people come in at once as opposed to 199. That is what "flattening the curve" is about.
That is exactly what the world is worrying about.

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I cannot stomach this:

I went to the grocery store two days ago wearing my respirator and gloves. When I got back in my car I observed an old lady coming back to her car (two spots away from me). She was wearing a mask (like she's supposed to). What did she do the instant she got in her car? She pulled off the mask and LIT UP A CIGARETTE! (Don't try to say this is an isolated incident that is irrelevant to the overall issue).

I cannot stand the hypocrisy. And how many people die every day directly as a result of their voluntary choices in life? If health and well-being were REALLY the objective of government oversight MANY other life-destroying practices would be banned...but they are not. Why? I know the answer...you know the answer...don't be fooled.

Pwg


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Originally Posted by P W Grey
I cannot stomach this:

I went to the grocery store two days ago wearing my respirator and gloves. When I got back in my car I observed an old lady coming back to her car (two spots away from me). She was wearing a mask (like she's supposed to). What did she do the instant she got in her car? She pulled off the mask and LIT UP A CIGARETTE! (Don't try to say this is an isolated incident that is irrelevant to the overall issue).

I cannot stand the hypocrisy. And how many people die every day directly as a result of their voluntary choices in life? If health and well-being were REALLY the objective of government oversight MANY other life-destroying practices would be banned...but they are not. Why? I know the answer...you know the answer...don't be fooled.

Pwg

The goal of the Covid safe distancing is to keep INNOCENT people from becoming ill and maybe dying through no fault of their own.


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Well France is studying nicotine preventing the Covid-19. Maybe this lady was ahead of all of us. wink

France Nicotine-Covid19 Study

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