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Re: Coronavirus epidemic and piano practice/teaching/performing [Re: 3am_stargazing] #2959942 03/23/20 10:44 PM
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Re: Coronavirus epidemic and piano practice/teaching/performing [Re: 3am_stargazing] #2960001 03/24/20 08:20 AM
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Looks like nearly all western countries are now going to a confinement strategy. After Italy and then France, it is now also the case officially for UK, Germany, US and others. Thats a lot of people at home .....

Re: Coronavirus epidemic and piano practice/teaching/performing [Re: 3am_stargazing] #2960036 03/24/20 11:29 AM
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Here's a nice piano practice/teaching/performing during the Coronavirus epidemic:


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Re: Coronavirus epidemic and piano practice/teaching/performing [Re: toyboy] #2960140 03/24/20 09:50 PM
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Originally Posted by toyboy
I don't know if people have discussed this yet, but I'm wondering how anyone is handling having a piano tuner come. And if they do, how they handle cleaning the piano afterwords.



Surely if they wash their hands properly before tuning the piano, there's no need to clean the piano afterwards?

Or - you could leave the piano for more than three days. The virus can survive for three days on hard surfaces.

Simply don't touch the piano for four days after he's come. As for if he coughs or sneezes or breathes in your face etc. - well we can't account for that.

Re: Coronavirus epidemic and piano practice/teaching/performing [Re: 3am_stargazing] #2960449 03/25/20 09:26 PM
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A contrarian viewpoint of how serious the Coronavirus outbreak may be has been put forward by researchers at Oxford University.

In a nutshell the researchers propose that the virus may have already infected half the population of the U.K. If that is true it would be very good news since the mortality rate would be very low.

According to the mathematical modeling, the coronavirus arrived in mid-January at the latest, and spread undetected for over a month before the first cases were confirmed.

It should be pointed out that this study has not yet been peer reviewed or proven, but serological tests looking at antibodies to COVID-19 are being developed and should be available soon, so we will find out shortly if they are right. Since this is a novel virus that has never appeared in humans before the antibody test would be extremely specific and helpful in providing data in determining how far the disease has spread since January.

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/03/oxford-study-coronavirus-may-have-infected-half-of-u-k.html

If these researchers are correct the economies of the world may have been wrecked for relatively little benefit since only a tiny fraction of people infected by the virus require hospitalization according to the study, possibly as low as 1 in 1000.

Someone is going to have egg on their faces very soon - either these Oxford researchers, or the WHO and health officials of nearly every country on the planet.


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Re: Coronavirus epidemic and piano practice/teaching/performing [Re: 3am_stargazing] #2960458 03/25/20 09:55 PM
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Considering this is life or death, literally, of people, I would be more inclined to trust the Government's Chief Medical Officer, than an academic's mathematical modelling, especially one that lacks vital data to make it actually mean anything.

Re: Coronavirus epidemic and piano practice/teaching/performing [Re: 3am_stargazing] #2960472 03/25/20 10:35 PM
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Here is another contrarian article from two professors of medicine at Stanford who believe that current estimates about the Covid-19 fatality rate may be too high by orders of magnitude:

“The epidemic started in China sometime in November or December. The first confirmed U.S. cases included a person who traveled from Wuhan on Jan. 15, and it is likely that the virus entered before that: Tens of thousands of people traveled from Wuhan to the U.S. in December. Existing evidence suggests that the virus is highly transmissible and that the number of infections doubles roughly every three days. An epidemic seed on Jan. 1 implies that by March 9 about six million people in the U.S. would have been infected. As of March 23, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, there were 499 Covid-19 deaths in the U.S. If our surmise of six million cases is accurate, that’s a mortality rate of 0.01%, assuming a two week lag between infection and death. This is one-tenth of the flu mortality rate of 0.1%. Such a low death rate would be cause for optimism.”

https://www.wsj.com/articles/is-the-coronavirus-as-deadly-as-they-say-11585088464


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VI’s: Garritan CFX, VSL Bösendorfer Upright, and VSL Blüthner 1895. Pianoteq.
Re: Coronavirus epidemic and piano practice/teaching/performing [Re: JJHLH] #2960504 03/26/20 01:02 AM
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Originally Posted by JJHLH
Here is another contrarian article from two professors of medicine at Stanford who believe that current estimates about the Covid-19 fatality rate may be too high by orders of magnitude:

“The epidemic started in China sometime in November or December. The first confirmed U.S. cases included a person who traveled from Wuhan on Jan. 15, and it is likely that the virus entered before that: Tens of thousands of people traveled from Wuhan to the U.S. in December. Existing evidence suggests that the virus is highly transmissible and that the number of infections doubles roughly every three days. An epidemic seed on Jan. 1 implies that by March 9 about six million people in the U.S. would have been infected. As of March 23, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, there were 499 Covid-19 deaths in the U.S. If our surmise of six million cases is accurate, that’s a mortality rate of 0.01%, assuming a two week lag between infection and death. This is one-tenth of the flu mortality rate of 0.1%. Such a low death rate would be cause for optimism.”

https://www.wsj.com/articles/is-the-coronavirus-as-deadly-as-they-say-11585088464

The WSJ is not a peer-reviewed publication. Why not publish in a peer reviewed publication? Maybe because it is filled with guesswork and suppositions? I hope Stanford's Office of Academic Integrity gave/give each of them a spanking.


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Re: Coronavirus epidemic and piano practice/teaching/performing [Re: 3am_stargazing] #2960516 03/26/20 02:21 AM
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Re: Coronavirus epidemic and piano practice/teaching/performing [Re: 3am_stargazing] #2960520 03/26/20 02:51 AM
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Re: Coronavirus epidemic and piano practice/teaching/performing [Re: Tyrone Slothrop] #2960525 03/26/20 03:16 AM
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Originally Posted by Tyrone Slothrop

The WSJ is not a peer-reviewed publication. Why not publish in a peer reviewed publication? Maybe because it is filled with guesswork and suppositions? I hope Stanford's Office of Academic Integrity gave/give each of them a spanking.


Actually it was in the opinion section.

Re: Coronavirus epidemic and piano practice/teaching/performing [Re: wszxbcl] #2960537 03/26/20 05:13 AM
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Originally Posted by wszxbcl
Originally Posted by Tyrone Slothrop

The WSJ is not a peer-reviewed publication. Why not publish in a peer reviewed publication? Maybe because it is filled with guesswork and suppositions? I hope Stanford's Office of Academic Integrity gave/give each of them a spanking.


Actually it was in the opinion section.

Well, you know what they say - opinions are like _ _ _ _ _ _ _ s, everyone has one. wink


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across the stone, deathless piano performances

"Discipline is more reliable than motivation." -by a contributor on Reddit r/piano
"Success is 10% inspiration, and 90% perspiration." -by some other wise person
"Pianoteq manages to keep it all together yet simultaneously also go in all directions; like a quantum particle entangled with an unknown and spooky parallel universe simply waiting to be discovered." -by Pete14
Re: Coronavirus epidemic and piano practice/teaching/performing [Re: 3am_stargazing] #2960566 03/26/20 07:15 AM
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[Linked Image]
across the stone, deathless piano performances

"Discipline is more reliable than motivation." -by a contributor on Reddit r/piano
"Success is 10% inspiration, and 90% perspiration." -by some other wise person
"Pianoteq manages to keep it all together yet simultaneously also go in all directions; like a quantum particle entangled with an unknown and spooky parallel universe simply waiting to be discovered." -by Pete14
Re: Coronavirus epidemic and piano practice/teaching/performing [Re: 3am_stargazing] #2960572 03/26/20 07:37 AM
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Given the very widely differing testing and reporting criteria from country to country these stats aren't all that meaningful.


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Re: Coronavirus epidemic and piano practice/teaching/performing [Re: JJHLH] #2960574 03/26/20 07:42 AM
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Originally Posted by JJHLH


If these researchers are correct the economies of the world may have been wrecked for relatively little benefit since only a tiny fraction of people infected by the virus require hospitalization according to the study, possibly as low as 1 in 1000.

Someone is going to have egg on their faces very soon - either these Oxford researchers, or the WHO and health officials of nearly every country on the planet.


The reason people are confined is to reduce the number of people that need medical urgent care at any given point of time. In Italy the healthcare system is already overwhelmed which in practice means that a number of patients that could have been saved in normal time have not because of lack of ventilators. Doctors are now in a situation to make choices of who leaves and who dies. There are 800 people who died because of the virus in one day when the usual rate per day is 1500 all causes combined.

Same situation is now occuring in France in the East region and soon to occur in the Paris area. It will not take very long before a similar situation occurr also in UK and US.

So all in all maybe that the death rate is not extremely high, but the main point is that, is there anybody that would take the responsibility of not taking actions and accept that a number of people would die because of that. In peace time, non one can accept to condemn certain people to death when taking actions can save them, even if that means an impact on the economy.

Plus the confinement has some benefits, we use less oil, less pollution and less useless travel.

Re: Coronavirus epidemic and piano practice/teaching/performing [Re: Sidokar] #2960591 03/26/20 08:49 AM
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Originally Posted by Sidokar

Plus the confinement has some benefits, we use less oil, less pollution and less useless travel.

Yeah, we "save" the planet, while people loose their jobs and wages, businesses close and people suffer immensely from the psychological stress caused by the isolation.


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Re: Coronavirus epidemic and piano practice/teaching/performing [Re: CyberGene] #2960593 03/26/20 08:56 AM
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Originally Posted by CyberGene
Originally Posted by Sidokar

Plus the confinement has some benefits, we use less oil, less pollution and less useless travel.

Yeah, we "save" the planet, while people loose their jobs and wages, businesses close and people suffer immensely from the psychological stress caused by the isolation.


A good point. One could wonder, how much oil, pollution, and travel will it take to rejuvenate the economy once this is over?

Re: Coronavirus epidemic and piano practice/teaching/performing [Re: Tyrone Slothrop] #2960605 03/26/20 09:47 AM
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Originally Posted by Tyrone Slothrop

The WSJ is not a peer-reviewed publication. Why not publish in a peer reviewed publication? Maybe because it is filled with guesswork and suppositions? I hope Stanford's Office of Academic Integrity gave/give each of them a spanking.


That’s true. But the Imperial College Model, which predicted that 2.2 million deaths in the U.S. and half a million in the U.K. could happen without action is also not peer reviewed, yet governments around the world including the U.S. and U.K. are basing their plans on that model.

It does seem strange that this virus has been around for at least 3-4 months yet there are a total of just over 22,000 deaths worldwide.

The Stanford professors are certainly putting their reputations on the line. It will be fascinating to see who is correct.


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Re: Coronavirus epidemic and piano practice/teaching/performing [Re: CyberGene] #2960609 03/26/20 09:55 AM
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Originally Posted by CyberGene
Originally Posted by Sidokar

Plus the confinement has some benefits, we use less oil, less pollution and less useless travel.

Yeah, we "save" the planet, while people loose their jobs and wages, businesses close and people suffer immensely from the psychological stress caused by the isolation.


The planet impact is just a side benefit. The main one is that we save more people's life. I dont want that one of my friend or family member be refused at the hospital because there is no more space, like it is now daily the case in Italy. And if i have to be confined for that, so be it. We will get over the economic impact, and several governments in Italy, France, Germany have already taken actions to reduce the financial impact on some professions. It is not perfect but better than nothing.

Plus whether we like it or not, thats how life will look like in not such a long time, when our energy stock will reduce. The time where we all travel as we like will end soon. This event should be a wake up call to start thinking about preparing the future for our children. The humanity thought that we were stronger than the nature, but a minuscule virus has demonstrated that we are in fact extremely vulnerable.

Re: Coronavirus epidemic and piano practice/teaching/performing [Re: Sidokar] #2960612 03/26/20 10:02 AM
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Originally Posted by Sidokar
Plus the confinement has some benefits, we use less oil, less pollution and less useless travel.


Confinement has wreaked havoc on the world’s economies. More than 3 million Americans lost their jobs last week, shattering the Great Recession peak of 665,000 in March 2009 and the all-time mark of 695,000 in October 1982.

The economic consequences of the confinement are likely to be long-lasting and calamitous. I see nothing positive about poverty and despair.


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