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Re: COVID 19 and the Piano Industry
dhull100 #2958275 03/18/20 09:23 AM
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Originally Posted by dhull100
Pianoloverus is correct, Jack is wrong. Signed, a physician. Might be best not to argue these points here. We are facing a not brief period in history that requires prudence, which varies by person, and courage. May we be well!


I'm wrong, he's right? About everything?

My point is that people should be cautious, not terrified. I'm wrong about that?

You believe that he is right that deaths will be much worse than N1H1,in the US, with the best case scenario? Pianoloverus is right about that?

Help stop misinformation. My logic isnt impervious. If I'm wrong about something, then please take a minute of your day to illustrate it, since you are posting anyway.

I've heard people say that this is the first pandemic of their lifetime. Other people say, I hope this turns out to be like N1H1. In other words, they will be happy if it "only" kills 13,000 Americans this year.

Last edited by Jack Moody; 03/18/20 09:29 AM.
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Re: COVID 19 and the Piano Industry
talkoftheweather #2958278 03/18/20 09:51 AM
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What is the point of this thread continuing?

Rich


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Re: COVID 19 and the Piano Industry
Tyrone Slothrop #2958280 03/18/20 09:57 AM
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Originally Posted by Tyrone Slothrop
Originally Posted by Jack Moody
Originally Posted by Tyrone Slothrop
Originally Posted by Jack Moody
Many doctors believe it's been here for some time, even though there were 0 confirmed cases.

Citations please.


You doubt that it's been in the US for sometime? The World Health Organization was notified, by China, in December. So, we had unrestricted travel for who knows how long, while it was in existence.

More specifically, my wife is a hospitalist. The hospital has been flooded with information/meetings. She told me that was a popular belief.

She also told me that they believe a very high majority could only have minor symptoms, so the worst cases are more likely to be tested.

I'm not trying to act like I know everything about it and it's a nothing deal. It could get worse, but I hate to see so many people traumatized by fear.

I'd like to see real scientific evidence for such an assertion. Yes, I do doubt it, but my opinion here doesn't matter. Either there is evidence, or it is just speculation. For speculation, I don't think any decisions should be made on the basis of speculation, one way or another. Especially attitude to COVID-19 should not be influenced by speculation.


Sorry, I got confused on who said that about 2 M people. You didn't say that.

I'm not trying to argue with you or anyone else, for no reason. Your opinion does, in fact, matter because that dictates how YOU proceed in life. Also, sometimes its good to discuss things to gain new perspective. I wish everyone on here the best.

As for the original topic, I think could be devastating.

At first, I started thinking about how this would change people's perception of daily life and their habits, much l like 911 did.

Then, I realized that China has done similar and harsher containment measures, over the years. I have the impression that when they lift the restrictions, people rush back to their lives. I may be wrong though.

Even if people do come back to their previous lives, in the USA, its a different scenario because the government isnt as intertwined in business dealings. A lot of US businesses could fail in the interim.

Brick and mortar businesses have suffered because of the internet, but many have found their ways over the years. Acoustic pianos are a perfect b&m product, but digitals have hurt them badly. Still, some companies have found their way. Everything changes, but the top tier (or most well known)manufacturers often survive longer than the others.

I believe that Amazon could grow even more as a result of this situation. Online shopping looks pretty good right now!

With people losing their jobs, some aspects of our economy could fall like dominos. It is a very concerning time.

I wouldn't go out and arbitrarily shop at a piano store, at the moment. I'm not especially worried about the progression of this virus, with the measures in place, but I limit my trips to necessary stops. The world is an uncertain place, but most people dont truly recognize that on a daily basis.

Re: COVID 19 and the Piano Industry
pianoloverus #2958281 03/18/20 10:00 AM
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One of the things we have to remember is that WHO and the CDC give us numbers and statistics but we’re not hearing anything about recovery rates, positive COVID-19 test rates, or rates of transmission. All we hear is total number of cases world wide and by country, and fatality rates. In my humble opinion if the general public self isolates for two or three weeks, we should become “over the hump” for this. There will be drive up testing centers coming soon and a vaccine for health care workers coming not soon enough but they’ve thrown tons of research effort on creating a vaccine. The Dow has tanked but I believe that it’s a good opportunity to buy great stocks at great prices. I seriously don’t believe that this is the “Pale Rider” of the Apocalypse. If I’m wrong about that, then there’s nothing I can do to stop it and worrying and fretting about something completely beyond my control is just silly. We should all just sit tight, obey restrictions on social gatherings, and spend some time with loved ones, even it’s just by phone or text. I’m appreciative of grocery store clerks and pharmacy clerks who are still on the job stocking shelves and helping people with self checkout.


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Re: COVID 19 and the Piano Industry
Rich D. #2958282 03/18/20 10:07 AM
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Originally Posted by Rich D.
What is the point of this thread continuing?

Rich


We ended up off of the original topic, partially because of me. My intentions were good. I hate to see people unnecessarily suffering because of panic.

To some degree, the financial impact may not even depend on the actual illness caused by the virus.

People get on here and ask what kind of piano they should buy. What is the purpose of that discussion? Just try them and buy the one that you like best, right?

The point is the exchange of ideas and entertainment, in my opinion.

Re: COVID 19 and the Piano Industry
j&j #2958285 03/18/20 10:13 AM
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Originally Posted by j&j
One of the things we have to remember is that WHO and the CDC give us numbers and statistics but we’re not hearing anything about recovery rates, positive COVID-19 test rates, or rates of transmission. All we hear is total number of cases world wide and by country, and fatality rates. In my humble opinion if the general public self isolates for two or three weeks, we should become “over the hump” for this. There will be drive up testing centers coming soon and a vaccine for health care workers coming not soon enough but they’ve thrown tons of research effort on creating a vaccine. The Dow has tanked but I believe that it’s a good opportunity to buy great stocks at great prices. I seriously don’t believe that this is the “Pale Rider” of the Apocalypse. If I’m wrong about that, then there’s nothing I can do to stop it and worrying and fretting about something completely beyond my control is just silly. We should all just sit tight, obey restrictions on social gatherings, and spend some time with loved ones, even it’s just by phone or text. I’m appreciative of grocery store clerks and pharmacy clerks who are still on the job stocking shelves and helping people with self checkout.

👍
You have summed up my thoughts, in a way that is likely more palatable to readers.

Re: COVID 19 and the Piano Industry
j&j #2958291 03/18/20 10:32 AM
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Originally Posted by j&j
...but we’re not hearing anything about recovery rates, positive COVID-19 test rates, or rates of transmission.

This chart provides a nice summary on testing, recovery, deaths and hospitalizations around the world.

Last edited by MarkL; 03/18/20 10:32 AM.

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Re: COVID 19 and the Piano Industry
Jack Moody #2958296 03/18/20 10:49 AM
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Originally Posted by Jack Moody
Originally Posted by j&j
One of the things we have to remember is that WHO and the CDC give us numbers and statistics but we’re not hearing anything about recovery rates, positive COVID-19 test rates, or rates of transmission. All we hear is total number of cases world wide and by country, and fatality rates. In my humble opinion if the general public self isolates for two or three weeks, we should become “over the hump” for this. There will be drive up testing centers coming soon and a vaccine for health care workers coming not soon enough but they’ve thrown tons of research effort on creating a vaccine. The Dow has tanked but I believe that it’s a good opportunity to buy great stocks at great prices. I seriously don’t believe that this is the “Pale Rider” of the Apocalypse. If I’m wrong about that, then there’s nothing I can do to stop it and worrying and fretting about something completely beyond my control is just silly. We should all just sit tight, obey restrictions on social gatherings, and spend some time with loved ones, even it’s just by phone or text. I’m appreciative of grocery store clerks and pharmacy clerks who are still on the job stocking shelves and helping people with self checkout.

👍
You have summed up my thoughts, in a way that is likely more palatable to readers.


thumb And you, Jack Moody, bring up the very questions I enjoy thinking about. And with the overall stay at home policy, we all have more time to think and study. That’s one thing that the military (so said my Dad, a decorated WWII vet) “Don’t Panic”, ”Stay Calm“, “Obey Orders”, “Think things through“).

I’m watching another remake of “War of the Worlds” and I’m thinking about the survivors and how they deal with a catastrophe.


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Re: COVID 19 and the Piano Industry
talkoftheweather #2958300 03/18/20 10:55 AM
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Besides we have all watched Zombie Apocalypse movies since we were kids. We should all be expert survivors. And if we watched Macgyver at all we can improvise if we run out of toilet paper.


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Re: COVID 19 and the Piano Industry
Jack Moody #2958322 03/18/20 11:30 AM
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Originally Posted by j&j
One of the things we have to remember is that WHO and the CDC give us numbers and statistics but we’re not hearing anything about recovery rates, positive COVID-19 test rates, or rates of transmission. All we hear is total number of cases world wide and by country, and fatality rates.


Some of these we can estimate for ourselves from the published data. e.g. I suggest we look at numbers of fatalities as a base as that is likely to be the much more accurate figure (total numbers of infected are pretty useless stats because no country measures those at all accurately and mild cases are disproportionately not included). The 'generation time' for a virus to infect someone and build up numbers sufficient to infect the next person(s) is looking like four or five days. The time to double the numbers people dying from the virus in a country is looking to be also around five days (although our government is saying about nine days). From these stats we can see that each person is probably, on average, passing on the disease to two others. If it was on average passed on to four others the doubling time for infections (and deaths) would be halved to a couple of days or so. See below for real modelling rather than my home-brew effort.

Originally Posted by j&j
In my humble opinion if the general public self isolates for two or three weeks, we should become “over the hump” for this.


I'm sorry, but that is just plain wrong. The real modelling needed to estimate the effect of isolation is complex but the model from Imperial College that our government is using has been published. There is a good (if disturbing) summary of that modelling here Modelling Summary. Caution: I do not recommend reading this if you are already panicking.

Last edited by gwing; 03/18/20 11:32 AM.
Re: COVID 19 and the Piano Industry
talkoftheweather #2958334 03/18/20 11:55 AM
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More than 200 000 000 people are suffering from Malaria and around 400 000 people die each year from this parasite....
And the earth continues to run as if everything was fine....

A new virus, now identified, ( with medication and vaccine to come soon) arrives in our capitalist countries, and suddenly, everything collapse as if it was the end of the world.

( it’s not a judgement, everything has to be done to fight it of course, whatever the financial costs ) .

Re: COVID 19 and the Piano Industry
talkoftheweather #2958346 03/18/20 12:24 PM
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Maybe I am. I know for a fact if someone tests positive for the virus their family members living under the same household are on quarantine and are instructed on disinfection techniques and isolating the sick person to one room and one bathroom. I don’t know about you but in our house when someone is sick the dishwasher is set to sanitize and we practice self isolation to other family members. I love my family but I don’t want to share their disease. Assuming globally people will follow directions and will pay attention to the 24x7 broadcasts about what to do and where to go, I’ll keep a more optimistic viewpoint. Grocery stores are already doing curbside delivery. At Urgent care you’re met outside the door. They ask if you’ve had fever, coughing. If the person answers yes they pull their car around to a tent to get tested by a health care worker in full protective gear and give them the corona virus test. If not then the person is allowed to park and enter for a different problem. It is human beings we’re talking about not domestic sheep or mice. As a country we’ve been through far worse. Again just my opinion.


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Re: COVID 19 and the Piano Industry
talkoftheweather #2958366 03/18/20 01:03 PM
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For a little lighthearted humor here’s a video of two violinists in formal dresswear playing the hymn “Nearer My God to Thee” from the movie “Titanic” in the empty toilet paper aisle.
BBC video


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Re: COVID 19 and the Piano Industry
j&j #2958376 03/18/20 01:20 PM
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Originally Posted by j&j
Maybe I am. I know for a fact if someone tests positive for the virus their family members living under the same household are on quarantine and are instructed on disinfection techniques and isolating the sick person to one room and one bathroom. I don’t know about you but in our house when someone is sick the dishwasher is set to sanitize and we practice self isolation to other family members. I love my family but I don’t want to share their disease. Assuming globally people will follow directions and will pay attention to the 24x7 broadcasts about what to do and where to go, I’ll keep a more optimistic viewpoint. Grocery stores are already doing curbside delivery. At Urgent care you’re met outside the door. They ask if you’ve had fever, coughing. If the person answers yes they pull their car around to a tent to get tested by a health care worker in full protective gear and give them the corona virus test. If not then the person is allowed to park and enter for a different problem. It is human beings we’re talking about not domestic sheep or mice. As a country we’ve been through far worse. Again just my opinion.


Maybe you are getting home delivery for groceries, but that is difficult here. I have been using Home Delivery for a long time with no problems, but now with the virus,I have been trying for days to arrange, and finally had success today with Delivery next Monday.


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Re: COVID 19 and the Piano Industry
j&j #2958383 03/18/20 02:03 PM
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Originally Posted by j&j
For a little lighthearted humor here’s a video of two violinists in formal dresswear playing the hymn “Nearer My God to Thee” from the movie “Titanic” in the empty toilet paper aisle.
BBC video


My favourite is this one from the classic 'Yes Minister' TV series of many years ago. You probably need to understand the culture of our civil service and government to realise how accurate it tended to be. This one *could* have been talking about our coronavirus strategy.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BNsTndy9CZo

Re: COVID 19 and the Piano Industry
dogperson #2958384 03/18/20 02:06 PM
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Originally Posted by dogperson
Originally Posted by j&j
Maybe I am. I know for a fact if someone tests positive for the virus their family members living under the same household are on quarantine and are instructed on disinfection techniques and isolating the sick person to one room and one bathroom. I don’t know about you but in our house when someone is sick the dishwasher is set to sanitize and we practice self isolation to other family members. I love my family but I don’t want to share their disease. Assuming globally people will follow directions and will pay attention to the 24x7 broadcasts about what to do and where to go, I’ll keep a more optimistic viewpoint. Grocery stores are already doing curbside delivery. At Urgent care you’re met outside the door. They ask if you’ve had fever, coughing. If the person answers yes they pull their car around to a tent to get tested by a health care worker in full protective gear and give them the corona virus test. If not then the person is allowed to park and enter for a different problem. It is human beings we’re talking about not domestic sheep or mice. As a country we’ve been through far worse. Again just my opinion.


Maybe you are getting home delivery for groceries, but that is difficult here. I have been using Home Delivery for a long time with no problems, but now with the virus,I have been trying for days to arrange, and finally had success today with Delivery next Monday.

We’re only doing grocery runs for necessities. Since I’m the one with a pre-existing condition l don’t do the runs. We’ve always bought non perishables in volume. I’m switching my prescriptions to mail order. Amazon is now only stocking necessities in their warehouses. I’ve postponed my non-critical dr appointment to next month and that may just become a televisit. Friends and neighbors are offering to store runs in case we get sick. We’re doing all right. Everything I’ve read says the majority of cases get well without hospitalization.


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Re: COVID 19 and the Piano Industry
gwing #2958385 03/18/20 02:10 PM
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Originally Posted by gwing
Originally Posted by j&j
For a little lighthearted humor here’s a video of two violinists in formal dresswear playing the hymn “Nearer My God to Thee” from the movie “Titanic” in the empty toilet paper aisle.
BBC video


My favourite is this one from the classic 'Yes Minister' TV series of many years ago. You probably need to understand the culture of our civil service and government to realise how accurate it tended to be. This one *could* have been talking about our coronavirus strategy.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BNsTndy9CZo


Love it! Perfect! thumb


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Re: COVID 19 and the Piano Industry
Jack Moody #2958421 03/18/20 04:13 PM
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Originally Posted by Jack Moody
Originally Posted by pianoloverus
Originally Posted by Jack Moody
Does anyone remember the pandemic of 2009?

H1N1 killed around 13,000 Americans and up to 500,000+ worldwide.

Corona has killed <100 Americans and < 8,000 total, I think.

H1n1 didnt get the same media and government response, though.
The projected number of American deaths at this point even in the best case scenario is significantly worse than for H1N1. In the worst case scenario 2M could die in the U.S. alone.

Dr. Fauci has said over and over that the most important thing is for everyone to take this seriously even if they are not likely to have a bad outcome if they get the virus.



The best case scenario is not much worse than H1N1. Thats ridiculous. There is absolutely no way someone can honestly say that right now. That's how this mass hysteria is fueled.

Remember, it started in China prior to December 2019. How long do you think it took for it to travel to the US and other places?

The numbers I listed above are confirmed deaths. Its probably been her for a while, undiagnosed. I'm sure some deaths were lumped in as flu. So its probably actually killed more, but there aren't dead bodies littering the streets. 

I'm not saying it should be ignored. I always practice good hygiene. 

I'm not dismissing the disease. People should bet cautious, not terrified. 

Death, danger and the unknown are part of l life. How many people die in auto crashes each year? Why doesnt everyone destroy their car? It would save lives.
Don't you realize the health effects of the coronavirus are, according to all knowledgeable scientists, just starting?

Re: COVID 19 and the Piano Industry
pianoloverus #2958477 03/18/20 07:44 PM
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Originally Posted by pianoloverus
Originally Posted by Jack Moody
Originally Posted by pianoloverus
Originally Posted by Jack Moody
Does anyone remember the pandemic of 2009?

H1N1 killed around 13,000 Americans and up to 500,000+ worldwide.

Corona has killed <100 Americans and < 8,000 total, I think.

H1n1 didnt get the same media and government response, though.
The projected number of American deaths at this point even in the best case scenario is significantly worse than for H1N1. In the worst case scenario 2M could die in the U.S. alone.

Dr. Fauci has said over and over that the most important thing is for everyone to take this seriously even if they are not likely to have a bad outcome if they get the virus.



The best case scenario is not much worse than H1N1. Thats ridiculous. There is absolutely no way someone can honestly say that right now. That's how this mass hysteria is fueled.

Remember, it started in China prior to December 2019. How long do you think it took for it to travel to the US and other places?

The numbers I listed above are confirmed deaths. Its probably been her for a while, undiagnosed. I'm sure some deaths were lumped in as flu. So its probably actually killed more, but there aren't dead bodies littering the streets. 

I'm not saying it should be ignored. I always practice good hygiene. 

I'm not dismissing the disease. People should bet cautious, not terrified. 

Death, danger and the unknown are part of l life. How many people die in auto crashes each year? Why doesnt everyone destroy their car? It would save lives.
Don't you realize the health effects of the coronavirus are, according to all knowledgeable scientists, just starting?



"All knowledge" scientists. What does that mean?

Exactly what do you disagree about? You seem certain that it will kill more than H1N1, even in the "best case scenario".

I acknowledge that it could, but I assert there are a lot of unknowns and the news is quick to sensationalize. People are taking preventative measures and I believe they will likely be effective and we can avoid a major outbreak.

I'm not saying that I am sure of the outcome.. It could get bad.

I said that people should be cautious, but not terrified. I'm not saying that people should disregard warnings.

The only thing that I can think of that could draw criticism, that I said, was that "many doctors believe it's been here for sometime". Many is vague, but could be misleading. I could have said, "some doctors".

I didn't mean "many" in a worldwide sense, but I can see that it could be taken that way. So, I was honest about why I said that. Basically, there were a few hospitalists in my area that feel that way.

I feel l like the first positive test in the US was probably not the first case here.

I don't post about my employment. I wouldn't have mentioned my wife's either, but I was being forthright about the small sampling of doctors that I was referring too.

Admittedly, you had a physician (dhull100) post that you are right and I am wrong, so I guess I have to concede that doctors sometimes say things that are ridiculous and untrue.😂

Just to be clear, I'm not angry with anyone on here, but I hope you are wrong about some of this, dont you?

Re: COVID 19 and the Piano Industry
talkoftheweather #2958484 03/18/20 08:05 PM
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In Canada (Ontario ) News ,a doctor mentioned that people as young as 30 are in hospital or have been in hospital seriously ill and on Ventilators.
We need to take this virus seriously, and tell others to take it seriously.

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