2017 was our 20th year online!

Welcome to the Piano World Piano Forums
Over 2.9 million posts about pianos, digital pianos, and all types of keyboard instruments
Join the World's Largest Community of Piano Lovers (it's free)
It's Fun to Play the Piano ... Please Pass It On!

Shop our online store for music lovers
SEARCH
Piano Forums & Piano World
(ad)
Petrof Pianos
Petrof Pianos
(ad)
Pianoteq
PianoTeq Karsten Collection
(ad)
Piano Life Saver - Dampp Chaser
Dampp Chaser Piano Life Saver
Who's Online Now
69 members (amyram, Chouca, Aare Havanese, Boboulus, AZNpiano, Brahms4, 36251, ChatNoir, 10 invisible), 548 guests, and 468 robots.
Key: Admin, Global Mod, Mod
(ad)
Estonia Pianos
Estonia Pianos
Previous Thread
Next Thread
Print Thread
Hop To
Page 2 of 3 1 2 3
Re: Essential Services?
Gene Nelson #2961942 03/30/20 02:21 PM
Joined: Nov 2008
Posts: 6,105
6000 Post Club Member
Offline
6000 Post Club Member
Joined: Nov 2008
Posts: 6,105
Originally Posted by Gene Nelson
I think the coined term "social distancing" is inappropriate.
Socializing is fraternal and regardless of how it happens: either eye contact, handshake jesture at a distance, vulcan live long and prosper sign, elbowing at a distance, or any other fraternal sign language keeping that 6 foot clearance.
The social contact happens regardless. Its an experience.
I would rename it "physical distancing" and avoid alienating people more than necessary with language that is not filtered through the reflective mind.

But what if in your mind you actually see the opportunity to exercise control over society? You might sweeten the deal by "giving" everyone a couple thou, which they will be paying back through inflation many times over, becoming more dependent on socialism all the while. (The first joint, uh, welfare check is free...) Not saying to do nothing. Just have my doubts when the biggest spending bill in history was quickly unanimous in the Senate that it is a measured response.


Jeff Deutschle
Part-Time Tuner
Who taught the first chicken how to peck?
(ad)
Piano & Music Accessories
piano accessories music gifts tuning and moving equipment
Re: Essential Services?
malkin #2961968 03/30/20 03:29 PM
Joined: Sep 2004
Posts: 2,494
G
2000 Post Club Member
Offline
2000 Post Club Member
G
Joined: Sep 2004
Posts: 2,494
Every political hack that has utopian wet dreams fanticises about control and wielding power over society.
Fortunately they are not at the helm right now.
I have no idea how this economic thing will unfold but I’ll place my bets on the strong capitalist economy that preceded the pandemonium.
I qualify for the check but don’t need it fortunately as I have retirement income.
The thing to do if I get one is to get it back into the economy ASAP donate to mask makers or people that need toilet paper and canned beans.
We will see how recovery goes, I don’t listen to predictions.


RPT
PTG Member
Re: Essential Services?
UnrightTooner #2962022 03/30/20 06:49 PM
Joined: May 2001
Posts: 27,232
Yikes! 10000 Post Club Member
Online Content
Yikes! 10000 Post Club Member
Joined: May 2001
Posts: 27,232
Originally Posted by UnrightTooner
Originally Posted by pianoloverus
Originally Posted by UnrightTooner
The average age of death from coronavirus is 80, US surgeon general says:

https://www.cnn.com/world/live-news...l-hnk/h_756ae86885c0377629fc126a9086a172


40% of the virus cases in New York state are in the 18-54 age group. I think repeating statements like the one you quoted unfortunately encourage younger people to not socially distance themselves. Even if they get a mild case of the flu or have no symptoms they can give it to a person who is more susceptible of getting severe symptoms or even dying. I live in NYC and the main streets, like main streets in major cities around the world, are incredibly empty for a good reason.

The article you quoted is 19 days old when things were just beginning.

And 55% of the NY population is in the 18-54 age group: https://newyork.areaconnect.com/statistics.htm

Younger people are less likely to get it and much less likely to die from it. That's my point: https://nymag.com/intelligencer/202...ortality-rate-among-older-patients.html.
https://github.com/cmrivers/ncov/blob/master/COVID-19.pdf

I give references to what I find, so others can consider the sources. You should too. smile
You TOTALLY missed my point. Anything that encourages younger people not to socially isolate will cause more deaths. By saying they are less likely to get covid 19 or get serious complications and not saying in the same statement that they must still isolate you encourage younger people not to isolate.

Last edited by pianoloverus; 03/30/20 06:53 PM.
Re: Essential Services?
pianoloverus #2962041 03/30/20 08:51 PM
Joined: Nov 2008
Posts: 6,105
6000 Post Club Member
Offline
6000 Post Club Member
Joined: Nov 2008
Posts: 6,105
Originally Posted by pianoloverus
Originally Posted by UnrightTooner
Originally Posted by pianoloverus
Originally Posted by UnrightTooner
The average age of death from coronavirus is 80, US surgeon general says:

https://www.cnn.com/world/live-news...l-hnk/h_756ae86885c0377629fc126a9086a172


40% of the virus cases in New York state are in the 18-54 age group. I think repeating statements like the one you quoted unfortunately encourage younger people to not socially distance themselves. Even if they get a mild case of the flu or have no symptoms they can give it to a person who is more susceptible of getting severe symptoms or even dying. I live in NYC and the main streets, like main streets in major cities around the world, are incredibly empty for a good reason.

The article you quoted is 19 days old when things were just beginning.

And 55% of the NY population is in the 18-54 age group: https://newyork.areaconnect.com/statistics.htm

Younger people are less likely to get it and much less likely to die from it. That's my point: https://nymag.com/intelligencer/202...ortality-rate-among-older-patients.html.
https://github.com/cmrivers/ncov/blob/master/COVID-19.pdf

I give references to what I find, so others can consider the sources. You should too. smile
You TOTALLY missed my point. Anything that encourages younger people not to socially isolate will cause more deaths. By saying they are less likely to get covid 19 or get serious complications and not saying in the same statement that they must still isolate you encourage younger people not to isolate.

I do get your point, but do not agree. I don't think you get my point. Covid-19 will not simply vanish when the last person now having it recovers because we cannot/will not achieve 100% isolation for weeks or months. It will continue to spread. It's going to be around until we achieve herd immunity ~60% of the population. Does not matter what age of the population is in that 60% as far as building up herd immunity. The older the average age of that 60%, the more deaths we will see on the way there. But still, we need to make sure that there are not deaths due to the health system being overwhelmed. In hots spots, sure, we need more isolation for that very reason, but isolation is not a magic bullet for the good ole USA. We ain't a small, high capita per acre, authoritarian Asian country. Of course it is a VERY good idea to isolate those that are most at risk, while other more robust individuals will inevitably succumb to and recover from the virus and provide herd immunity to those at risk. It's the same reasoning used to require that all students are immunized for measles so those that cannot be immunized will be protected.

As far as you thinking that I have much affect in encouraging or discouraging young folks to do or not do something, well, I'm flattered. laugh laugh laugh


Jeff Deutschle
Part-Time Tuner
Who taught the first chicken how to peck?
Re: Essential Services?
malkin #2962064 03/30/20 10:37 PM
Joined: Dec 2012
Posts: 5,555
E
5000 Post Club Member
Offline
5000 Post Club Member
E
Joined: Dec 2012
Posts: 5,555
This virus spreads easily and fast. That is obvious by the rate of new seriously ill people. That means the health care system is or soon will be stressed beyond the breaking point and that puts all people who need any type of significant health care at risk for disablement or death that otherwise is avoidable. The increased death rate will not be just from those ill with the virus. We must LIMIT personal interactions for the near future.


In a seemingly infinite universe-infinite human creativity is-seemingly possible.
According to NASA, 93% of the earth like planets possible in the known universe have yet to be formed.
Contact: Ed@LightHammerpiano.com
Re: Essential Services?
malkin #2962128 03/31/20 06:09 AM
Joined: Feb 2018
Posts: 683
G
500 Post Club Member
Offline
500 Post Club Member
G
Joined: Feb 2018
Posts: 683

Quote

I do get your point, but do not agree. I don't think you get my point. Covid-19 will not simply vanish when the last person now having it recovers because we cannot/will not achieve 100% isolation for weeks or months. It will continue to spread. It's going to be around until we achieve herd immunity ~60% of the population. Does not matter what age of the population is in that 60% as far as building up herd immunity. The older the average age of that 60%, the more deaths we will see on the way there. But still, we need to make sure that there are not deaths due to the health system being overwhelmed. In hots spots, sure, we need more isolation for that very reason, but isolation is not a magic bullet for the good ole USA. We ain't a small, high capita per acre, authoritarian Asian country. Of course it is a VERY good idea to isolate those that are most at risk, while other more robust individuals will inevitably succumb to and recover from the virus and provide herd immunity to those at risk. It's the same reasoning used to require that all students are immunized for measles so those that cannot be immunized will be protected.

As far as you thinking that I have much affect in encouraging or discouraging young folks to do or not do something, well, I'm flattered. laugh laugh laugh


There is a lot of understanding in the above, but the conclusions drawn are dangerous. Let me expand a bit and question some of the detail.

Herd immunity. Yes this would be a long term solution (if a brutal one), as would be a vaccine. At this moment nobody knows what percentage would be necessary to achieve herd immunity but 60% is likely to be an entirely optimistic number for instance the required percentage for measles herd immunity is thought to be between 93 and 95%. You can estimate the needed percentage from the onward transmission ratio and I estimate it at perhaps, 80% but that could be widely innacurate as we don't have accurate numbers on the transmission rate itself.

Just the young getting infected. Yes again, this could be useful in building up some herd immunity and hence slowing transmission but not just now please! Even the young get sick and die, just in smaller percentages than the old. If the virus spread is not contained, even if only the young are infected, the health system will not cope and there will be many deaths. Of course even then it will not be just the young infected, the more are infected the more the infection will be passed on to others irrespective of age, so even more impossible numbers for the health service to deal with.

Re: Essential Services?
malkin #2962305 03/31/20 05:19 PM
Joined: Jun 2010
Posts: 2,665
L
2000 Post Club Member
Offline
2000 Post Club Member
L
Joined: Jun 2010
Posts: 2,665
This story is showing a fatality risk to middle-aged people: https://news.yahoo.com/study-shows-middle-age-covid-19-mortality-risk-100840947.html


DiGiorgi Piano Service
http://www.digiorgipiano.com
Re: Essential Services?
Gene Nelson #2962349 03/31/20 07:15 PM
Joined: Apr 2010
Posts: 2,173
K
Platinum Subscriber
2000 Post Club Member
Offline
Platinum Subscriber
2000 Post Club Member
K
Joined: Apr 2010
Posts: 2,173
Originally Posted by Gene Nelson
I think the coined term "social distancing" is inappropriate.
Socializing is fraternal and regardless of how it happens: either eye contact, handshake jesture at a distance, vulcan live long and prosper sign, elbowing at a distance, or any other fraternal sign language keeping that 6 foot clearance.
The social contact happens regardless. Its an experience.
I would rename it "physical distancing" and avoid alienating people more than necessary with language that is not filtered through the reflective mind.

thumb thumb thumb


Keith Akins, RPT
Piano Technologist
USA Distributor for Isaac Cadenza hammers and Profundo Bass Strings
Supporting Piano Owners D-I-Y piano tuning and repair
editor emeritus of Piano Technicians Journal
Re: Essential Services?
Loren D #2962373 03/31/20 08:31 PM
Joined: Nov 2008
Posts: 6,105
6000 Post Club Member
Offline
6000 Post Club Member
Joined: Nov 2008
Posts: 6,105
Originally Posted by Loren D
This story is showing a fatality risk to middle-aged people: https://news.yahoo.com/study-shows-middle-age-covid-19-mortality-risk-100840947.html

Thanks for posting that link. I see some problems with the article. First, "Middle-aged" is from 45-65, yet the age bracket from 50-59 was cherry picked. But maybe in France, where this AFP new agency is headquartered, Middle-aged means something different. Then there is this quote: "There might be outlying cases that get a lot of media attention, but our analysis very clearly shows that at aged 50 and over, hospitalisation is much more likely than in those under 50, and a greater proportion of cases are likely to be fatal." OK, it doesn't say so, but a casual reader might not think how meaningless this is. Pick ANY age, 14, 41, 76 and you could say the same thing. There's some interesting facts in the article, but where's the beef?


Jeff Deutschle
Part-Time Tuner
Who taught the first chicken how to peck?
Re: Essential Services?
malkin #2962435 04/01/20 04:26 AM
Joined: May 2007
Posts: 2,199
D
Gold Subscriber
2000 Post Club Member
Online Content
Gold Subscriber
2000 Post Club Member
D
Joined: May 2007
Posts: 2,199
A previously healthy 13-year-old boy died of Covid-19 in hospital in the UK yesterday.

Last edited by David Boyce; 04/01/20 04:26 AM.
Re: Essential Services?
malkin #2962458 04/01/20 06:20 AM
Joined: May 2015
Posts: 6,024
Silver Subscriber
6000 Post Club Member
Offline
Silver Subscriber
6000 Post Club Member
Joined: May 2015
Posts: 6,024
Why are we so fixated on most deaths being over 50, 60 or 70? Severe cases, even with recovery, can result in being in a ventilator for up to three weeks... . and that can happen at any age.

In addition. Even 60 yr olds are someone’s mother, sister or grandparent. We should be concerned about the best case scenario of deaths in the US being greater than 100,000. We need to each do our part to stop the mass numbers. ... self-isolate.


"Music, rich, full of feeling, not soulless, is like a crystal on which the sun falls and brings forth from it a whole rainbow" - F. Chopin
"I never dreamt with my own two hands I could touch the sky" - Sappho

It's ok to be a Work In Progress
Re: Essential Services?
malkin #2962459 04/01/20 06:25 AM
Joined: May 2007
Posts: 2,199
D
Gold Subscriber
2000 Post Club Member
Online Content
Gold Subscriber
2000 Post Club Member
D
Joined: May 2007
Posts: 2,199
Quote
Even 60 yr olds are someone’s mother, sister or grandparent.


I'm 62 and I'm not anyone's mother, sister or grandparent......

Re: Essential Services?
David Boyce #2962465 04/01/20 06:49 AM
Joined: May 2015
Posts: 6,024
Silver Subscriber
6000 Post Club Member
Offline
Silver Subscriber
6000 Post Club Member
Joined: May 2015
Posts: 6,024
Originally Posted by David Boyce
Quote
Even 60 yr olds are someone’s mother, sister or grandparent.


I'm 62 and I'm not anyone's mother, sister or grandparent......


That doesn’t mean you’re not important to someone or that your life should unnecessarily be cut short. We should grieve for every unnecessary death rather than dismissing it based in age.


"Music, rich, full of feeling, not soulless, is like a crystal on which the sun falls and brings forth from it a whole rainbow" - F. Chopin
"I never dreamt with my own two hands I could touch the sky" - Sappho

It's ok to be a Work In Progress
Re: Essential Services?
malkin #2962552 04/01/20 12:05 PM
Joined: May 2007
Posts: 2,199
D
Gold Subscriber
2000 Post Club Member
Online Content
Gold Subscriber
2000 Post Club Member
D
Joined: May 2007
Posts: 2,199
Oh dear. It was meant to be a sort of joke. I was a little amused by the idea that I might be someone's mother.....

Re: Essential Services?
malkin #2962689 04/01/20 05:17 PM
Joined: Oct 2008
Posts: 5,021
5000 Post Club Member
Offline
5000 Post Club Member
Joined: Oct 2008
Posts: 5,021
I think that since the advent of antibiotics, vaccines, sanitary sewer and water systems, USDA inspections of food producers' premises and products, that we have forgotten what a heavy toll in infant mortality was exacted, not really so very long ago.

It would be very tragic to have to go back and relearn this hard lesson. And frankly, making it ok to trade the lives of persons older than their mid-sixties, for the sake of the dollar, could be even more pernicious.


Clef

Re: Essential Services?
malkin #2962812 04/02/20 05:14 AM
Joined: Nov 2008
Posts: 6,105
6000 Post Club Member
Offline
6000 Post Club Member
Joined: Nov 2008
Posts: 6,105
Sake of the dollar?

We can become so afraid to die that we stop living. The social norm is now one of isolation rather than congregation.It is becoming obvious that there are virus carriers. We do not have the PHS to go around chasing infection trails nor the ability to effectually isolate those individuals. The Americas are not Asia. Defeating by mass isolation will not work here. It's like taking a medicine that will do more harm than good. But that is the way that we will continue to self-harm, and it will be for the sake of the dollar in the end. The Fed has turned on the printing presses, and will continue to do so. The ugliest part is that the Fed's printing press is also the world's printing press.

My 14 yo can't link up with any friends to spend time with. No baseball this year, either. It's not even a contact sport. He wants to be an Electrical Engineer, but right now is filling an essential job working on a dairy farm. I now wonder which will be a better path for him. I'd like to be around to get him on with a good life, and would GLADLY risk my life for him to achieve that. Heck, maybe I am risking it right now working at a facility that employs hundreds. I could quit and go on unemployment right now - no questions asked. I choose to LIVE even if it means I might die. I am social security age.


Jeff Deutschle
Part-Time Tuner
Who taught the first chicken how to peck?
Re: Essential Services?
malkin #2962817 04/02/20 06:07 AM
Joined: May 2007
Posts: 2,199
D
Gold Subscriber
2000 Post Club Member
Online Content
Gold Subscriber
2000 Post Club Member
D
Joined: May 2007
Posts: 2,199
According to US military figures, some 675,000 people in the USA died of Spanish Flu (caused by an H1N1 virus) in 1918.

Around the world, between 50 and 100 million people died of it (no-one knows exact figures) within a period of eighteen months. The First World War only (!) managed to kill around 17 million soldiers and civilians, over four years. Nature can be a much more effective killer! It was called Spanish Flu because Spain was neutral in WW1 and reported honest death figures, whereas other countries disguised the death toll. This made it look as if Spain was especially bad with the Flu.

In 1917-1918, no-one knew much about viruses. They were newly discovered, and associated with plant diseases. And certainly no-one knew about cytokine storms, the reason why the Spanish Flu had a worse death toll on young fit healthy people than on the frail and elderly.

There was really no effective treatment, and the world must have watched helplessly. It is reckoned that about 28% of the world's population became infected. It is probable that troop movements at the end of the war helped to spread the infection.

The present aim is to at least slow the spread of the virus, so that hospitals can get ready to cope with treating large numbers. There is also the hope that if there is enough isolation, the little virus particles may eventually pack up their little virus suitcases and go away.

The less people move about, touching surfaces that other people have touched or will touch, or inhaling microscopic aerosol droplets that others have exhaled or will inhale, the less the virus can spread.

Young people today have so many more means of keeping in touch than in any previous age. Telephone conversations, WhatsApp, Facetime, Skype, email, text messaging, etc.

Last edited by David Boyce; 04/02/20 06:08 AM.
Re: Essential Services?
malkin #2962830 04/02/20 07:07 AM
Joined: Nov 2008
Posts: 6,105
6000 Post Club Member
Offline
6000 Post Club Member
Joined: Nov 2008
Posts: 6,105
David, thanks for the thoughtful, considerate response. The key difference I see in our views is whether we can keep the virus from spreading as much (to as many people) or really only how fast with isolation. Granted, if it is kept to a slow enough pace, lives will be saved by not overwhelming the medical system. Some places we can do better than others. I have no confidence that we can actually stop it where it is on this side of the pond.

As far as young people keeping in touch through technology, that works far better with more verbal people, typically girls, than with more physical people, like guys. We'll that has been the situation in schools for quite a while. Gym class is just a once a year check mark rather than an essential, daily activity.


Jeff Deutschle
Part-Time Tuner
Who taught the first chicken how to peck?
Re: Essential Services?
malkin #2962848 04/02/20 08:43 AM
Joined: May 2007
Posts: 2,199
D
Gold Subscriber
2000 Post Club Member
Online Content
Gold Subscriber
2000 Post Club Member
D
Joined: May 2007
Posts: 2,199
I have been going out for my once-a-day government permitted walk, and I have noted that people are being very careful to observe the two-meter separation rule. If you pass another person, he or she, and you, both move to give a wide berth.

Shops are all closed except for food and essential supplies places. There were reports of people flocking to scenic areas to take recreation there, but this has been clamped down on, and access roads for cars, to park areas, are blocked off. The recommendation is NOT to drive to a place and then walk/jog, but to leave the car and walk from your home.

I am conscious to try and remember not to touch handrails etc, as the virus can survive for a couple of days (or more) on surfaces. If I do touch a surface when out and about, I am carrying hand sanitizer gel for immediate use. Everyone is being careful to wash hands, and to wear nitrile glove where appropriate. Contactless payment instead of cash is strongly encouraged when shopping.

This week a 13 year old and a 19 year old without underlying health conditions have died from Covid-19 in the UK.

We are living through a truly extraordinary global effort (with country by country variations) to slow the spread of a pandemic, so that health services do not get overwhelmed.

Teenage boys may be less inclined that girls to use the internet and/or the cellphone network to keep in touch socially. But they will just have to adapt! Twenty-five years ago, those options did not exist.

I teach in a high school, by the way.

Re: Essential Services?
malkin #2964464 04/07/20 04:53 PM
Joined: Mar 2006
Posts: 61
D
Full Member
Offline
Full Member
D
Joined: Mar 2006
Posts: 61
So.....assuming this essential/non-essential thing eventually comes to an end and we dare to venture back out into the world of pianos, what changes in your routine do you anticipate? No handshake hello/goodbye, 6' distancing in the client's property, wearing of mask/gloves during tuning, disinfect the keys (other parts too - but with what? Will Key-Brite suffice or something else in addition? Will that 'something else' cause damage?), perhaps reduced rates for a period to get clients back on board? All things that have crossed my mind but haven't fully decided.

Just waiting/praying for things to calm down with minimal loss of life and getting the economy going again as quickly as possible. I think we are teetering on the verge of a depression unlike any ever seen before.

Page 2 of 3 1 2 3

Moderated by  Piano World 

Link Copied to Clipboard
Hand Sanitizer for Musicians
Hand Sanitizer for Musicians
Musician's Hand Sanitizer available in our online store (and our Maple Street Music shop in Cornish Maine). Antibacterial, 62% ethyl alcohol. Hand Sanitizer for Musicians
Tons more music related products in our online store!
What's Hot!!
News from the Piano World
Where Did The Buttons Go?!
----------------------
Our April 2020 Newsletter Available Online Now...
The Piano World During the Pandemic!
----------------------
Posting Pictures on the Forums
-------------------
Forums RULES & HELP
-------------------
ADVERTISE on Piano World
(ad)
Best of Piano Buyer
 Best of Piano Buyer
(ad)
Faust Harrison Pianos
Faust Harrison 100+ Steinway pianos
Download Sheet Music
Virtual Sheet Music - Classical Sheet Music Downloads
New Topics - Multiple Forums
Teaching melodic jazz improvisation
by rintincop - 05/28/20 05:10 PM
Post Question
by PatG - 05/28/20 04:14 PM
Action: Yamaha P-515 vs. Kawai VPC1
by SamG - 05/28/20 02:49 PM
Some interesting opportunities
by BDB - 05/28/20 02:30 PM
New-ish rental Y b2
by Maestro Lennie - 05/28/20 02:17 PM
Forum Statistics
Forums41
Topics199,239
Posts2,963,243
Members97,214
Most Online15,252
Mar 21st, 2010
Please Support Our Advertisers


Faust Harrison 100+ Steinways

Dampp Chaser Piano Life Saver

 Best of Piano Buyer

PianoTeq Bechstein
Visit our online store for gifts for music lovers

Virtual Sheet Music - Classical Sheet Music Downloads



 
Help keep the forums up and running with a donation, any amount is appreciated!
Or by becoming a Subscribing member! Thank-you.
Donate   Subscribe
 
Our Piano Related Classified Ads
| Dealers | Tuners | Lessons | Movers | Restorations | Pianos For Sale | Sell Your Piano |

Advertise on Piano World
| Subscribe | Piano World | PianoSupplies.com | Advertise on Piano World |
| |Contact | Privacy | Legal | About Us | Site Map | Free Newsletter |


copyright 1997 - 2020 Piano World ® all rights reserved
No part of this site may be reproduced without prior written permission
Powered by UBB.threads™ PHP Forum Software 7.7.4