A extremely high bid-ask spread with almost no transactions is the definition of a failed market. I'm sure there are a lot bids in the usual 300-bucks-Christmas-present range, while the sellers expect to recoup their 3000 spent on their Clavinova.

The definition of a functioning market is actual trading happening on a regular basis. That means there is a broad selection of used models being available at any time and you can sell your own digital near those prices ("market value") almost instantly without waiting a year for that one buyer to show up.

That sort of market doesn't seem to exist for digitals it seems. A few flukes here and there don't make a market. Digitals seem to be highly illiquid goods, means: Wait ages for a buyer or try to sell quickly at an almost full loss.

From a pure monetary investor's point of view that's not a positive and called a bad investment. But we love pianos for different reasons.

I'm sure that you are correct with what constitutes a failed or functioning market. I'm not arguing that.

I'm just saying that from the point of view of the buyer, there's no functional difference between the two:

If all (relatively recent model) used DPs on the market have very high prices (except for a few outliers here and there) and you simply cannot find such a DP for a reasonably cheap price, then it doesn't matter for you where the high prices come from.

They could be the result of a failed market, where sellers expect inflated prices even though they never actually sell at these prices, but also don't sell at lower prices, because they stubbornly stick to their high expectations.

Or they could be the result of a functioning market with lots of transactions that have established that the high prices are actually the result of what other buyers are willing to pay.

The result is the same: If you want such a recent-model-but-used DP, you have to buy it at a relatively high price.

For the seller there's of course a world of difference between the two, but for the buyer, both result in expensive DPs. Well, as a buyer, if its a failed market, you can always try and wait for this one seller who loses patience and sells at a big loss. But then you've likely got a lot of competition from other buyers, so you need a lot of luck for that.

Let's not jump to conclusions. There's not enough data.

A few thoughts based on my time working for a synth/DP manufacturer's R&D group:

Technology is moving, sometimes with big strides, but the progress pales in comparison to the enormous steps taking place with higher-volume gadgets like smart phones, tablets, etc. A successful run for a keyboard is 10K units. 20K units or more is rare and considered a triumph. Even the greatest selling keyboards of all time - the DX7, Mirage, M1, Motif - didn't even begin to approach a million units sold. This affects the rate of progress. Happily, some of the developments from the big selling devices do trickle down into the keyboard market.

The most obvious advances have been with sound quality and sample memory. We now have several hardware boards like Korg Kronos and Kurz Forte that feature multi-GB piano samples. That's a pretty big deal considering the scale of the industry. But some of the coolest advances aren't as obvious (nor as glamorous). A ton of progress has been made with power supplies and keyboard actions. Both contribute to the overall weight AND reliability/longevity of a keyboard. Huge win. These advances make it possible for Casio to have a 24 lbs stage piano (PX-5S) at $999 that smokes almost anything from 10-15 years ago. I saw it firsthand at Kurzweil when we helped Fatar develop the TP40 action as a replacement to the older TP10. The difference in quality was staggering.

Regarding used boards: companies are constantly working on improving the reliability/longevity of the components used in keyboards. The older the product, the less longevity you'll see (plus you have to factor in the age of the product). With boards over 10 and especially over 15 years old, some of the components are going to have an increased chance of failing in some way. If you're looking at something of that age, do some research and check on service/support and availability of parts.

Of course.

I added this to my first post:



but it also applies to my second post. All of this is just an interesting thought experiment for me. I have no idea how it relates to reality.

Heh, not even I know if my observations are correct. It is likely that I do not observe used DPs that get posted in the morning and are sold before I look in the evening. And sometimes I do not look for a few days.

One would need to stream the ads into an database/Excel and then follow up when they vanish, at least on a sample selection.

It could be that it is all quite normal given the low number of DP sales in comparison to the acoustic pianos sold in the last 100 years. Because some of those are still sold and brought.

I can give my observations on the German market via ebay-kleinanzeigen.de.
I was looking through the offers regularly looking for a used Kawai CA 9x/6x. There are usually appr. 5 new offers per week for the Kawai CAs and they are mostly sold within 1 to 4 weeks (if the asked price is reasonable). The total number of offers is basically remaining constant with an equilibrium "new offers-sold"
For a recent "old" model 2-4 years you get approximately 70% of present price for a new one. E.g. you can presently buy a CA 97 new at approximately 2800-2900 EUR (good price). I bought my CA 95 (from 2015) 3 months ago used for 1750 EUR via ebay-kleinanzeigen.de which is a good, realistic price I think.

For a CA 93 you can get appr. 1500-1600 EUR, for a CA-91 1300-1400 EUR.
These are my observations over 2-3 months looking for a "Kawai CA-9x".

And there are much more offers for other Kawai DP and even more for Yamaha CLP/CVP.
Anyhow, Yamaha sellers think to get/demand usually higher (%)prices than Kawai ones.

I think that in Germany there is a stable (small) market for used DP, it's easy to find and buy a used DP at reasonable price, or to sell one.

What makes you assume, they are sold?

When a sell offer is made and the offer will be taken off within 1 to 3 weeks, then it usually means it has been sold (in one way or the other), why else would the seller take the offer out? An offer stays (without special retraction) at last 4 weeks and can easily (without cost) be continued for further 4 weeks. Of course, it is not necessarily sold at the indicated/asked price since they are mostly open for negotiation.
The (realistic) prices I have indicated are by experience. I have looked for a good price and made various offers to different sellers. Usually my low prices were not accepted and they sold in the mean time to others (as said by seller) and the offers taken off.

I will not pretend that I am 100% correct, but according to my (relatively intensive) market research, I believe them to be close to reality.

The asked prices are usually higher than the ones I indicated that are the ones buyer and seller can reasonably compromise on.

Nope.

Can you tell me, what YOU think it means then?

Classifieds appearing and disappearing means exactly nothing. You can't simply jump to conclusions and pretend this is "market research".

Aha, ok, and just saying "it appears and disappears without reason and with selling" is your valid (counter)argument. What's your indication of that happening (to a considerable amount)?

So the offers are - to a big part - just people that place them and withdraw them without the intention to sell such a piano and just amusing themselves by doing so? This is your argument?

Your "argument" does NOT seem any better than my "market research", I'd say.
Maybe you can back yours up?

I'll agree with Joe. Assumptions do not constitute research.

Why assume that a take-down is a sale?
On Ebay, if an item is sold it is marked SOLD.

I don't pretend that I have made a 100% valid market research. I have made my inquiries and I have seen that there is a wide activities with offers appearing and disappearing with a certain number of direct contact with buyers that always seemed genuine.

Can you give any plausible explanation why pleople take the time to place a DP sale offer and then take the time to take (explicitely) the offer away without selling?
If the offer would automatically expire OK, then maybe no sale, but when they take the offer themselves off again then I would reasonably assume that the object was sold. Maybe there are some exceptions e.g. they changed their minds and don't want to sell anymore, but I don't believe that it would be the case for most (disappearing) offers.

You say: for most cases "Why assume that a take-down is a sale?"

I ask you: for most cases "Why assume that a take-down is a NOT sale?"

What i would like to see is that digital piano's would be used to approach the optimal string-soundboardsound that is not possible in a real grand piano.
I am all for a hybrid approach where the single key tones are recorded at different volume levels and all the rest modelled.....nothing new really ??.

Let me explain.....when i attended the pianotuners/technician school in Amsterdam our teacher made a model hammer with three strings and a real sounboard...to demonstrate at the Franfurther Messe. You probably have seen those one key show models hitting an iron bar to demonstrate how the mechanism works.
This mechanism had real strings and a real soundboard producing an accurate A440 HZ.

If a soundboard was capable of floating freely on at least two sides the sound would improve.
I know it isn't to difficult to built a large soundboard and a moveable bridge and small pinblock.
Each and every string + tuned at the right pitch has to be connected and recorded, then removed so the next string can be attached and recorded.....until all 88 single and dual bass strings and multiple middle and higher strings are attached and recorded.

The result will be an extremely even result from a recording perspective and a much more flexible vibrating soundboard that is a huge plus.
All the rest of the resonances and pedal nuances should be modelled, because we have only one string at the time ready for recording.
It may sound stupid, but i really think this could work very well and the digital piano could enter territories the piano industry could only dream of....a partly floating soundboard !!
In an other topic the piano brand ''Rippen'' was mentioned....they were trying to achieve this goal (floating soundboard), but in the end all their innovation had a very negative side too.....

I understood this to be Ebay selling. You gave the link to ebay-kleinanzeigen.de, yes?That's why my reply referenced Ebay, where most unsold listings end automatically after a time, and where a sold item is marked SOLD.

Were you instead referring to non-Ebay listings?

Even if items ARE sold on Craigslist or classifieds when the listing is taken down, it's still a big jump to assume the price was near the listed price.

The best way to see what items are actually selling for, is do a search for the item on Ebay, then check the "Show only: Completed Listings" box on the side. Any items with a green price actually sold at that price. For items with a black price, the listing completed without the item being sold. It's a great way to get an idea of how much you can sell something for also, even if you're going to sell it on Craigslist, it's give you a market value for your area.

For example, the Kawai ES-100 had a many open-box units being sold by retailers for only a small amount under street price, about $560, but there were some used units being sold by private sellers in a price range of $299-350.

It's a good trick to use to find out what price something is actually going for.

Though people regularly bid on their own auctions in the hope to catch someone paying their desired price. Those items are marked as "sold" too. If you are one of the few sellers on are very low volume market, you can artificially inflate prices this way.

You say that you agree with another users opinion that my observations and conclusions (regarding the DP sale ads on ebay-kleinanzeigen) would be in principle wrong. That's why I asked you to deliver any reasoning/explanation why my conclusions would be worng to your thinking. You didn't answer this.
BTW, JoeT's "you are wrong" without any argument why is rather weak too.