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This article, A call to honesty in pandemic modeling, is discussed in the newspaper story, Pittsburgh professors see flaws in coronavirus modeling, predict more grim outlook.

Excerpt from the story:

From this article:

This just happened 90 minutes ago:

NYT: "Wuhan, Where Coronavirus Emerged, Lifts Lockdown After 11 Weeks"


(Again, the skeptical please note: This lifting of the lockdown in Wuhan would be totally insane as a purely political stunt and if someone authorized such political theater while in reality, COVID-19 was still secretly running rampant in Wuhan, they would likely lose their head... This is not to say that the Chinese Government always tells the truth - I'm not making such a claim. I'm only commenting on the "current" state of the virus in Wuhan, regardless of what the Chinese Government should specifically claim about it.)

Tyrone - note the electron tagging, the pictures from Wuhan and read the Taiwan news for the unofficial death toll. Also what the residents have been told about the origin of the virus.

Tyrone - also read this report.Wuhan

Colin didn't I just say that I am not saying that China doesn't lie? Wouldn't it be wonderful if they told the truth on everything? I'm just saying that there is evidence from their behavior that China has now gotten Wuhan under (what they think of) as control, regardless of what the actual numbers were at one time or even now. This behavioral evidence (i.e., lifting the lockdown) could be faked, but only by a madman.

I think the truth lies somewhere between what China is saying and what Taiwan is saying lol!

Uh, yeah, about that:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/china-...t-remains-incomplete-11586293305?mod=mhp

As I suspected. An authoritarian government doesn't care how many of its own citizens are fed through the meat grinder. It just cares about maintaining power and control.

On Tencent the 'true' numbers have been flashing up only to be quickly replaced by the official ones.

And perhaps the actual China numbers are 10x or 20x the reported numbers, but you are entirely missing my point. At least two people questioned my earlier posts about the infection in Wuhan being under control while nowhere in the West is it close to being under control yet. This is my point.

Even if the actual numbers are 100x that of what are reported, the Chinese do think they now have it under control.

I am not arguing the numbers. I am not arguing about whether or not China tells the truth. And I am not arguing China is a well-behaved democratic country that treats its people with respect (re: meat grinders). I am arguing that China has the infection in Wuhan under control, and I think that is becoming indisputable.

So the narrative must at least change. Those negative about China will need to slow their roll on whether China really has COVID-19 under control and switch over to claiming that it is now under control only because of their totalitarian system. (There, I've fed you some talking points for your next few posts. 🤣)

I think your point is clear. If the whole thing were just for show, they could have avoided having any lockdown at all. They could have claimed to be the only country in the world without any virus cases, but they're not stupid.

Maybe we should concentrate on how this epidemic could have been prevented by eradicating wet markets in China even after SARS outbreak many years ago. It's too late now but how about Chinese government finally showing that gruesome wet markets are now a thing from the past

How do you know it's "under control"?
They're getting close to doing just that.

Not by listening to what they say, but by observing evidence such as the lifting of the 11-week lockdown on Wuhan.

Hey, I thought that's North Korea!

Did you even read either of the articles that were posted? And now there's another city, Suifenhe, that's under lockdown. And if the actual numbers are "100x" what's stated, that's hardly "under control".

Yes. Bravo to the Chinese. I applaud every city they lock down - it shows they are really taking this virus seriously. And I think this also shows that they are not playing around with "lockdowns" for political theater, as some have speculated.


It absolutely is (that is, what I said, which is that it's either under control or the Chinese think it's under control) if they feeling they can lift the lockdown. I am watching their behavior, not what they say. (Coming from China myself, I have a healthy skepticism about what the authorities there say, but it doesn't change what they do and the information their actions convey.)

Yeah, so am I. An article from on official Chinese newspaper stated that there could be 10k-20k asymptomatic infected people in Wuhan. That article was quickly sent down the memory hole. It *could* be that maybe, just maybe, China isn't as adept at testing as they'd like us to believe.

And there could be. But the authorities clearly think it is under control or else they would never have lifted the lockdown on Wuhan. In the end, they could be wrong and be kicking themselves in a few months for lifting the Wuhan lockdown. In fact, we could all be wrong, We (I'm using the global we, here) don't have a handle on asymptomatic infections.

Yeah, the same authorities who were stating in mid-January that there was no evidence of human-to-human transmission. Doesn't mean jack sh*t. Pardon my skepticism.